Fantasy Football 2019 Rankings & ADP: Early Breakout Player From Each Position
It’s well-known, but worth repeating, that the goal of fantasy sports is to draft players who will outperform their average draft position. So as you begin prepping for drafts, it’s important to recognize early where the bargains are. These following players are all being drafted below the level they’re capable of performing at, and should be targets for your moving forward if the ADP doesn’t rise.
**All ADP data is courtesy of FantasyPros.com.
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson, Ravens (ADP: 142)
Jackson is currently the 17th QB off the board, essentially an afterthought in anything but a two-QB league. Jackson’s value does take a hit in six-point per passing TD leagues, but everywhere else this is potentially the steal of the draft. Let’s address the elephant in the room regarding Jackson – his passing. By NFL quarterback standards, Jackson was abysmal in that respect. He completed just 58.1% of his passes and averaged a meek seven yards per attempt. He’s not a good passer, and even with expected improvements in 2019, he’s not going to become one in Year 2. And that’s great for fantasy owners, because it’ll keep his value depressed to the point where he could be a league-winning draft pick.
Jackson was a revelation on the ground, totaling 695 yards and five touchdowns as a rusher on 147 attempts. Even those numbers are a bit deceiving, and hide his value. He will go down as having averaged 9.2 rushing attempts per game, but that’s because he appeared in all 16 games for the Ravens. Jackson started seven games, and in those starts averaged 17 rushes. Yes, that puts him at major injury risk, but his throwing is so underdeveloped that his ability to run the football has become the focal point of the offense, rather than a useful piece of a more conventional attack. Essentially, we have Tim Tebow with breakaway speed. When you roll with Jackson at QB, you’re basically trotting out an additional RB with a workload that’s more secure than many actual running backs. His production as a runner is going to more than make up for his passing deficiencies, and the threat he poses as a runner will open up big plays through the air. Right now, Jackson strikes me as the best value in fantasy football as people begin prepping for draft season.
Running Back
Ronald Jones, Buccaneers (ADP: 122)
Running back is resurgent, and it’s very, very hard to find value on any lead back. In fact, these days fantasy owners are having to overpay a bit for talented RBs who have mere shares of a workload that are guaranteed. Then there’s Jones, a second round pick just last season who spectacularly sucked in 2018 and was a non-factor all season. He was a preseason favorite of mine because his path to lead dog status ran through Peyton Barber, a mostly plodding and uninspiring veteran. This year, Jones’ path runs through… Peyton Barber.
Tampa Bay cleaned house this offseason, installing Bruce Arians, an offensive wizard, as head coach. 2018 was the second straight season Barber averaged fewer than four yards per carry, and he showed no explosiveness as a rusher or pass catcher. Granted, neither did Jones, but Jones was only given 23 carries and nine targets to show anything. Jones was a burner at USC, topping 1,000 yards from scrimmage as a sophomore and a junior, averaging 6.1 yards per carry for his college career, and putting up 33 total touchdowns in his final two seasons as a Trojan. Jones has the profile of a versatile back, and we’ve seen in David Johnson of the Cardinals what that kind of upside a dual threat back has when paired up with Arians. Jones clearly comes with major question marks, but all those concerns are built into his sad ADP.
Wide Receiver
Courtland Sutton, Broncos (ADP: 85)
Sutton, a highly talented second round pick, was mostly a success in 2018. He flashed more potential than he actually realized, but he was also saddled with putrid quarterback play all season. Even with atrocious passers, he racked up 42 receptions for 704 yards and four touchdowns. More impressively, he averaged 16.8 yards per catch, and 8.4 yards per target. At 6’3, 218 lbs., Sutton is a brutal cover down the field. Now, he has one of the NFL’s best deep passers under center. Most scoffed at Denver signing Joe Flacco, and it’s understandable; he hasn’t been very good for years. He also hasn’t had a receiver as physically gifted as Sutton in years. Sutton caught six passes of 30 yards or more in 2018, all of which were thrown by Case Keenum. Flacco completed seven such passes of 30 yards or greater, four of which were 44 yards or more. His longest completion of the season was a 71-yarder to John Brown, and keep in mind that Flacco made just nine starts. Flacco’s arrival may not be wonderful news for DaeSean Hamilton, but his style syncs up perfectly with Sutton.
Also of note, Denver’s de facto No. 1 receiver, Emmanuel Sanders, is recovering from a torn Achilles. There is talk that he may be ready for Week 1, but even if that aggressively optimistic timetable is met, there’s no telling if Sanders, at 32 years old, will be anything like his elusive, speedy self. Sutton is about to become the Broncos No. 1 target with a quarterback tailor-made to maximize his skill set. Him being No. 32 among wide receivers is silly.
Tight End
O.J. Howard, Buccaneers (ADP: 56)
Howard’s ADP is a little high for a list like this, but he still makes it because I believe there’s a world in which Howard is the TE1 in 2019. He averaged 16.6 yards per catch as a tight end, a number topped only by Mo-Allie Cox of the Colts, who totaled seven catches on the season. Howard, whose 6’6, 251-lb. frame is massive and ludicrous for someone with his speed, is uncoverable by DBs or linebackers. And now he’s paired up with Arians, in an offense that has just seen 150 targets (DeSean Jackson, Adam Humphries) disappear. Do you think the new offensive mastermind plans to allocate some of those to one of the biggest mismatches in football? I do.
Howard’s game-changing speed from the tight end position is only made more fearsome by the presence of Mike Evans, the focal point of every Bucs’ opponent’s defensive coordinator, and Chris Godwin, a red zone threat who must be accounted for. Last season Howard averaged 4.8 targets per game, and only played in 10 games thanks to injury. If those targets get up to six or seven per game, we could be looking at a superstar.