Deep Sleepers: Brandon Nimmo Provides Boring Excellence In At Least Two Categories

Brandon Nimmo doesn’t seem all that exciting to own, and his No. 254 overall ADP reflects fantasy owners’ excitement level, but all winning fantasy teams have dirty work performers. While Nimmo’s power numbers will leave a lot to be desired, 2020 offered a glimpse of his true upside which is magnified in the Mets’ suddenly potent lineup.

While Nimmo’s never played more than 140 games, he’s maxed out at 17 home runs in a season. You’re not drafting Nimmo to post power numbers. He’s always been an on-base machine, however; from 2017 to 2019 he posted three straight OBPs of .375 or better without ever hitting .265. In 2018 he posted a .404 batting average, which came along with his 17 homer campaign. These on-base marks are driven by his elite walk rate, which is consistently around 15%, and peaked in 2019 at 18.1%. Last season, Nimmo stepped his game up, taking advantage of a .326 BABIP to hit .280 and once again surpass a .400 OBP across 55 games. Those on-base skills are going to be critical for his fantasy value, as he’s projected to lead off for a team that now boasts one of the deepest lineups in baseball.

Unfortunately for Nimmo, he does appear to have a low-ish ceiling. He has a career exit velocity of about 89.1 mph, right around league average, and his Barrel % is also just slightly better than league average. He 2020 he was well below average in Hard Hit % (21st percentile) and exit velocity (23rd percentile). That doesn’t bode well for any meaningful contributions in home runs, and could cap his OPS upside. He’s also not a great bet for RBI, because he’ll be batting atop the lineup, even though this order should turn over pretty frequently. He will, however, have the potential to score 100+ runs for the Mets should he maintain his on-base marks, and his OPS has a very safe floor due to the consistent walk rates. Nimmo also sneakily ranked in the 77th Percentile with a 28 Sprint Speed, making him a threat to chip in with a few stolen bags. Nimmo did steal nine bases in 2018, and was known to be a bit opportunistic at times in the minors. If he can even contribute somewhere between five and eight steals that has solid value these days.

Nimmo is someone you can easily nab as a fourth or fifth outfielder, plug in daily and just not even look at his production on a daily basis. Check back in a month, and you’ll see positive contributions in runs and OPS/OBP, and steady production in other categories that won’t set your heart aflame, but definitely won’t damage your team. It’s not always fun to talk about/own these types of players, but they are, in fact, winning assets. Don’t ignore him.