Fantasy Football 2019 Team Previews: Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs
Must Own
Travis Kelce, TE (ADP: 15): Kelce has assumed Rob Gronkowski’s mantle as the clear No. 1 at the TE position, and his ADP has crept nearly to Gronk’s peak. Nearly is the operative word here, however, as Kelce’s early-second round ADP is much more palatable than when Gronk was creeping into the Top 5. At this point there are few players as consistent as Kelce; he’s topped 1,000 receiving yards for three consecutive seasons, and shed his low-TD label with eight scored in 2017 and 10 last year. 2019 will be his second with Pat Mahomes running the show, and he’ll still have Tyreek Hill present to stretch the field and keep defenses from game planning to stop him. This ADP is probably a bit too high for me personally, but it’s not a reach to grab him where he’s currently going. I’ll probably change my mind if he starts popping up in Round 1, though.
Tyreek Hill, WR (ADP: 20): Hill was a player I’ve been completely avoiding up until recently, because I was convinced he’d be missing the entire season, or at least a tremendous chunk of it based on his off-field child abuse allegations. Now that the NFL has helpfully removed the fog from that situation, and made it clear he would be missing zero games, we can safely get excited about his fantasy prospects. He’s now in the Top 20 overall, and eighth at WR, and I think he might still be undervalued.
Hill has made a significant jump every year since he was drafted, and last season was phenomenal. He caught 87 passes for 1,479 yards and 12 touchdowns. He was targeted 137 times by Patrick Mahomes, who might be the best QB in football. He caught 5.4 passes per game, at a 17-yard per catch clip. He’s arguably the most terrifying playmaker at his position, save perhaps Odell Beckham, and he’s in an offense that will probably lean on him even more with RB Kareem Hunt gone. Hill can absolutely finish the year as the best WR in football, and I think he’s underdrafted at No. 20. He’s not getting suspended, so go out and spend big on him.
Damien Williams, RB (ADP: 24): It’s been made clear that Williams is the guy in the Chiefs’ backfield, which means he will be a prized player in drafts. Kareem Hunt was a superstar from Day 1 in this offense, and Williams was dominant once he took over from Hunt last year. He averaged 5.1 yards per carry last season, and 5.97 yards in the three games he started. He also averaged 4.7 receptions in those games, proving that the Chiefs won’t be shy in using him in much the same fashion as they used Hunt. Still, I’m not completely sold. While it’s true that opportunity trumps talent, and Williams will definitely have lots of opportunity, it’s hard for me to ignore his lengthy track record of mediocrity and get excited solely because of his role.
Prior to being a late-season grenade thrown into last season’s fantasy playoffs, Williams had previously shown zero indication he was a quality NFL running back. Undrafted out of Oklahoma, Williams toiled in Miami since 2014, never breaking four yards per carry until last year with Kansas City. Williams has been a moderate contributor in the passing game before, but never to the level he showed in the Chiefs’ souped up attack. It’s certainly possible that Andy Reid’s offense, and the surrounding talent, are so good that Williams is just a legitimate RB1 while he’s in KC. I think he’ll be very good, but 14th RB off the board seems like too pricy for someone of his talent.
Patrick Mahomes, QB (ADP: 21): Mahomes’ ADP has risen steadily all offseason, and has peaked now at No. 21, putting him in the second round of 12-team leagues. I think Mahomes is phenomenal, but there’s no chance I’m touching him at this ADP. For context, the No. 2 QB off the board, Andrew Luck, is going 50th overall. While the gap between Mahomes and other QBs was that vast in 2019, you’re playing with fire to bank on that happening again.
I’ll be the bad guy here and make the case for Mahomes being a disappointment at No. 21 overall. Last year Mahomes tossed 50 touchdowns, which is absolutely ridiculous. He’s surrounded by awesome pass catchers, and his offense is designed for him to make it rain, but he was hitting paydirt on 8.6% of his pass attempts. That rate is just not sustainable. For reference, Carson Wentz was seeing his ADP skyrocket last preseason after throwing 33 touchdowns in 13 games, posting a touchdown percentage of 7.4%. Wentz crashed down to Earth last year, tossing just 21 touchdowns through 11 games and seeing that mark fall to 5.2%. This doesn’t mean cross Mahomes off your draft board; it simply means what he accomplished last season is of the highest order of difficulty, and right now you’re paying up with a second round pick and hoping he maintains outlier production.
We also can’t ignore the fact that he’s replacing All-Pro RB Kareem Hunt with Damien Williams, a career backup who couldn’t wrest a full workload in Miami. Williams’ numbers last season were good, but he ain’t no Kareem Hunt. I take no issue with anyone who has Mahomes as their No. 1 QB, but unless he starts falling to the fourth round or so I’m absolutely priced out of the Mahomes market.
Sammy Watkins, WR (ADP: 77): Hill’s return spiked my optimism for Watkins into the turf. I’ve long been a believer in Watkins’ talent, and the opportunity for him to slide into the role of WR1 for Mahomes had me drooling. Alas, Hill is back to soak up targets with Kelce, leaving Watkins as a WR2/3 type with the highest of upside. When he’s upright, Watkins can be as good as any receiver in football. But he hasn’t made it through a full slate since 2014, and with this many mouths to feed in Kansas City, it’s hard to imagine him breaking out. Look for him to deliver around 55-60 yards per game and have some multi-TD efforts mixed in with total flameouts.
Fantasy Relevant
Mecole Hardman, WR (ADP: 160): Hardman is the biggest loser from the Hill non-suspension, as he went from potentially filling Hill’s shoes as a Mahomes deep threat, to a player likely to struggle to even get on the field. Hardman did not post huge reception numbers at Georgia, but he consistently averaged more than 15 yards per catch and upped his TD total to seven as a junior. His 4.3 speed in the 40-yard dash means he’s going to flash here and there, and likely have monstrous, week-winning efforts for daily fantasy players. We’ll never know when these games are coming, however, so at this point it’s hard to recommend drafting him no matter how talented he may be. Hardman may one day be a fantasy star, but I do not expect it to be in 2019.
Handcuff(s)
Carlos Hyde, RB (ADP: 132): 44 running backs are being drafted ahead of Hyde, who is a complete afterthought at this point in the preseason. I am increasingly on an island, but I’m much higher on Hyde’s prospects. Hyde has been fairly ineffective the last two seasons, but he has had spurts of dominance in his career, unlike Damien Williams, and Hyde is in the same high-powered offense. While Williams is a presumably better pass-catcher, Hyde has a 70.8% catch rate for his career, and peaked as a receiver in 2017 when he caught 59 passes for the 49ers. Anyone owning Williams should find room for Hyde on their roster too; even if Williams dominates touches, Hyde is the clear backup and anyone receiving steady work in this offense should be owned.
Deep Sleepers
Demarcus Robinson, WR (ADP: 277): Robinson is listed as the starting outside receiver opposite Watkins in this offense, and any regular member of this offense is notable. Robinson is not going to be on the field in two-WR sets, but that doesn’t mean he has zero value in deep leagues. Robinson improved in 2018, catching four touchdowns as opposed to zero in 2018, and racking up 76 more yards on six fewer targets. Robinson is an emergency FLEX type in deep leagues, with upside for WR3 value in the event of a Watkins or Tyreek Hill injury.