Deep Sleepers: Nico Hoerner Offers Cheap Help In Fantasy's Rarest Category
The Cubs have a pretty exciting young talent on their hands in Nico Hoerner, one who is obscured in terms of attention because the glossier names on the roster – think Javier Baez, Kris Bryant – have question marks attached to them. While fans wonder whether Bryant will be traded, or if Baez can bounce back, they’re not looking at the potential diamond in the rough that’s currently going No. 412 overall. He’s pretty much free, and he’s a player I’d be ecstatic to scoop up with my last pick.
Hoerner, a first round pick in 2018, is a three-position player (2B/SS/3B) slated for significant playing time in 2021. He struggled to a .222 batting average in 48 games last season, but improved his walk rate dramatically to 9.5%, an impressive number for a young middle infielder hitting near the bottom of the lineup. He also struck out fewer than 20% of the time, with an 82.9% contact rate. Hoerner didn’t have much experience before 2019 at Double-A, where he hit .284 across 70 games before getting called up to The Show. In his limited minor league action, however, Hoerner displayed the ability to hit for high average, consistently make contact and get on base. That’ll be critical, because he posted a 28.8 Speed Score, placing him well within the top 10% of baseball.
The appeal of Hoerner will be his speed, and we’ll be drafting him in the hopes that he’ll provide cheap stolen base assistance. Base stealing is the rarest skill in fantasy baseball these days, and as I wrote here, we’re drafting stolen base guys as early as the Top 35 without any assurance they’re even good hitters. Hoerner batted .282 in 2019 as a rookie, and has hit for average more often than he hasn’t in his short career. He’s also posted back-to-back sub-.300 BABIPs, which is rare for a player with his speed. Given a full season, and his contact rate, it’s fair to bank on that number to spike. That’ll offer him more opportunities to use his wheels and increase his value, as will maintaining the career-best walk rate he put forward last year.
Another reason to buy into Hoerner is his real-life versatility and competence defensively. Hoerner was worth 3.1 runs last season with his glove, posting positive UZRs at all three positions, his best rating at shortstop. He also had a sip of coffee in the outfield, so he will see tons of plate appearances this season not only as a primary second baseman, but also filling in elsewhere.
Will Hoerner be a superstar? Probably not. And it is worth noting that he was caught stealing twice in five attempts. But even the faint possibility of him being a genuine contributor in that category should make him worth considering in the late rounds, and this ADP suggests he’s not even registering on most people’s radar. That’s a mistake, and you would be wise to capitalize on draft day.