Fantasy Spotlight: Can Keenan Allen Remain An Elite WR1 Without Philip Rivers?

As the No. 18 WR in early draft prep season, Keenan Allen appears to be losing his luster as an elite player at the position. And it makes some sense. He’s been incredibly consistent, topping 1,100 yards for three straight seasons, catching more than 100 passes twice, and 97 in the other, and scoring six touchdowns exactly every year during that span. He’s still only 28 years old, so what’s with the Debbie Downer ranking?

Well, a lot has changed around him. Most notably, QB Philip Rivers is gone, and Rivers has been Allen’s QB for his entire career. Like, literally, Rivers has never missed a game that Allen has played in. Now, Allen is going to catch passes from journeyman Tyrod Taylor, rookie Justin Herbert, or some combination of the two. These QBs are going to mean more to Allen’s fantasy season than anything Allen does, so let’s figure out if one of them can have a positive impact.

Taylor is interesting as a fantasy QB. He started for three seasons in Buffalo from 2015-2017, and he was a viable fantasy QB in those seasons. Unfortunately for Allen, his value came from his rushing contributions. In that span Taylor rushed for 14 touchdowns and averaged 525 yards on the ground per game. He topped 3,000 yards twice, but barely, and managed 20 touchdowns once, in 2015. To compare, Rivers hasn’t thrown for fewer than 4,000 yards since 2006, and in 2005 and 2006 Rivers threw for more than Taylor ever has in his entire career. Taylor has never been part of a pass-heavy offense, and Allen has thrived on volume. But, we may not get much of a Taylor-led offense. The Chargers spent the sixth overall pick on Herbert, so he has a real chance to open the season as the starter.

Herbert is promising. He had his best season as a senior for Oregon, throwing for 3,471 yards and 32 touchdowns, and six interceptions, two fewer than he had thrown as a junior. Herbert also has mobility, but he saw his rushing attempts decrease from 71 to 58 from his junior to senior season, indicating that the Ducks wanted to rely on his arm. While the Chargers might see fit to utilize his rushing ability, they are far more likely to run an Allen-friendly offense with Herbert under center rather than Taylor. So yes, Allen fans should probably root for Herbert, but that doesn’t mean the outlook is rosy.

The knock on Herbert is accuracy, and just one season ago he posted a sub-60% completion rate in the Pac-12.

Inaccuracy leads to turnovers and lost possessions, which will eventually lead to a reliance on the run. Allen has thrived for years on Rivers’ volume, seeing 159, 136 and 149 targets over the past three seasons. If those targets fall, so will his elite reception totals, and likely his touchdown numbers which are already mediocre for a fantasy WR1. No matter the outcome of the QB battle this summer, the Chargers’ offense is unlikely to be better than it was last season. So even though Allen is a fantastic receiver, it’s unlikely he offers you much value as the 18th receiver off the board this year. His ceiling is probably right around this ranking, and you may even have to overpay for his name value. Not someone I’ll be targeting in 2020.