Fantasy Spotlight: Is David Johnson Shot, or One of the Steals of 2020?

The biggest move of the offseason in terms of fantasy happened well before the draft, when Texans coach/GM Bill O’Brien moved his star WR DeAndre Hopkins to Arizona in exchange for RB David Johnson. The move has been mocked since it happened, but fantasy value isn’t always connected to on field effectiveness. We all loved Hopkins, and still do in Arizona. Does this trade make us fall back in love with Johnson though?

First, what do we like about Johnson, the No. 21-ranked RB? For starters, in 2016 he totaled 2,118 yards from scrimmage with 20 total touchdowns. He was once considered one of the best dual threat RBs in the league, was worth strong consideration for the No. 1 overall pick in fantasy drafts, and is, as of this writing, only 28 years old. As recently as 2018, Johnson scored 10 total touchdowns and surpassed 1,300 yards from scrimmage. He has been a workhorse, and even though injuries have depleted his production in two of the past three seasons, they haven’t been of the chronic variety.

Now, the bad. Johnson played in 16 games in 2018, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry. Yes, he scored 10 touchdowns and rescued his value to an extent, but he failed to deliver on his first round ADP, and his journey to the final numbers was a slog. Last season he wasn’t much better, trudging to the tune of 3.7 yards per carry through nine games and eventually finding himself buried on the depth chart behind Kenyan Drake, a midseason trade acquisition, and Chase Edmonds. Arizona’s offensive line was maligned last year, but their sins were largely in protecting QB Kyler Murray. As a run-blocking line, the Cardinals were just okay; Johnson’s run behind stronger units, but Drake and Edmonds were both able to post far superior numbers. So is Johnson just shot?

Probably not.

While the Cardinals were strong in short yardage situations, they ranked just 22nd overall per Football Outsiders, and averaged 4.12 Adjusted Line Yards. Meanwhile, Johnson graded out at 68.9 as a runner, and 74.5 as a receiver out of the backfield per PFF.com. It’s possible that Johnson’s style no longer matches the Cardinals’ offensive scheme, but he still has juice based on those PFF grades. A change of scenery could do him well, and it’s safe to assume the Texans feel they can help him thrive if they sent arguably the best WR in football packing for him.

Johnson has proven he can handle a three-down workload, and Houston is likely to give it to him. He was an above-average pass-blocker last season, and Houston ranked 12th in the NFL in rushing attempts. QB Deshaun Watson contributes to that, but this is a team that fed Carlos Hyde 245 attempts. Should Johnson stay healthy, he’s going to eclipse that, especially since he’ll be the focal point of the offense with Hopkins gone. The Texans replaced Hopkins with Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb, both of whom are solid players, but neither of whom is a suitable offensive centerpiece. Johnson, when he’s right, has proven he can be that.

Lastly, RBs almost always benefit from dual-threat QBs, and Watson is one of the best in the NFL. Some of Johnson’s better plays last season with Murray can show what the Texans hope they’re getting by pairing him with Watson.

At worst, the Texans’ offense and lack of star power at receiver should conspire to get Johnson double-digit touchdowns, even if he’s washed as an elite RB. There isn’t much in the way of competition for Johnson either. Duke Johnson Jr. is an excellent option, but he’s criminally underused, and the Texans have proven they don’t intend to take full advantage of his skills. It’s probably a fool’s errand to dream on another 2,000-yard campaign here, but 1,000+ yards and double-digit scores are in reach. Last season Hyde posted a 1,112-yard, six-touchdown campaign and I believe Johnson is a much better player than Hyde is. The ranking could rise throughout the offseason as drafters realize what his volume is going to be, but as of now he looks like a complete steal.