Fantasy Football 2019 Team Previews: Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore Ravens

Must Own

Mark Ingram, RB (ADP: 47): Ingram has left the friendly environment of the New Orleans Saints, but he’s landed in about as good a place as possible for his skill set. Ingram had become the lesser-used thunder in his thunder-and-lightning combination with Alvin Kamara; now he’ll have the lead role with the Ravens, in an offense that will score fewer points, but likely boost his production.

Baltimore is going to run the ball as much as just about any offense in the NFL. Not only do they have a strong offensive line, their quarterback, Lamar Jackson, is simply not capable of being the focal point of the offense as a passer. Luckily, he is a supremely gifted rusher, which will not only keep the chains moving for the Ravens, but open up running lanes for Ingram. Ingram has long been an efficient rusher, averaging 4.5 yards per carry for his career, and if he can maintain that he’ll absolutely outperform this ADP with an increased workload. He’s also a talented receiver out of the backfield, even if his usage in that role shrank last year. That was due to Kamara’s brilliance, not Ingram’s inability. Right  now, Ingram is the 23rd RB off the board. That means he is a fantastic value right now, and someone to absolutely target. Ingram absolutely has RB1 upside.

Lamar Jackson, QB (ADP: 136): I have already written once or twice about Jackson this offseason, but I’ll hammer the point again. He is not getting anywhere near his due as the 18th quarterback off the board, and he represents possibly the best value in all of fantasy football right now. Forget Jackson’s flaws as a passer, and gawk at what he did on the ground.

In 2019 Jackson rushed 9.2 times per game, averaging 4.7 yards per carry. He scored five times on the ground, which is unbelievably helpful in four-point passing touchdown formats. If you think those numbers are impressive, think again. They’re actually deceiving. Jackson didn’t take the reins full time until Week 10. From that point on, Jackson averaged 17 rushing attempts per game and nearly 80 yards while scoring four times. Maybe a rushing volume that high isn’t fully sustainable – hence, signing Mark Ingram – but his passing is so subpar that he’s still going to run a ton.

As for his passing…well, it’s rough. He completed less than 60% of his passes, and averaged only 75.1 yards per game. Obviously, that’s really bad, and you’re relying on him to basically function as a solid RB if he remains at this level. Still, it’s better than Tim Tebow was at his peak, and at his peak Tebow was a very desirable fantasy QB. Also, Jackson is likely to make some headway as a passer; even if that progress is marginal, it’ll be icing on top of a RB-at-QB cake. I will be targeting Jackson in drafts, and you should too.

Defense/Special Teams: Baltimore’s defense was one of the most consistent in football last season, notching a shutout, and holding opponents to 20 or fewer points nine times. As offense has exploded in the NFL, it’s become extremely difficult to put together a defense like the Ravens of old, or even the more recent Broncos/Seahawks units. But you can be sure that the 2019 Ravens will reliably keep the score down and sack the quarterback (43 last season). They also were second in the NFL in Pro-footballreference.com’s EXP metric, which measures the “expected points contributed by all defense.” Baltimore posted a 39.88 EXP, second only to the Bears’ 95.5 mark. The next best was Minnesota at 23.15. Lastly, they did all this without S Earl Thomas, who was added this season and could elevate the Ravens into Chicago’s territory.

Fantasy Relevant

Marquise Brown, WR (ADP: 191): Marquise “Hollywood” Brown is an impressive prospect, and for many teams would represent an intriguing fantasy option. As a Raven, he interests me only from the standpoint of opportunity. Brown, a rookie, will compete with Chris Moore, Willie Snead, Seth Roberts, and Michael Floyd for target share. Another way of saying that is Hollywood Brown will be the clear-cut No. 1 option for Jackson at wide receiver, which is a double-edged sword. Obviously, it’s great to see tons of targets. On the other hand, these will be among the lowest-quality targets of any No. 1 option,  and Brown himself is both undersized and inexperienced to have a large role. It’s more likely than not that the Ravens’ receiving corps is a fantasy graveyard, but someone’s going to accumulate some numbers and the safest bet is Brown. View him as a possible WR3.

Handcuff(s)

Gus Edwards, RB (ADP: 231): Edwards was pretty impressive last season, seizing control of a leaderless backfield and finishing the season averaging 5.2 yards per carry and 65.3 yards per game. Unfortunately for Edwards, the Ravens don’t have much draft capital or money invested in him, so they’re not feeling obligated to continue feeding him the ball. The offseason addition of Ingram is also discouraging for Edwards’ prospects, as Ingram was brought in to do all the things Edwards does. Edwards showed zero in the passing game – to be clear, he wasn’t given the opportunity either – so as talented as he is, it’ll take an injury to Ingram for Edwards to see significant playing time. With that said, Ingram owners should probably draft Edwards in the late rounds because there’s big upside if he gets the chance to shine again.

Kenneth Dixon, RB (ADP: 319): Dixon has been lurking for years in this backfield, like the RB version of Kevin White. Always expectation, yet he never delivers the goods. There’s talent here for sure; Dixon averages nearly five yards per carry in his limited work, and he caught 30 passes as a rookie for 162 yards and a score. But injuries and suspensions have derailed him to the point where he’s buried behind a former Pro Bowler, and Edwards, whom no one had heard of before last year. Dixon could provide value if given consistent work, but there’s only one long, winding road for playing time that includes injuries to both Ingram and Edwards. The only ray of hope for Dixon is his ability to catch passes, as they didn’t seem to trust Edwards with that whatsoever.

Deep Sleepers

Mark Andrews, TE (ADP: 183): Even at No. 183 overall, I’m surprised Andrews has even this much hype. Andrews certainly did the most with his limited opportunity, catching nearly 70% of his targets and averaging 16.2 yards per reception. Andrews is huge, so he will be a tasty option for Lamar Jackson near the goal line, and all over the field too as a safety valve. Jackson is not going to be running a complex passing offense, so when his mediocre receivers are covered he’ll be looking to safety, which is probably Andrews. Currently the 18th TE off the board in half-PPR leagues, he’s currently No. 12 on my list and potentially rising.

Hayden Hurst, TE (ADP: 280): Hurst could stand in Andrews’ way. Even though Andrews has badly outperformed Hurst as a pass-catcher, Hurst was the one taken in Round 1 in 2018. He’s unlikely to put up better numbers than Andrews, but he could potentially do enough to sink both players’ fantasy value. Without any studs at wide receiver, Jackson might find himself utilizing both tight ends on the reg. I don’t envision Hurst being relevant without an injury that wipes Andrews off the field entirely.  

Willie Snead, WR (ADP: 248): Snead could wind up leading the Ravens in targets, as last season’s top two, Michael Crabtree and John Brown, are no longer on the team. Even with the biggest target share, however, Snead isn’t appealing. He turned 95 targets into 62 catches, 651 yards and one lone touchdown. That is reflective of Jackson’s limitations at QB, but he’s still the QB. If you must have a Ravens pass-catcher, Andrews is the guy to take the chance on, with Hollywood Brown in second place. Snead is only an option in the deepest of leagues.