Fantasy Football 2019 Team Previews: Oakland Raiders

Oakland Raiders

Must Owns

Antonio Brown, WR (ADP: 22): Brown has been statistically the best wide receiver in the NFL for years, but his ADP has dropped due to several factors. First, he’s leaving one of the best annual offenses in football, the Steelers, for the first time in his career. He’s joining a much shakier offense, and catching passes from Derek Carr, not future Hall of Famer Ben Roethlisberger. Oakland doesn’t have the culture, the infrastructure, or, frankly, the surrounding talent that helped Brown in Pittsburgh, and so it’s reasonable to expect his numbers to drop.

Second, Brown has been erratic for the past year. He forced his way off the Steelers by behaving like a malcontent, at one point chucking a football at Roethlisberger and no-showing practices. In the offseason he bleached his mustache, underwent cryotherapy and nearly ruined his feet, and has waged an insane battle to keep wearing an old, unsafe helmet. Something appears to be happening to Brown; it isn’t my place to openly speculate, but I’ve taken it upon myself to dole out fantasy advice. This ADP is still okay because of Brown’s unbelievable track record, but I am becoming nervous about him. I’d continue to treat him as a WR1, and hope this insanity is a ploy to make “Hard Knocks” interesting.  

Josh Jacobs, RB (ADP: 38): Jacobs, a first round pick out of Alabama, is being drafted with confidence. And they should, because Jacobs projects as a three-down workhorse who can be trusted in the passing game, and he has very little in the way of competition. Jacobs’ numbers at Alabama aren’t startling, but that’s because he split work with Patriots’ RB Damien Harris. Last season was Jacobs’ first as the primary back, however, and he responded by averaging 5.3 yards per carry in the SEC and scoring 14 total touchdowns.

This ADP is slightly high for two reasons. First, Oakland’s offense is spotty, and it’s not that easy to rebuild an offensive line in one offseason. This collection of linemen could’ve been sued for the attempted murder of Derek Carr last season, and they didn’t do much of note to improve. Second, Jacobs has never carried the ball more than 120 times in a season, so he’ll have to be spelled. There’s no chance of him being overtaken by any other RBs on the roster, but he’s not going to see the level of work that other elite backs will. This limits his upside just a bit, and probably excludes him from the RB1 conversation. Jacobs is more of a safe, higher-end RB2.

Fantasy Relevant

Tyrell Williams, WR (ADP: 133): Williams has been a big play threat for the Chargers since 2015, but has only shown to be a consistently fantasy relevant receiver once in four seasons. Williams was targeted 119 times in 2016, responding with 1,059 yards (his only 1,000-yard season) and seven touchdowns. Williams failed to receive even 70 targets in the next two seasons, and he faded into relative obscurity in the Chargers’ crowded offense. Oakland has no such crowding issues. Williams is the clear No. 2 receiver for the Raiders, and he should be their primary deep threat if they’ve learned from his career mark of 16.3 yards per reception. Brown is clearly the top dog in this offense, but Oakland is missing Jared Cook and Jordy Nelson from last season, who combined for 189 targets. If Williams can get the ball thrown his was 100+ times he’s going to return WR2 value, and he’s going 57th at the position.

Handcuff(s)

Doug Martin, RB (ADP: 300): Martin showed a pulse last season with the Raiders, rushing for 4.2 yards per carry and managing four touchdowns. Should Jacobs go down, Martin will clearly be the back to own, and he makes sense for Jacobs owners at the end of the draft. Otherwise, he’s safe to ignore. He’s by no means a must-own handcuff.

Deep Sleepers

Derek Carr, QB (ADP: 174): Optimism about Carr seems to have pretty much died league-wide, so this is a career-defining season coming up. Carr has been maligned as a dink-and-dunker, and the stats back that up, but he’s also been playing behind a putrid offensive line and working with subpar skill players. We aren’t too far removed from 2016 when he spent much of the season looking like a stealth MVP candidate. This season Jon Gruden has set him up with Brown and Williams, two players who can do damage deep down the field, and also hooked him up with a highly-regarded RB whom he can also dump off to. I don’t have him ranked very high, but when it comes to late-round QBs, Carr has a bit more upside than most. It is still too early to completely write him off.

Hunter Renfrow, WR (ADP: 391): Renfrow appears to have solidified his bid to be the primary slot receiver, which could be a busy role if Carr continues to shy away from deep throws. Renfrow has just about no upside in terms of being a dominant fantasy option, but he could easily become a player who rounds out a full-PPR receiving corps. He’s pretty much free of charge at this point, and there’s an outside chance of him becoming a weekly FLEX/WR3 option in deep leagues.