Fantasy Football 2019 Team Previews: Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles
Must Owns
Zach Ertz, TE (ADP: 28): Ertz is an elite tight end, plain and simple. There are some worries that he will see his production dip in 2019 due to the plethora of options in this offense, but nothing changes the fact that he’s the most potent of Carson Wentz’s weapons. Ertz’s 116 catches were the most he’s ever had in his career by a mile, and that may creep back down, but I’d be surprised if he wasn’t flirting with 100 catches. His struggles with scoring touchdowns are long forgotten after back-to-back eight-touchdown campaigns, and he presumably has a healthy Wentz entering the season. This ADP is fine, and you’ll be happy as an Ertz owner.
Alshon Jeffery, WR (ADP: 66): Touchdowns will be there for Jeffery, but the question for him will be receptions and yardage in determining if he is a top wide receiver or simply a solid WR2. Jeffery has toiled in the 50-65 catch range since 2015, and consistently been between 780-850 receiving yards. Injuries have factored into these lower-than-expected numbers, but they didn’t change much in 2017 when he made it through a full 16-game slate. Yes, Jeffery has a lot of upside based on his talent, but he’s shown us who he is. In a crowded offense, Jeffery is likely to bring more of the same, with some potential downside if his touchdown numbers drop. This ADP is about right.
Miles Sanders, RB (ADP: 71): Sanders, a rookie out of Penn State, is generating buzz because he projects as a contributor both on the ground and through the air, which would minimize the need for Howard to get much work. If he earned a three-down, workhorse role, Sanders would provide immense value on this ADP. He did tote the rock 220 times as a junior at Penn State, so he’s not a stranger to a demanding workload. Howard is probably too good of a player to just be sidelined by a rookie, so Sanders could have a season similar to the one Rashaad Penny had last year in which he flashed often, but failed to string together consistently good efforts. I have Sanders and Howard ranked similarly, but this ADP feels a bit early for the rookie.
Jordan Howard, RB (ADP: 87): The value Howard returns on this ADP will be touchdown-dependent, as he’s unlikely to play a role in Philadelphia’s passing game. Howard has received consistent work in his first three NFL seasons, and has generally been a 1,000-yard back (or close) with that workload. He has posted back-to-back seasons with nine touchdowns, and should be in double-digits if that’s his role with the Eagles. He did, however, experience an alarming drop to 3.7 yards per carry last season which basically led to the Bears moving on. If that continues, Howard may not see the necessary workload to hit that 1,000-yard mark, and thus makes him less valuable. Still, he should score a bunch of touchdowns at bare minimum, placing him squarely in the RB2 conversation. There’s not much difference between his ceiling and floor, it’s just where he falls in the RB2 pile.
Fantasy Relevant
Carson Wentz, QB (ADP: 76): Wentz’s ADP is rising as the hype builds for the Eagles’ offense. It didn’t feel like Wentz was the same last year coming off his injuries, but outside of failing to sustain the unsustainable touchdown percentage he posted in 2017, he was statistically better than the previous campaign. Wentz’s completion percentage leapt up almost 10 points, he averaged 26 more yards through the air, and did not become more turnover prone. Now, he’s returning his top two targets from 2018, and the team has added a deep threat (DeSean Jackson) a red zone threat (J.J. Arcega-Whiteside), and revamped his backfield. No. 76 overall is a bit earlier than I want to take my QB, but it’s not a bad time to grab this kind of potential.
DeSean Jackson, WR (ADP: 124): D-Jax is back in Philly, and even though he’ll turn 33 during the season he remains fast AF. He’s been a fantasy roller coaster since leaving the Eagles in 2013, and while he has big upside, he’s also a player who has never been a target monster and is now a third option at best. His big-play capability is fun, but I don’t see how he can be consistent enough to serve as a no-brainer star from week to week. Jackson is a strong WR3 in deep leagues, but I don’t know that you’ll feel confident starting him in any given week either.
Handcuff(s)
Wendell Smallwood, RB (ADP: 343): Smallwood is more versatile than Josh Adams, and performed better than Corey Clement in 2018, so he’s the likeliest bet to take the lion’s share of work after Philly’s top two RBs. With that said, he’s not going to see the field very much without an injury to Sanders or Howard, and even then the non-injured RB would probably ascend to a fuller workload. There’s no need to draft or think about Smallwood at this point in time.
Deep Sleepers
Nelson Agholor (WR, ADP: 200): Agholor was better than you realized last year, catching 64 passes for 736 yards and four touchdowns. It just goes to show you the difference four touchdowns make, as he had nearly identical stats in 2017 but with double the end zone trips. Agholor is a solid player with explosiveness, but he hasn’t made a big splash and he seems poised to have his role reduced based on the addition of Arcega-Whiteside. Outside of deep full-PPR leagues, I’m ignoring Agholor in drafts.
JJ Arcega-Whiteside, WR (ADP: 212): Arcega-Whiteside is a rookie I’m excited about. He’s a huge receiver out of Stanford, and he caught 14 touchdown passes as a senior. His highlight reel is just a compilation of him bodying smaller DBs, and he’s bigger than most NFL DBs too. There’s some Mike Evans energy going on here. I’d be fully recommending everyone to reach for him if he wasn’t on the Eagles; it’s great that he has Wentz throwing the passes, but he’s trying to break through on a team with Jeffery and Ertz both excelling in the red zone. Arcega-Whiteside would be someone I target big time in dynasty drafts, but I think his value is somewhat limited in 2019 beyond very deep three-WR formats.
Dallas Goedert, TE (ADP: 231): I believe Goedert is a good player, but I don’t believe he will be rosterable as long as Ertz is on this team and healthy. Ertz is simply too good a player to take targets away from for someone at his position, even if that player is Dallas Goedert. I’d rush to add him though if a malady strikes Ertz and renders him unable to suit up.