Fantasy Football Rankings 2019: Top 10 Rookies Part 2
Continuing from my previous post, the following are the players whom I feel will be the five most fantasy-relevant rookies of 2019.
5. Parris Campbell, WR, Colts (Round 2, Pick 59)
Campbell isn’t the most highly touted receiver in this class, nor is he necessarily my favorite in terms of ability in a vacuum. He does, however, have insane physical tools and he ran one of the fastest 40-yard dashes (4.31), which slightly beat out Mecole Hardman’s 4.33 time. More importantly, he’s landed in Indianapolis, where he has the chance to become the No. 2 receiver for Andrew Luck right away, with T.Y. Hilton drawing the attention of every opponent they’ll face.
The word “raw” comes up in evaluations of Campbell, and there are knocks about his route running and “polish,” but it very well may not matter with the prolific Luck throwing the passes. Campbell, even if he does secure the No. 2 receiver role, will have to compete with Hilton, RB Marlon Mack, and two competent tight ends (Eric Ebron, Jack Doyle) in this offense. That limits him in my opinion to evolving into a WR2 at best as a rookie this year. But his college production – 90 receptions, 1,063 yards, 12 receiving touchdowns – shows a player who is more NFL ready than scouts might think in one of the best possible situations for a young pass-catcher to flourish.
4. Kyler Murray, QB, Cardinals (Round 1, Pick 1)
Murray, the No. 1 overall pick, will have his work cut out for him with Arizona’s porous offensive line figuring to put him in positions to be flattened. As a smallish, inexperienced QB, Murray is going to have some rough outings and likely have a high interception total. That is, if he remains healthy long enough to throw a bunch of picks. But with all that out of the way, it’s possible he explodes to fantasy stardom right out of the gate too.
Murray is entering a situation in which he has a star RB (David Johnson), a Hall of Fame receiver (Larry Fitzgerald), and a WR1 in training in Christian Kirk. He has a coach in Kliff Kingsbury whom many consider to be an offensive wizard, and who handpicked Murray as an ideal operator for his offensive game plan. Murray put up all the number sin the world at Oklahoma, tossing 42 touchdowns against just seven picks, amassing 4,361 yards through the air and completing almost 70% of his passes.
But while his passing is cause for optimism, his ticket to early fantasy relevance is what he can do on the ground.
Last season Murray was a 1,000-yard rusher, adding 12 scores as a runner. Last season was a bit of an eye-opener in terms of the types of QBs entering the league, as Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen bulled their way to relevance by contributing weekly as rushing threats. Murray is slight, but he can be just as lethal running the football; the difference is that he is also a deadly passer, and figures to thrive in an RPO offense that causes defenders to hesitate just enough for him to pierce them. I’m absolutely concerned about the Cardinals’ ability to protect him, but there is certainly a Patrick Mahomes-ish ceiling to Murray, as well as a very low floor.
3. Miles Sanders, RB, Eagles (Round 2, Pick 53)
Sanders, the newest Nittany Lion to enter the NFL, will come without the hype of his predecessor Saquon Barkley. He’s nothing like the talent Barkley is, but Sanders is coming in to occupy a similar role to the one Barkley does with the Giants. Philadelphia’s backfield was a wasteland last season. Expected workhorse Jay Ajayi got hurt early, and neither of Corey Clement, Wendell Smallwood could grab the brass ring. Eventually, Josh Adams took hold of the de facto lead role, but he was nicked up at times, and all of them ceded some work to Darren Sproles. Most of these players are still on the Eagles, unfortunately, but Sanders’ usage at Penn State creates the profile of someone who is here to handle most of the work.
Sanders carried the rock 220 times in 2018, at 5.8 yards a clip, rushing for 1,274 yards and totaling nine touchdowns. His receiving numbers don’t leap off the page, but he’s viewed as a capable pass-catcher out of the backfield, which should help him carve out an initial role. It’s unfortunate for his prospects in Year 1 that the Eagles signed Jordan Howard, who is likely to eat up early down work in the beginning of the season, but it’s possible for Sanders to usurp Howard entirely if he proves to be an explosive big-play threat. Over time, Sanders will earn more and more work but his Week 1 situation limits the justification for spending an early pick. You’ll need to be patient.
2. David Montgomery, RB, Bears (Round 3, Pick 73)
Montgomery isn’t the prospect that Sanders is, but fantasy football isn’t about talent. It’s about the intersection of talent and opportunity, and opportunity always takes precedence. Tarik Cohen is the best back to own from Chicago in 2019, but because of his size, he’s always going to be the type of player doing the most on limited touches. Montgomery is likely to occupy a role similar to the one vacated by Jordan Howard, and Montgomery actually does have some receiving chops too (22 receptions, 157 yards last season). Last season Howard had 250 carries; Montgomery had 257 carries last season for Iowa State, so he can handle a big workload. Chicago will want to utilize Cohen as much as possible while being responsible, so Montgomery should be looking at around 200 totes. That’s damn good, and makes him highly relevant, even if he ran a subpar 4.63 40-yard dash.
1. Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders (Round 1, Pick 24)
Jacobs, the first RB off the board in 2019, is walking directly into a starting, workhorse role. That alone puts him atop any list of fantasy rookies. It does help that he is the total package. The 640 rushing yards and 247 receiving yards aren’t mind-blowing, but he did share time with a fellow Patriots’ third-round pick Damien Harris. Jacobs totaled 14 touchdowns, averaged 5.3 yards per carry and represents the most complete skill set in this draft class at the position. More importantly, Marshawn Lynch is out of the picture, and his chief competition is the corpse of Doug Martin. Oakland’s offense is likely to revolve around Jacobs and Antonio Brown, and Derek Carr’s propensity for short, high-percentage throws should be a boon to his value across formats, but especially in full and half-PPR leagues. In a draft class rife with potential, but short on certainty, we can bank on Jacobs mattering big-time barring injury. That makes him the cream of 2019’s fantasy rookie crop.