Fantasy Football 2019 Sleepers: 5 Fantastic ADP Values

We stress about the top of our draft the most during draft season, but many times we can be saved by our late-round values. The most satisfying part of fantasy football is drafting these late gems and watching them blossom into major contributors. Here are five players I am certain will outperform their ADP.

*All ADP is courtesy of FantasyPros.

Kalen Ballage, RB, Dolphins (ADP: 118) Ballage is still being drafted outside the Top 40 at his position, despite being pretty clearly the starter ahead of Kenyan Drake at this point and Drake recovering from a camp injury. While it’s true that Ballage is unproven, it is well-established that Drake isn’t trusted to carry a full workload. Even before he was hurt, Ballage was getting reps ahead of Drake in camp. And, for what it’s worth, Ballage has flashed major potential in his limited work.

As a rookie, Ballage rushed only 36 times, but he racked up 191 yards (a healthy 5.1 yards per carry) and scored a touchdown. He also caught nine passes for 56 yards on 11 targets. While he won’t become a workhorse with Drake in the picture, he could very well have the larger half of the time share. Even with just 50% of the carries, that will be valuable volume in an offense with weak pass-catchers and figures to rely on the running game. The names going around Ballage are mostly handcuffs: Matt Breida, Adrian Peterson, Darwin Thopmpson, Tony Pollard, Jerick McKinnon and Jaylen Samuels are the next six RBs off the board. Those players all require an injury to maybe have the value that Ballage possesses right now.

Geronimo Allison, WR, Packers (ADP: 120) Allison appeared to have taken a major step in his development last season before injury ended his 2018 abruptly. Through four games Allison had put up 303 yards and two touchdowns on 20 catches, while averaging 15.2 yards per grab. His 60.6 yards per game were a career-high by a lot, and, most importantly, he’s locked into the slot role for Green Bay where Randall Cobb used to thrive. That No. 2 pass-catcher role is extremely valuable in an Aaron Rodgers offense, and despite some being down on Rodgers, he remains elite.

Rodgers’ TD numbers fell last season, but he still threw for 4,442 yards with only two interceptions on almost 600 attempts. Part of that was Rodgers having one reliable pass-catcher; Allison went down early, and Marquez Valdez-Scantling was only a rookie. If Rodgers has a similar seasons – and he should be motivated to perform for new head coach Matt LaFleur – Allison should be in for a huge season that will vastly outperform this low ADP.

Kirk Cousins, QB, Vikings (ADP: 131) The disrespect to Kirk Cousins this season is real. I get it that he’s probably not a truly “elite” NFL quarterback, but in fantasy who cares? This guy threw for almost 4,300 yards last year with 30 touchdowns, and he brings back arguably the best wide receiver tandem in the NFL (Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs). Yes, the Vikings ran the ball more once they switched offensive coordinators, but Cousins’ pass attempts are still going to flirt with 600 regardless of who is calling the plays. Why would you not want to chuck it to Thielen and Diggs?

Right now Cousins is 18th off the board, despite ranking in the Top 10 in pass attempts (4th), passing yards (10th) and passing touchdowns (9th) and returning all of his key skill players. This ADP flat out doesn’t make any sense, and he’s the strongest argument in fantasy for waiting at QB.

T.J. Hockenson, TE, Lions (ADP: 161): Hockenson doesn’t have the incredible stats you’d expect from a guy who was drafted in Round 1 as a TE, but you have to forgive him, because he was sharing the position with another first round pick (Noah Fant). Rookie tight ends don’t typically pop, but Hockenson could be an exception. At 6’5, 251 lbs. he ran a 4.70 40-yard dash, and was measured at 37.5 inches on his vertical leap. He is a monster athlete, and his blocking is already competent enough for him to be a full-time player.

Per his scouting report, he is advanced in terms of using his frame to catch passes and create separation, and he also has good hands. He has the makings of a red zone beast, but he also has the ability to make big plays in the middle of the field. He is an all-around weapon, who is refined enough to take on the NFL from Day 1. With Golden Tate gone, it’s easy to imagine Hockenson soaking up a lot of the shorter routes Tate ran, as well as becoming Matthew Stafford’s first look near the end zone.

Chris Thompson, RB, Redskins (ADP: 230): Thompson is slated for limited work in an offense that might be complete butt. So how is he going to be a value? First, Thompson may actually be the best pass-catcher on the Redskins.

The receiving corps consists of Paul Richardson, Josh Doctson and Trey Quinn. Not inspiring. Tight end Jordan Reed is talented, but has an injury history longer than a CVS receipt, and he’s in the concussion protocol as of this writing. Thompson is rarely healthy anymore, but when he was in 2017 he maximized his opportunities. That year, he caught 39 passes for 510 yards and four scores in 10 games, while also averaging 4.6 yards per carry when he was given the chance to run. He piled up 804 yards from scrimmage in only 10 games. He wasn’t quite as explosive last year despite seeing similar work, but the Redskins’ offensive line was utterly destroyed in 2018. Thompson can’t break out into an RB2 role, because he simply won’t touch the ball enough, but he could turn into an RB2 in full-PPR formats, especially if Derrius Guice doesn’t prove to be a great pass-catcher.