Fantasy Football 2019 Team Previews: Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta Falcons

Must Own

Julio Jones, WR (ADP: 10): Jones is awesome, but also weirdly unsatisfying at times. He’s a lock for 1,400+ receiving yards, and he is a target hound, drawing 162 targets a season since 2014, and topping out at 203 in 2015. Jones’ frustrating inability to explode in the touchdown category is what has held him back from evolving into the supernova he has the potential to be, and it’s what has often made him a little boring for fantasy owners. He’s only hit double-digit touchdowns once, way back in 2012, and in 2017 he scored only three. Typically, he is around 6-8 touchdowns though, and paired with his reception totals and insane yardage, makes him a lock WR1. As far as safety goes, you can’t get much safer than Julio Jones. So yeah, it’ll be annoying 2-3 times a year when he unexpectedly delivers a dud. But he’s averaged 100 yards per game in three of the last four seasons, and he makes for a lovely late first round pick you can rely on.

Devonta Freeman, RB (ADP: 33): Freeman, the clear lead back for one of the NFL’s best offenses, is currently the 17th RB off the board in half-PPR formats. That’s strange. After earning Round 1 cred following back-to-back 11-touchdown seasons in 2015 and 2016, Freeman’s career has hit the wall hard. He labored through nagging injuries in 2017, failing to hit 1,000 yards, and seeing his receiving numbers dip. Last season was a complete loss thanks to injury. Now, in 2019, he’s gone from an exciting option with a huge workload to a major health risk. Fair enough, but he's only 27 years old, the lost year shaved a year’s worth of carries off his body, and he’s poised to assume even more work than in the past with Tevin Coleman gone.

Even in his down year in 2017, Freeman averaged 4.4 yards per carry and 2.6 receptions per game. Dual threat RBs are more valuable than ever, since there are fewer, and he’s undoubtedly a contributor in the passing game. Even more important, Freeman doesn’t cede goal line work to any vultures. The only nitpick might be that Atlanta is more suited to throwing the ball a ton than running a lot, but that’s not really an issue either. Freeman is efficient and can succeed with less work than a normal bell cow, and he’s involved in the passing game. He might not seem like it, but Freeman looks to me like one of the safest options at the position, and currently appears to be a major value.

Calvin Ridley, WR (ADP: 57): Ridley was very impressive as a rookie, scoring 10 touchdowns and thriving despite the presence of Jones and Mohamed Sanu in the same receiving corps. He arrived in the NFL as advertised, a crisp route runner who does not struggle to get open. However, there is some risk of him being overdrafted in 2019.

First, touchdowns are fluky. Rookie wide receivers don’t generally make seismic fantasy impacts, and seeing Ridley’s touchdown total be chopped in half this year wouldn’t be a shock. Sanu could easily steal some red zone looks, and Freeman’s return adds a potent weapon that Ridley didn’t have to contend with. Ridley finished 2018 with 64 receptions and 821 yards, which are fine numbers, and superb for a rookie, but don’t stand out without a ton of touchdowns. His current ADP is fine, and I personally rank him inside the Top 20 at his position, but I expect his ADP to rise, potentially to a point at which he’ll fail to deliver the proper production.

Matt Ryan, QB (ADP: 71): Ryan was elite in 2018, throwing for 4,924 yards and tossing 35 touchdowns vs. seven interceptions. He is surrounded by effective weapons. He is familiar with his offense. And yet, there’s the ever-present threat of Ryan regressing back to mediocrity, like in 2017 when he barely cracked 4,000 passing yards and managed just 20 touchdowns. In 2015 he was similarly toothless, throwing 21 touchdown passes. Ryan has never, and will never, add value as a rusher, so volume and efficiency are crucial to his success. The Falcons’ situation is stable, and with Ridley in the mix it’s hard to see him slipping back to sub-30 touchdown totals. In fact, with Freeman back to reinvigorate the running game, it wouldn’t be a surprise for Ryan to notch his first 40-touchdown campaign. The yards and passing opportunities will be constant, so as long as he’s not melting down in the red zone he should approach the Top 5 at QB. I’m an advocate for not spending big on the position, so rather than pay up in the Top 25 for Patrick Mahomes, or Top 50 for Andrew Luck, consider Ryan at No. 71 overall where there’s more bang for the buck.

Fantasy Relevant

Mohamed Sanu, WR (ADP: 197): Sanu isn’t what many people consider “relevant,” but the fact is he drew two more targets than Calvin Ridley did last season. Ridley scored 10 touchdowns and Sanu only scored four, but when the opportunity is basically the same, it’s not inconceivable for those touchdown numbers to suddenly flip. For a big receiver, Sanu has never proven much of a red zone threat, but at this ADP securing someone who will almost surely see about 100 targets is not bad at all. Sanu is relevant in three-WR or deep formats. Don’t expect much, but he could pop.

Austin Hooper, TE (ADP: 145): Hooper is a talented guy, and he only received four fewer targets than Ridley, and six fewer than Sanu. Still, the fact that Ridley and Sanu turned those targets into 14 touchdowns really lowers the ceiling on Hooper. Despite being in a high-octane offense, there are simply too many mouths to feed, most of whom are better receiving options. Hooper is a high-end streaming TE, and someone I’d be very comfortable starting in the right matchups. Do not, however, draft Hooper expecting a season-long guy.

Handcuff(s)

Ito Smith, RB (ADP: 148): Smith will have value if Freeman goes down, but based on last year’s performance he’s not a must-own handcuff. Smith averaged 3.5 yards per carry, and added very little in the passing game. Should Freeman miss time, Smith will accumulate stats on volume alone now that Tevin Coleman’s bounced, but no one should view him as a breakout if he gets the lead role. At best he’ll be a middle-to-low-end RB2, and more likely a decent FLEX as a best-case scenario.

Deep Sleepers

Qadree Ollison, RB, (ADP: 242): Ollison, a fifth-rounder out of Pitt, is actually the back I’d prefer to own as a handcuff for Freeman, but it’ll take time for him to earn trust. Atlanta’s draft capital investment isn’t huge, so there isn’t a ton of incentive to speed up his development. In the event of a Freeman injury, however, he could get an extended look based on the low upside of Ito Smith. Ollison has handled heavy workloads before, toting the rock 194 times as a senior at a 6.3-yard clip. He’s topped 1,000 yards twice in college, and caught 23 passes in 2017. He also managed 11 touchdowns as a freshman and a senior. Ollison is an intriguing dynasty pick, and someone to consider with a literal last round pick.