Fantasy Football 2019 Team Previews: Carolina Panthers

Carolina Panthers

Must Own

Christian McCaffery, RB (ADP: 3): McCaffery was an absolute monster in 2018, rushing for 1,098 yards, catching 107 passes for 867 yards, and scoring 13 total touchdowns. Opportunity is greater than talent, but McCaffery has both in spades, and has zero competition for workload. He’s easily justified at this ADP, and while he wouldn’t be my choice, he’s a reasonable option at No. 1 overall.

D.J. Moore, WR (ADP: 60): Moore showed promise as a rookie, averaging more than 14 yards per reception and approaching 800 receiving yards despite making only 10 starts. Carolina did not make any major additions to the receiving corps either, so Moore is the presumptive No. 1 receiver for Cam Newton. Those are positives, and they mean Moore will be fantasy relevant. They do not justify him being the 25th receiver off the board, which he currently is. McCaffery is clearly going to see the bulk of the passing targets in this offense, which ranked just 15th in the NFL in attempts. Newton is coming off shoulder surgery as well, so we don’t know yet how his arm strength will be affected. This could become an offense in which shorter throws are plentiful, benefitting other receivers over Moore, the big-play threat. This ADP is based upon the opportunity we’re assuming Moore will have, but he hasn’t established himself as a big-time player, and at this ADP he can only be a value by hitting his upside. Pretty good player, but not one I’d draft at No. 60 overall.

Curtis Samuel, WR (ADP: 117): Samuel is my choice if I’ve decided I want a Panthers receiver. He’s going nearly 60 picks later than Moore, despite catching just 16 fewer passes in three fewer games. Samuel averaged 12.7 yards per catch, and runs shorter routes in areas of the field where Newton is more likely to be looking in 2019. Newton’s taken a pounding in his career, and even before he hurt his shoulder, his arm strength has begun to wane. Samuel isn’t an exciting big-play guy like Moore, but I believe he’ll rack up more receptions and score more touchdowns than Moore will.

Fantasy Relevant

Cam Newton, QB (ADP: 85): Newton is must-own based on his ADP, but I am, perhaps foolishly, down on “Superman” in 2019. Newton’s body has been battered badly over his eight NFL seasons, and last season it resulted in the Panthers needing to remove him from the game in long passing situations. It got a little sad. His rushing numbers sagged a bit too. 101 rushing attempts for 488 yards and four touchdowns are, of course, nothing to sneeze at. Newton is still an elite rusher at the position and he has double-digit rushing TD upside. But with players like Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Kyler Murray in the player pool, he’s not as unique as he once was. There’s no need to pay a premium for Newton anymore, when all of those players are being drafted behind him, and have infinitely cleaner injury histories. I think Newton could definitely finish as a Top 5 QB in 2019, but I’m far from certain that he will. And I’m not interested in paying up for the chance to find out.

Greg Olsen, TE, (ADP: 154): Olsen has been ravaged by injuries for the past two seasons, and has never been one to deliver much on the touchdown front. Prior to his repeated foot maladies, Olsen had become a near-lock for 1,000 receiving yards. That’s not the case anymore, and as the 16th TE off the board, fantasy owners seem to know it. He’s not a terrible gamble at the ends of drafts, but I’d take a shot on some of the younger TEs going behind him for their upside.

Handcuff(s)

Cameron Artis-Payne, RB (ADP: 340): Artis-Payne is the Panthers’ backup until proven otherwise, but even if McCaffery sustains an injury that would give Artis-Payne the job long-term, I’m not sure he’s anything but a FLEX. Without C-Mac, this offense will fall apart completely, so even McCaffery owners can safely take a pass on handcuffing him.

Jordan Scarlett, RB (ADP: 347): C-Mac’s dominance renders handcuffs unnecessary in Carolina, but if you do want some insurance, place your bet on the rookie Scarlett. The Florida Gators product averaged more than five yards per carry for his whole collegiate career and is outlandishly strong. It’s unlikely Scarlett would have fallen all the way to the fifth round without the character/legal troubles he faced in college, but on a pure talent basis he’s far more interesting than Artis-Payne.

Deep Sleepers

Chris Hogan, WR (ADP: 362): The fantasy community is expressing the end of their patience for Hogan to finally break out via this ADP. Hogan has never surpassed 41 receptions in a season or five touchdowns, so it’s understandable. He is, however, a potent deep threat at his best and this WR corps is far from stacked. There is a small chance Hogan might have value in very deep leagues, but don’t expect much, especially in PPR formats.