Longshot Pitchers: 5 Pitchers After Pick No. 375 Who Can Contribute To Winning Rosters

When you’re at the end of you draft, and you’re scanning the dregs for anything useful, consider these five pitchers. They’re better than you think for a variety of reasons, and can raise your team’s floor significantly.

All ADP is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

Mitch Keller, Pirates (ADP: 374)

Keller has a bizarre profile in his first two MLB seasons, but at just 24 years old it’s way too early to give up on him. As a rookie in 2019, Keller struggled to a brutal 7.13 ERA and 1-5 record, but he also had a 3.19 FIP and 3.47 xFIP. There was buzz for him entering 2020, and he did post a 2.91 ERA across 21.2 innings. Unfortunately, his strikeout rate was halved, he walked 7.48 batters per nine, and posted an ugly 6.75 FIP. So who is he?

Time will tell, but his 12.19 K/9 mark is likely closer to the truth than whatever happened in 2020. Keller was known as a high-strikeout pitcher throughout his minor league career, and he was also excellent at limiting his walks. Keller did lose velocity in 2020 – almost two mph on his fastball and nearly three mph on his changeup – but it is hard to put too much stock in anything that happened in 2020. At this point in drafts we are talking about players who are barely drafted at all, and Keller has crazy pedigree for this pile of SPs. He’s being heavily penalized for the shoddy ERA in 2019 when he was absurdly unlucky (.475 BABIP), but nobody is giving him any credit for the sparkling 2020 ERA just because he was very lucky. I think he has potential to be a very good fantasy starter this year, and he absolutely shouldn’t be going undrafted.

Yusei Kikuchi, Mariners (ADP: 383)

Kikuchi came from Japan and was absolutely abominable in 2019, posting a 5.46 ERA with a worse FIP. Kikuchi had another terrible ERA in 2020, which reasonably has turned fantasy owners off of him, but peek under the hood for some surprises. Kikuchi had a rather appealing 3.30 FIP last season, that’s backed by a 9.00 K/9 and impressive 52% ground ball rate. The eight-point increase in ground ball rate helped explain his drastic drop in HR/FB rate, and makes me a believer in the improvement in his FIP.

Kikuchi didn’t just luck into a higher ground ball rate either. He introduced a cutter to the mix, which he threw 40% of the time last season after not throwing a single cutter in 2019. The pitch was 5.2 runs above average per Fangraphs, and allowed him to use his fastball less. By the way, he increased his fastball velocity by three mph, so that’s nice. Ultimately, Kikuchi is a better pitcher than he was in 2019, and his improvements were masked in 2020. There’s value here as an innings eater, and he will surprise a lot of people with his good K numbers and ability to log quality starts.

Luke Weaver, Diamondbacks (ADP: 439)

Okay, so unlike Kikuchi, Weaver didn’t have a secretly solid 2020. He turned in a massive dud after appearing to break out in 2019, but it’s unclear why Weaver sucked. Going 1-9 with a 6.58 ERA is a great way to demolish your ADP, but Weaver still struck out nearly 10 batters per nine, and he did post a 4.67 FIP, nearly two runs lower than his ERA. Weaver was unlucky; his BABIP leapt to .349 and he was coming off a strained forearm in 2019 that cut off his breakout campaign. Weaver didn’t lose any velocity last season either, his pitches were just not as effective. Maybe we can chalk it up to a short season without a normal spring? I’m grasping at straws here, but it is tough to pinpoint how a guy with his draft pedigree can go from looking like a budding ace to radioactive waiver wire fodder without losing velocity and while maintaining the same arsenal of pitches. It’s also worth noting that one of Weaver’s best skills is limiting walks, which he did in 2019 well. That’s helpful in leagues with more unusual scoring where K/BB comes into play. All in all, it could be that 2019 was a fluke. But a former first rounder at age 27 is worth another shot based on one poor season that was topsy turvy due to a pandemic.

Garrett Richards, Red Sox (ADP: 456)

I know, we’ve been waiting on Richards for years but he always gets hurt. I don’t disagree, but what if he didn’t get hurt? If he could somehow stay on the field, I wager he’d be a positive contributor for fantasy teams, even if his days of being a possible ace are gone. Richards managed 10 starts for San Diego in 2020, posting a respectable 4.03 ERA while strikeout out 8.06 per nine and walking just under three. Richards’ velocity is still at 95 mph on the fastball, which is great to see, and that walk rate was the best of his career. It may have cost him some strikeouts – he was setting down more than 10 per nine the previous two seasons – but if it makes Richards a more effective overall pitcher then we’ll take it. Boston is not the worst place for Richards either, because their rotation options are so putrid he can survive a few ugly starts and keep his spot. View him as an extremely cheap source of Ks, and keep in mind that he’s posted an ERA of 4.03 or lower in four of the last five seasons.

Michael Wacha, Rays (ADP: 505)

Speaking of long shots, Wacha is about as long as it gets. His spot in this rotation is likely tenuous, and he was awful for the Mets in 2020, pitching to a 6.62 ERA with more advanced metrics not being kind to him. He’s been above a 4.00 ERA in three of the past four seasons too. Wacha must start 2021 well or you’ll be cutting him. With that said, there were some positives from his time in Queens.

Wacha struck out nearly 10 per nine, the highest mark of his career, while walking only 1.85. That is likely what drew the Rays to offer him a deal. Wacha decreased his fastball usage as well, drastically upping his cutter usage to 27%, up from 15% in 2019. He also threw his changeup 6% more, both of which were far less harmful to the Mets than his fastball. While the changeup was still worth -1.4 runs in 2020, it was worth 10.2 runs in 2019 while he was with the Cardinals. Wacha is a guy who has been a solid mid-rotation fantasy pitcher in the past, and he’s now on a team whose hallmark is maximizing the talents of flawed players. He’s not even 30 yet, so it’s not inconceivable for him to return to usefulness, and he’s essentially free in drafts.