Fantasy Football 2019 Team Previews: Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers
Must Owns
James Conner, RB (ADP: 9): Conner was the big winner of 2018’s Le’Veon Bell holdout, grabbing the reins of the Steelers backfield from Week 1 and never letting go. He finished the season with 1,470 yards from scrimmage and 13 total touchdowns, mildly embarrassing Bell in the process and making him seem like potentially a product of the Pittsburgh offense rather than the standalone best RB in football. Now though, Conner is in an offense that doesn’t have Antonio Brown running routes, so he’ll be tested in his own right.
Last season should be enough to convince fantasy owners of his talent, and history tells us that head coach Mike Tomlin is going to give Conner as much work as humanly possible if he’s the guy. The opportunity alone in this offense makes him a high pick, but Conner happens to also be a very good player. I’m comfortable drafting Conner in Round 1.
Juju Smith-Schuster, WR (ADP: 16): Smith-Schuster has had a prolific start to his career, notching seven touchdowns in back-to-back seasons and last year nearly doubling his reception total (111) and racking up 1,426 yards. He could be poised for even bigger numbers in 2019, as he’s ascended to the No. 1 receiver role with Brown departed. Smith-Schuster can also expect to see teams’ top CB shadowing him now, and coverages designed to take him out of the game plan. He’s got elite numbers to lean on, and I’m comfortable drafting him at this ADP, but there is a bit more risk to Smith-Schuster than some other WRs I’d be considering in this range. There’s also more upside.
Vance McDonald, TE (ADP: 84): Antonio Brown took a ton of targets with him to Oakland, and outside of Smith-Schuster, no one stands to gain more than Vance McDonald. Last season was the best of McDonald’s career, with 50 catches, 610 yards and four touchdowns. With Brown gone, Ben Roethlisberger is going to need to find new red zone targets, which McDonald became in 2018. The hope is that McDonald is a more athletic version of Heath Miller, Big Ben’s longtime tight end who peaked in 2012 with a 71-catch, eight-touchdown season. Maybe Big Ben spreads it around too much for McDonald to get to eight scores, but the consistent targets and yardage aren’t easy to find at TE without paying up. This ADP is reasonable.
Fantasy Relevant
Ben Roethlisberger, QB (ADP: 98): Roethlisberger is a confusing fantasy option. He just set career highs in pass attempts (675), completions (452), yards (5,129) and touchdowns (34). He averaged 320.6 yards per game, and also made it through a full slate. In fact, Big Ben has only missed three games in the last three years, poking a hole in the “Big Ben is injury prone” narrative. He is also 37 years old, entering Year 2 sans Le’Veon Bell, and lost arguably the best WR in football this offseason. Things are going to get harder for Big Ben; he’ll have four games against the Ravens and Browns, who may have elite defenses, and he also threw 16 picks, his most since 2015.
Roethlisberger was able to survive without Bell, but the loss of Brown will be significant. As equipped as Smith-Schuster is to be a No. 1 option, he ain’t Brown, and there’s also a much steeper drop off from Smith-Schuster to the rest of the receiving corps than there was from Brown to Smith-Schuster. All these factors, combined with Roethlisberger giving you zero as a rusher means he’s a matchup play, primarily in home games. Pair him up with an upside guy like Lamar Jackson and take two bites at the apple.
James Washington, WR (ADP: 115): Washington, a second rounder in last year’s draft, made very little impact as a rookie. While Brown moving on should clear up a spot for him to take over the No. 2 role, the Steelers signed Donte Moncrief this offseason and he’s drawn high praise throughout the spring. At this point the ADP seems incredibly high for a player who was very good in college, but hasn’t shown us anything at the NFL level yet. The ADP is indicative of trusting any pass-catcher in Pittsburgh who will see targets; that’s fine logic, but I’m not seeing any indicator it’s Washington who will see those targets. I’m avoiding him and I think this ADP is very inflated.
Donte Moncrief, WR (ADP: 135): Moncrief has never quite put it all together to be a dominant receiver, and it seems like he probably never will, but he could be a productive one in this offense. As a Colt, Moncrief was able to be a red zone option, scoring 13 touchdowns combined in 2015 and 2016. In his final season in Indy, Moncrief transformed into a deep threat, sacrificing his touchdowns for five additional yards per catch. With enough targets, Moncrief could break back into the 60-70 catch range, but more importantly, he could bat his eyelids at a double-digit touchdown season. I’m not counting on that, but it’s possible. And he’s far more proven than Washington, who is inexplicably going 20 picks earlier.
Handcuffs
Jaylen Samuels, RB (ADP: 134): Samuels is a big boy who saw very limited action in 2018, but was impressive in his short spurts. He caught a shade under 90% of his targets in the passing game, and averaged 4.6 yards on 56 rushing attempts. From Weeks 11-13, when he was the primary back for an injured Conner, he averaged 5.3 yards per carry, four receptions per game and more than 100 yards from scrimmage. Conner owners should absolutely handcuff him with Samuels, who would be a sought-after waiver wire pickup if an injury happens.
Deep Sleepers
Dionate Johnson, WR (ADP: 265): Johnson, a rookie out of Toledo, is a big-play type who is reminiscent of Martavis Bryant – on the field. He had a 13-touchdown season in his second year at Toledo, and averaged 16.6 yards per reception there. Johnson could very well slide his way into that role I’m penciling in Moncrief for, in which case he’d likely be one of the top bargains in all fantasy. However, it’s more likely that Johnson flashes a few times but isn’t anywhere near consistent enough to be rostered. That said, he’s a sneaky good dynasty option.