Fantasy Football 2019 Rankings: Top 10 Rookies Part 1
I am not the type of fantasy owner who enjoys relying on rookies. Outside of surefire, Round 1 running backs like Ezekiel Elliott or Saquon Barkley, I often shy away from rookies, as the learning curve in the NFL tends to be steeper than in most other sports. Still, the promise of the unknown can be tantalizing nonetheless, so without further ado, I’ll break down the most fantasy-relevant rookies of 2019. This will be broken into two parts; for now, here are Nos. 10-6.
10. T.J. Hockenson, TE, Lions (Round 1, Pick 8)
Hockenson, at 6’5, 250-lbs, could be assumed to be a lumbering, late-stage Jason Witten type. That’s not what he is. Hockenson’s game doesn’t resemble Eric Ebron’s, whom the Lions drafted with the 10th overall pick five years ago. Hockenson is more like if Patriots’ RB Rex Burkhead was huge. He doesn’t have wide receiver speed a la Evan Engram, but he’s plenty fast and has shown sick hops jumping over would-be tacklers. And unlike Engram, Hockenson isn’t a wide receiver in tight end’s clothing; this dude can catch the ball over the middle and punish safeties and corners who attempt to tackle him.
He caught 49 passes for 70 yards and six touchdowns last year for the Iowa Hawkeyes. Don’t ding him too badly for what looks like subpar production for a Top 10 pick at a non-premium skill position. He had to share a big workload with fellow first-round TE Noah Fant, who went 21st overall to the Broncos and didn’t quite make the cut. Rookie tight ends are rarely must-starts in fantasy, and I don’t expect Hockenson to become one despite his lofty draft position. He will have big games though, so he should be considered a high-end streaming option in plus matchups with the upside to be a back-end of the Top 10 guy at his position.
9. Darrell Henderson, RB, Rams (Round 3, Pick 70)
The third round is a bit high for a running back to be taken when the team drafting him has Todd Gurley. Perhaps that says a great deal about how the Rams are feeling about Gurley’s balky knee, which is rumored to be arthritic. Sean McVay’s offense is a boon to any skill player with a sizeable role, and if Gurley can no longer handle workhorse usage, Henderson has the potential to be a supercharged version of 2018’s surprising success story C.J. Anderson. Henderson, out of Memphis, cracked 1,900 yards rushing and also added 295 yards and three touchdowns in the passing game. He averaged 8.9 yards per carry, and profiles as an explosive game-breaker. He would rank higher on this list if he weren’t currently behind arguably the best RB in football, but Gurley’s cloudy health picture means Henderson could wind up being the biggest steal in your draft.
8. Dwayne Haskins, QB, Redskins (Round 1, Pick 15)
The Giants were maligned for picking Duke QB Daniel Jones sixth overall, not least because Haskins was still on the board. Many believe Haskins is the best QB in this draft, and statistically it’s difficult to argue otherwise. Prolific is the only way to describe Haskins’ season in 2018; he racked up 4,831 passing yards, threw for 50 touchdowns against just eight interceptions, and completed 70% of his passes. He’s not a tremendous runner, but he did chew up 108 yards on the ground and add four touchdowns to his total.
The warts on Haskins relate to his experience and where he’s landed. Haskins only has 18 career starts in college, and while he’s been stellar, NFL defenses are another galaxy compared to the Big 12. He will struggle at points, which is to be expected from any QB. Haskins is in a situation where the offense will be based on the run. Washington currently employs a workhorse in Adrian Peterson, a high draft pick from just one year ago in Derrius Guice, and they selected rookie Bryce Love. They also have a game-breaker in Chris Thompson, who is mostly a receiving back but still warrants a certain number of carries in his own right. His receivers are lacking. The nominal No. 1 receiver is Josh Doctson, a perennially disappointing and banged up deep ball threat. Tight end Jordan Reed is a living WebMD page, and the rest of the receiving corps are nondescript clones of one another all fighting to post middling stats. Lastly, he’ll have to compete with veteran Case Keenum. In terms of talent, it’s not a fair fight between the two, but because he’s a bit green the ‘Skins may decide to have Haskins learn from the sideline for a while, murdering any fantasy value.
7. Mecole Hardman, WR, Chiefs (Round 2, Pick 56)
Hardman is an extremely popular sleeper, even though there isn’t a great case for him statistically. The Georgia speedster has caught just 60 passes in two seasons with the Bulldogs, although he made them count with 11 touchdowns. Hardman was sought after, particularly by KC, due to his 4.33-second 40-yard dash time, the best at the Combine. The Chiefs are staring down the barrel of a season without Tyreek Hill, a creature born from an offensive coordinator’s nightmare, and Hardman has become central casting to fill Hill’s role of catching Patrick Mahomes’ devastating deep balls.
As good as Mahomes is, it’s difficult to imagine him walking into the NFL and immediately becoming something approaching a Top 10 fantasy receiver, which is what Hill had become. Kansas City lacks star power beyond TE Travis Kelce, but the knocks on Hardman – lacking in technique, struggled vs. SEC competition, struggled with contested balls – don’t sound like an NFL-ready fantasy impact. It’s possible Hardman is simply so fast that Mahomes’ gifts carry him to relevance in Year 1, but it’s more likely he flashes from time to time and ultimately disappoints owners who overdraft him.
6. A.J. Brown, WR, Titans (Round 2, Pick 51)
Brown, unlike Hardman, is a polished product out of Ole Miss who would be much higher on this list if he had landed on a team with a more prolific offense. The Marcus Mariota-led Titans figure to be a run-first outfit, capping Brown’s ceiling. That said, Brown has a chance to be Mariota’s No. 1 option in Week 1, as Corey Davis, the fifth overall pick just two years ago, hasn’t quite grabbed the bull by the horns. At minimum, the explosiveness of Davis should keep teams from keying on Brown much, freeing him to excel in one-on-one situations where he can showcase his slick routes and advanced ability on contested passes. The volume isn’t going to be there for Brown to be a WR1, but there’s a universe where he catches enough touchdowns to warrant regular FLEX consideration and just enough targets to be in the discussion as a WR2 in full-PPR formats.