Fantasy Spotlight: Can T.Y. Hilton Ever Be Elite Again Without Andrew Luck?

T.Y. Hilton is a name that has been dropping in rankings lately coming off his worst statistical season ever in 2019. Hilton only played 10 games, posting career-lows in yards (501) and receptions (45) and giving strength to the narrative that he has been less an elite receiver in his career, and more propped up by Andrew Luck. It’s well-known that Hilton’s numbers with Luck are drastically better than without him, but a closer look reveals that’s not entirely fair.

First, most receivers would benefit a great deal from catching passes from Luck. Second, the non-Luck QBs who have thrown to Hilton are not great. Since 2012 (Hilton’s rookie season) the list of QBs not named Andrew Luck to start games are as follows: Matt Hasselbeck, Josh Freeman, Scott Tolzien, Jacoby Brissett, Brian Hoyer. The best of that group is Brissett, by a fairly wide margin, and he’s viewed by most of the league as a high-end backup. Moreover, Hilton was actually lighting up the league with Brissett until his 2019 was derailed by injury.

In the first three games of 2019, Hilton had scored four touchdowns and caught eight passes twice. He injured his quad in Week 3, sat out Week 4, had a pedestrian game vs. the Chiefs in Week 5, and rested during a Week 6 bye. In Week 7, he cut up the Texans for six catches, 74 yards and a touchdown. In Week 8, Hilton had two receptions for 54 yards when he hurt his foot and wasn’t seen again until Week 12. From that point on, Hilton was a dud and never looked the same. Still, he was well on his way to defying the perception that he was a total product of good quarterback play, and PFF.com agrees, grading him at 75.1 for the season.

He’s been a 1,000-yard receiver five times, all with Luck, and he was performing well with Brissett prior to some injuries. He will be without Luck again this season, but he will have Philip Rivers, arguably his best non-Luck QB ever.

Rivers is old, but he can still pile up stats.  His interception totals are alarming, but the man has topped 4,000 passing yards in 10 of his last 11 seasons, and played 16 games every seasons since 2006. In fact, since becoming the Chargers’ starter, Rivers has never missed a game. Even at this advanced age, with skills in decline, he’s likely to be more prolific than Brissett, and a better asset to Hilton. He’ll also be playing behind a Colts offensive line that ranked inside the Top 10 per Football Outsiders as a pass-blocking unit, giving him time to find the obvious top option in his receiving corps and covering up for his lack of mobility. Rivers also is much more willing to challenge defenses down the field; he averaged 7.8 yards per attempt as opposed to Brissett’s 6.6. While Brissett played a buttoned down, careful game that was mostly effective, Rivers has the ability to get Hilton back to his 16-yard per reception lifestyle. In 2019, Hilton’s yards per reception sank to 11, which he made up for by increasing his touchdown rate. Touchdowns are unpredictable, and Hilton’s never been an elite source of them so those chunk plays will be critical to his success this season.

Simply put, the bad rap on Hilton isn’t fair. His ranking is underselling his talent, and he’s going to wind up as a great value since folks are down on Rivers too. Hilton was not ever just a beneficiary of the great Andrew Luck. He’s a fine WR and Rivers is going to unleash him again.