Fantasy Football 2019 Team Previews: Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills
Must Own
LeSean McCoy, RB (ADP: 99): McCoy is the clear-cut RB1 for the Bills entering the 2019 season, so for a lead back expected to eat up the majority of the work Shady’s ADP is pretty low. There are reasons for this. In 2018, McCoy was the clear-cut RB1 entering the season and the backfield was far less crowded. Still, he averaged just 11.5 attempts per game, barely factored into the passing game, and saw his yards per carry freefall to 3.2. McCoy was terrible, and he only scored three touchdowns all season. Fantasy owners who invested a fairly early pick in him were scorched.
Part of the reason for McCoy’s descent into fantasy hell was being part of a Bills offense that lacked firepower. That…is still the case. Josh Allen is a physically gifted and intriguing QB, but he’s far from a prolific passer. Allen is like a taller version of Lamar Jackson, and because of this defenses are not going to respect the passing game. In his age 31 season, McCoy no longer possesses the elite speed and elusiveness that would help him against stacked boxes. He’s slowing down, and he is not surrounded by weaponry that can alleviate the pressure on him.
With all that said, McCoy is the lead back for now. Assuming health, and improvement for Josh Allen, his touchdown total should rise as should his efficiency. And as the 39th RB off the board in half-PPR leagues, he almost can’t be a bust anymore because he’s at such a discount. There’s a decent chance he provides value at this ADP, but do not expect a shocking return to form a la Adrian Peterson. McCoy’s a different back, this is a different offense, and that’s not happening.
Defense/Special Teams: Last season the Bills defense was Top 10 in turnovers, points off turnovers, and EXP and only surrendered 28 or more points four times. This is a defense that isn’t dominant, but will be consistent. They also get four matchups against the Dolphins and Jets, and their young, turnover-prone quarterbacks.
Fantasy Relevant
Josh Allen, Bills (ADP: 186): Much of what I wrote about Lamar Jackson here can be applied to Josh Allen. Allen and Jackson were picked in the same draft and are gifted contributors on the ground. Allen ran the ball 7.4 times a game last season, averaging more than 50 yards a game on the ground and scoring eight touchdowns. He doesn’t have close to Jackson’s speed, but his bigger frame makes him a Cam Newton-esque option in the red zone, something to consider when weighing whether or not to draft any Bills RBs. Normally teams don’t want their quarterback to expose themselves to that much contact, but Allen’s shortcomings necessitate that approach.
Allen’s upside is limited though, because of his own passing struggles, and the lack of quality receiving options. He completed barely half (52.8%) of his pass attempts last year, and tossed 10 touchdowns, just two more than he rushed for. He was picked off 12 times, and just squeaked past 170 yards per game. The rushing is nice, but without Jackson’s burner speed, Allen is a rushing QB who will depend more on getting in the end zone. Luckily Allen can be had very late; I’d take a stab at it with him, but his owners should pair him with a safe veteran option like Philip Rivers or Kirk Cousins.
John Brown, WR (ADP: 150): Brown is currently the nominal No. 1 receiver, and there is upside to him if he can get through the season healthy. Last season he averaged 17 yards per catch, and he averages 15 yards per reception for his career. He has also battled injuries throughout his career, and only topped 1,000 yards once, back in 2015. It’s entirely possible that Brown has some big games in 2019, but the case against him is stronger than the case for him. In five seasons Brown has caught 50% or more of his passes just once, a number he’s unlikely to reach this season with Allen throwing the passes. Second, the presence of Allen as the QB, and the plethora of running backs the Bills have spent money on, indicate a run-heavy approach that won’t allow many mouths to be fed in the passing game. Brown is a good talent, but this isn’t the right situation for him to thrive. Even at No. 150 overall, I don’t see Brown being worth much investment in 2019.
Robert Foster, WR (ADP: 184): Foster is the receiver to own in Buffalo, despite the ADP gap between him and Brown. Foster is a big play threat in the mold of Brown, averaging a ridiculous 20 yards per reception as a rookie and scoring three touchdowns. He also caught 61.4% of his passes, with an average of 12 yards per target, signaling a nice rapport with Allen that indicates he might be able to contend with Allen’s inaccuracy. Yes, he only averaged 2.1 catches and 41.6 yards per game, but that was as a rookie with a rookie passer. Foster’s upside is tremendous, and he could be a major breakout candidate. Foster could see his ADP skyrocket with some good preseason performances.
Handcuff(s)
Devin Singletary, RB (ADP: 155): Singletary was a stud in college, racking up 1,000+ rushing yards in each of his three collegiate seasons with Florida Atlantic, and totaling an absurd 33 touchdowns as a sophomore. With Buffalo’s underwhelming receiving corps, and run-first QB, the Bills are going to run the ball a ton. If we don’t think much of McCoy this season, someone must pick up the bulk of the work. That would appear to be Singletary. The Bills invested a third round pick in him, and the other members of this crowded backfield are all retread veterans. Should Buffalo find themselves losing games in the early going, it would only be logical to turn the backfield over to him and see what they have. He will not return much value early, but he will be a must-own handcuff for any McCoy owner, and could be a season-changer after a few weeks.
T.J. Yeldon, RB (ADP: 253): Yeldon should have early-season value as a third-down back in PPR formats. Last season showed some unwillingness from the Bills coaching staff to give McCoy the type of work typically afforded lead backs, and they decreased his usage as a receiver. If that continues, Yeldon is the clear choice until Singletary is able to establish himself. Even if Singletary does begin taking over for McCoy, his college career doesn’t show a track record of excellence as a receiver. While Singletary does project as a three-down back, that’s probably not going to happen overnight. Yeldon will have some value as an emergency PPR option early, but be prepared to part ways by Week 3 or 4.
Frank Gore, RB (ADP: 262): Gore should be viewed purely as depth on this team. Even if the required injuries occurred that would clear a path for anything approaching significant playing time, Gore would at best be a FLEX option. The ADP shows the fantasy community has moved on from Gore, and I stand with the people.
Deep Sleepers
Zay Jones, WR (ADP: 220): Jones doesn’t generate any excitement, but he did lead the Bills in touchdowns last season with seven. He’s a serviceable receiver, and he may wind up as Buffalo’s most targeted pass-catcher, which would bestow upon him mid-to-low end FLEX value in a PPR league.
Cole Beasley, WR (ADP: 285): Beasley is a threat to Jones’ value. Brown and Foster figure to be on the outside trying to make big plays, leaving Jones and Beasley to duke it out for slot duty. Jones has a familiarity edge, but Beasley has consistently delivered as a slot receiver for the Cowboys, and regularly caught a much higher percentage of his targets. Whomever wins this battle will have low-end FLEX value, and I’d bet on Jones. You don’t have to draft Beasley, but keep an eye on him.