Ready For Primetime: Alex Kirilloff Will Play Plenty, Ready or Not
Alex Kirilloff is 23 years old, a first round pick, and ready for primetime according to the Minnesota Twins. The Twins let outfielder Eddie Rosario, a strong, steady producer for several years, walk away in free agency despite his price tag being exceedingly reasonable because Kirilloff is waiting in the wings. So, is he that good?
The fantasy community isn’t totally sold yet, as his current ADP is No. 264 overall, more than 100 picks later than Rosario. Kirilloff has also never logged a regular season MLB at-bat, so we can’t forget that. Kirilloff’s minor league work is impressive. He hasn’t played above Double-A yet, but he has progressed very quickly, never spending more than one season at any level of the minors. He’s been given a 60/60 Raw Power grade and 50/60 Game Power mark, which was flashed in 2018 when he slugged 13 home runs in 65 games at Single-A. In 2019 he crushed nine home runs at Double-A while slashing .283/.343/.413 and he stole seven bases. Per Baseball Savant, Kirilloff’s power grade has risen since he was selected in the first round out of high school, going from 50 to 55, while his hit tool has remained above-average. He also put up his solid Double-A numbers while battling a wrist injury; some might’ve considered that campaign a bit underwhelming coming off hitting .362 with seven homers at High-A ball in 2018, but his Double-A production at age 21 with a bum wrist is very impressive.
He profiles as a very well-rounded, mature hitter already. Kirilloff has posted strikeout rates below 20% at all levels of the minors, and he maintained a 7.1% walk rate in Double-A. He hasn’t shown himself to be an extreme pull hitter, so he won’t have to deal with a ton of shifts. He’s also a fairly versatile player, who can man either corner outfield spot or first base, where he spent time in 2019.
The key to a Kirilloff breakout will be his power. If Kirilloff’s power is legit right away, he’s going to be an amazing pick at this ADP because he should hit for average as long as MLB pitching doesn’t overwhelm him. With high batting average as a floor, and plenty of runs and RBI opportunities available to him in the Twins’ explosive offense, it’s difficult to imagine him not being an asset on fantasy rosters. But because he’s unlikely to steal – he’s been caught stealing eight times in 18 attempts since 2018 – and because he doesn’t have exceptional walk rates, home runs will make or break him as a breakout or as simply a nice piece. I’m leaning toward the latter for this season, but he’s a tasty value in keeper leagues, and five-outfielder formats.