Fantasy Football 2019 Team Previews: Indianapolis Colts

Indianapolis Colts

Must Own

T.Y. Hilton, WR (ADP: 26): Hilton and Andrew Luck make a great team. In 2017, Hilton’s numbers were a letdown of sorts for fantasy owners. In 2018, with Luck back for a full season, he caught 76 passes for 1,270 yards and six touchdowns in just 14 games. Skills-wise, few receivers are in his league and he plays with an elite QB in a high-powered offense. There’s nothing not to like about Hilton, who can be a strong WR1. The only knock, and the one flaw that keeps him from being among the truly top options, is a lack of touchdowns. Hilton’s never scored more than seven times in any of his seven seasons. But that’s okay. His ceiling may be low-end WR1, but that’s also pretty much his floor.

Marlon Mack, RB (ADP: 30): Mack was impressive in 2018 once he was given the reins, finishing the season with 908 yards and nine rushing touchdowns while averaging 4.7 yards per carry. Over a full 16 games, Mack should easily surpass 1,000 yards and break into the double-digit touchdown echelon. Unfortunately, the presence of Nyheim Hines is going to prevent him from breaking into the top tier of RB1s. Mack hasn’t shown anything as a receiver, and Hines’ role in this offense figures to be a passing-down back. That means Mack operates at a disadvantage in comparison to elite, three-down backs, and he’s also going to be vulnerable at times to bad game scripts. This ADP is about right.

Andrew Luck, QB (ADP: 45): Luck is rising on draft boards, and he’s now the No. 2 QB after Patrick Mahomes. There was an argument for him at No. 1 at the position before news broke that Tyreek Hill wouldn’t be suspended. For all the love I throw at QBs who can run, there’s still a place for guys like Luck, who thrive off massive volume. Last season Luck’s 39 touchdowns were second in the NFL only to Mahomes, and he was also Top 5 in passing yards. Luck’s 639 attempts were a career-high, and he also completed a career-best 67.3% of those attempts. Luck is a super-talented QB who is somehow improving, with some of the best skill position players in football surrounding him. I’m probably not going to have Luck because of the tremendous value late at the position, but if he starts falling into the Round 6ish area he’s worth shifting strategy.

Eric Ebron, TE (ADP: 70): Ebron is a tricky case. He is very talented, a former Top 10 overall pick in the NFL Draft, and he’s got a QB who loves throwing to tight ends. He’s also sharing time with another solid tight end, and posted the kind of stat line that’s historically very difficult to replicate. His 66 catches and 750 yards are above-average for the position, but his 13 touchdowns are frightening. While it was no doubt phenomenally fun to own him last season, it’s hard to predict that kind of TD volume to repeat. The Colts addressed their wide receiver corps in the draft and free agency, and they’ll have Jack Doyle back at TE as well. Ebron’s career-high TD total was five before last season, so even a regression back to six or seven scores dramatically affects his value. Ebron is the 7th tight end off the board, which is about right, but No. 70 overall is too early to go after this level of TE. If he gets taken, live with it, and draft a high-upside guy later on.

Defense/Special Teams: The Colts were quietly among the best fantasy defenses last season, largely due to their stinginess against the run. Darius Leonard and Malik Hooker are the studs leading the way, and they’ve added Justin Houston to bolster the pass rush. Dominant defenses are hard to find these days, so draft the consistently good ones.

Fantasy Relevant

Parris Campbell, WR (ADP: 140): Campbell, a physical freak, is going to have a big rookie season. I am typically not too high on rookie receivers, and I think that Campbell’s rookie year will be good, not great, but he’s in an ideal situation to succeed. Luck is one of the best QBs in football, Hilton will draw the opposing team’s best coverage, and Mack gives the Colts a running game that must be respected. That means several one-on-one opportunities a week for Campbell, who is going to be way too athletic for one corner most weeks. He’s already drawing rave reviews, and his main competition for the No. 2 receiver job, Devin Funchess, is underwhelming. I’m not sure he will be much of a PPR star, but I see Campbell having FLEX value in those formats, and WR2 upside in half-point PPR and standard leagues.

Devin Funchess, WR (ADP: 136): Funchess is one of the threats to Ebron’s TD total. I’m not a big believer in Funchess’ talent, but he’s a large body who caught eight touchdown passes just two seasons ago. I envision Mohamed Sanu-esque numbers for him in Indianapolis, slightly siphoning some value from both Ebron and Campbell.

Handcuff(s)

Nyheim Hines, RB (ADP: 147): Hines is an interesting option for PPR and half-PPR players. Last season he averaged just 3.7 yards per carry and scored two touchdowns, paltry production that probably rules him out of the picture for ever controlling this backfield, even if Mack goes down. He was targeted 81 times in the passing game though, where he caught 77.8% of those targets for 425 yards. That role will expand for him as he’s now more familiar with the offense, and the best-case scenario is a James White-like breakout. I’m not predicting that, but it’s possible. Hines doesn’t need to be specifically targeted by Mack owners, but he has a shot at standalone value for all fantasy owners.

D’Onta Foreman, RB (ADP: 134): Foreman’s ADP is likely to keep sinking after he was cut by the Texans, because he’s far more unlikely to unseat Marlon Mack than he was Lamar Miller. And for the record, I didn’t deem it very likely he would usurp Miller either. Foreman has upside, but a torn Achilles is a serious injury and clearly he wasn’t making enough progress for the Texans to even keep him on the team despite a complete hodgepodge behind him on the depth chart. I

Jordan Wilkins, RB (ADP: 337): Wilkins was efficient with limited work last season, averaging 5.6 yards per carry on just 60 attempts. He would need an injury to Mack to have any shot at playing time, and now he’s facing stiffer competition for the backup role in Foreman, as Spencer Ware was fighting an injury. I think Wilkins might be capable of more than Foreman with a real workload, but it’s impossible to know which guy would be the beneficiary of a Mack injury.

Deep Sleepers

Jack Doyle, TE (ADP: 213): Doyle is a solid TE who will require an injury to Ebron to have standalone fantasy value. Should that injury occur, however, he will immediately become a Top 10 option at the position.