Fantasy Football 2019 Team Previews: Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars
Must Own
Leonard Fournette, RB (ADP: 30): Fournette should be a first round type RB, but instead his ADP has dipped to No. 30 overall, and just inside the Top 15 at his position. The reason his ADP is even this high is sheer opportunity. Fournette averaged 20.6 carries per game as a rookie, and then 16.6 last year. That figures to continue in 2019, as his nondescript backups don’t figure to threaten his stranglehold on the lead role. For that reason, I personally have him ranked right around this value. There are many red flags though, and serious ones.
First, he’s failed to play a full season yet in the NFL, missing three games in 2017 and playing in just half a season last year. He has never averaged four yards per carry in a season either. Fournette topped 1,000 rushing yards as a rookie but it was largely based on his workload. He’s also less involved in the passing game than other elite backs. He could jump a level if the Jaguars begin to use him the way Dallas has started to deploy Ezekiel Elliott, but it’s fair to wonder whether Fournette actually has the physical upside of Zeke. Ultimately, if he can stay on the field he’s going to rush for more than 1,000 yards and probably hit double-digit touchdowns based on volume alone. Which is all you care about. He also has huge upside, so despite the red flags he’s worth the gamble at this point in drafts.
Defense/Special Teams: Jacksonville’s D/ST was a disappointment in 2018, but they remain a must-own unit. They have killers in the front seven, with Calais Campbell and Marcell Dareus serving as monstrous run stoppers while Myles Jack creates havoc behind them. CB Jalen Ramsey is an elite playmaker at his position, and there’s upside with A.J. Bouye and D.J. Hayden. The Jags are ripe for a bounce back.
Fantasy Relevant
Dede Westbrook, WR (ADP: 103): Westbrook is likely to be much more useful in PPR formats, but he could see his role increase to a point that he’s a WR2 in any format. He led the Jaguars in targets in 2018 with 101, and the next two most targeted players, Donte Moncrief and T.J. Yeldon, who combined for 160 targets, are gone. Marqise Lee is returning to the fold this year, and there’s a new QB in town, but Westbrook is going to see significantly more targets even factoring in those potentially limiting factors. It’s not all opportunity either. Westbrook caught 66 passes last season for 717 yards and he found the end zone five times, and that’s with tag team champions Blake Bortles and Cody Kessler throwing the passes. There isn’t much room for a real breakout here, but he should be a safe pick.
Handcuff(s)
Ryquell Armstead, RB (ADP: 237): Armstead, a fifth-round pick out of Temple, looks like a classic handcuff. He put up just shy of 1,100 yards as a senior at Temple with 13 touchdowns. It was the second time in his collegiate career he’d notched double-digit touchdowns, and his 5’11, 220-lb. build suggests he is tailor-made for goal line work. Armstead isn’t going to sniff the field as long as Fournette is healthy, but he’s likely worth a late stash by Fournette owners because of the injury risk.
Alfred Blue, RB (ADP: 300): Blue was signed this offseason as depth, and whenever he’s been giving notable opportunity he has always been extremely underwhelming. He’s never eclipsed 700 yards or two rushing touchdowns in his five NFL seasons, and he’s rushed for fewer than four yards per carry in four of those five campaigns. He may look like the next-in-line for Fournette, but training camp should be enough for Armstead to make it clear he’s superior.
Deep Sleepers
Nick Foles, QB (ADP: 197): Foles was brought in to stabilize a long-running deficit at QB for the Jaguars, and he’s an interesting choice. He’s often put up numbers when given the chance. In 2013 he threw 27 touchdowns and was picked off just twice in a ridiculous season. Last year he completed 72.3% of his passes in relief of Carson Wentz and engineered a fairly deep playoff run, one season after winning a Super Bowl for the Eagles once Wentz got hurt. Now, though, he’s left the comfort of the Eagles’ system and talent. He has Fournette at RB, which may or may not be great. His receiving corps has no one of Alshon Jeffery’s caliber, let alone Zach Ertz, and certainly lacks the quality behind them. We are more likely to see him revert to 2015-2016 Foles, when he was decidedly mediocre for the Rams and Chiefs and threw 10 touchdowns against 10 picks in 14 combined games. I’m not interested in Foles outside of a QB2 in two-QB or superflex formats.
Marqise Lee, WR (ADP: 239): Lee, who missed all of 2018, is likely going to be the No. 1 receiver for the Jaguars’ offense. That’s not really too inspiring though, as this is probably a low-volume passing offense, with a subpar quarterback who averaged seven air yards per pass attempt in 2018. Lee is a downfield threat without a passer who can get the ball down the field. He has some potential to be a WR2, but I’m not particularly excited about him. With Foles at the helm, Westbrook is more likely to thrive.