Leap to Elite: German Marquez Has The Talent, All He Needs Is To Be Traded

It’s spring, so that means it’s time for me to get too excited about German Marquez finally breaking out and reaching his full potential. Yes, I’m aware that Marquez still pitches his home games at Coors Field, but I can’t quit his elite K/BB ratio.

2020 was kinder to Marquez in terms of luck. While his BABIP remained steady, his HR/FB ratio dropped from 20.1% in 2019 – thanks Colorado air – to 9.4%. He pitched 81.2 innings, striking out 8.04 per nine while walking fewer than three per nine for the fifth straight season. He finished the shortened season with a respectable 3.75 ERA for the second time in three seasons and had room to be better; his FIP checked in at 3.28, although his xFIP was right on par with the ERA. Make of that what you will.

Marquez upped his ground ball rate to 50.6% last season, a critical skill for those who have to survive in Coors Field, and he limited hitters to 37.4% hard contact. He also mixed up his arsenal a bit, throwing fewer fastballs, which was his worst pitch despite strong 95.7 mph velocity, and increasing his curveball usage to almost 25%. Per Fangraphs, that curveball was 8.7 runs above average, so let’s hope that trend continues and he uses his fastball even less.

As usual, Marquez was a completely different pitcher on the road vs. at home. Away from Coors, he pitched to a 2.06 ERA in 43.2 innings, allowing a slash line of .201/.257/.335. At home, those numbers jumped to 5.68 with a .296/.345/.414. Those are steady split breakdowns throughout his career, so why would I again believe in him? Well, Colorado traded star 3B Nolan Arenado this offseason, and appear to be committing to a rebuild. No one on the team save for SS Trevor Story has as much trade value as Marquez, so it is conceivable that Marquez could find himself on a contender this year. If Marquez is rescued by another team, he’ll play almost ALL of his games away from Coors, and he’s a quality pitcher in those situations, and was an ace last season. Marquez has a career 3.51 ERA on the road and 1.12 WHIP.

Even if Marquez doesn’t wind up traded, you can derive value out of him by playing smart. If you’re disciplined enough to only play Marquez for his road starts, you should be able to wring 100-110 innings out of him that way. If you can stream pitchers in the weeks where you sit him, you can finesse your way to a very good pitcher in that fashion, all while hoping he lands on a team with a better pitching environment that offers the opportunity for wins. Remember, Marquez is still only 26 years old and has awesome command of his stuff. He’s currently going No. 175 overall, and even with the awful home park he’s simply too talented to last that long.