2020 Bounce Back Values: Javier Baez's Fall Will Be Short Lived

Javier Baez, 28, has been an outlier at SS for several seasons, confounding conventional analytics wisdom. In 2020, the sabermetrics worshippers finally got their comeuppance, as Baez flailed through a shortened 2020 season with a .203/.238/.360 slash  line with eight home runs, 24 RBI and three stolen bases. Baez is currently going at pick No. 72 overall, and he’s the 13th overall SS. So is he now a value at one of fantasy’s most loaded positions, or was he finally exposed in 2020?

Let’s start with what we like about Baez. He exceeds expectations, and typically delivers in the power department – 34 home runs in 2018, 29 in 2019 in just 138 games – and provides stolen bases. He’s also consistently given fantasy owners solid to excellent batting average; from 2016 to 2019 Baez never finished with an average below .273, and was at .283 or better in 2018 and 2019. This stupefied most who pay even a little bit of attention to stats beyond what counts for fantasy. Baez had put up these averages despite strikeout rates in the high-20s, BABIPs consistently in the .340s, and borderline abominable plate discipline. This was Baez’s profile for three straight years, so it was hard to keep betting against the guy.

Now, Baez had one other scary trait – he didn’t walk. He doesn’t walk. Baez walked 6.6% of his at bats as a rookie in 2019, and hasn’t seen that BB% start with a six since. The wheels sure can come off with that type of approach at the plate if the BABIP gods decide to mess with you, and sure enough his BABIP dipped to .262 in 2020. Cue the catastrophic plummet in his batting average, which in turn cratered his OBP to .238. That’s an absolutely wretched number, but that risk is always there for hitters whose only way on base is via contact. The burning question moving forward is whether or not Baez had a down year, or if this is a new normal?

There are some good signs. He posted a Sprint Speed score in the 75th percentile last season, so his lack of stolen bases isn’t from eroding skills. It was because he wasn’t ever on base. He also had an explanation for the severe drops he experienced in Barrel % (lost more than four points), sweet spot % (lost 12 points) and hard hit % (lost 3 points); MLB banning in-game video review affected his hitting. "To be honest, it sucks because I make my adjustments during the game. I watch my swing. I watch where the ball went, where the contact was. I'm mad. I'm really mad about that we don't have it." While Baez blamed the Astros for this, MLB’s official line was that it was coronavirus-related, and they’re allowing players to have tablets this season to analyze their swings.

As a hitter, the only big change for Baez was a major uptick in infield flies; he leapt from 3.9% in 2019 to 14.3% in 2020. Other than that, his line drive, fly ball and ground ball percentages were largely unchanged from 2019, as well as his soft, medium and hard contact percentages. His launch angle was much higher than normal in 2020, which jives with his infield fly rate, and could be explained by his inability to make adjustments in game. Lastly, his plate discipline actually improved a bit in his worst season. He swung at 4% fewer pitches outside the zone, and swung at 3% fewer pitches overall. Hopefully, this was an improvement in approach, rather than a loss of confidence, but Baez has been so good for so long that I’m inclined to be positive.

If he’s right, and he’s this reliant on in-game video adjustments, then 2021 should be a bounce back campaign for one of baseball’s most fun talents. His approach and contact rates were all similar to his best seasons, and his BABIP was uncharacteristically low. We should fully expect his power to come back, and whether or not he blows away his ADP will come down to how much he steals. While he’s likely peaked as a stolen base threat, he’s still one of the faster players in baseball, and was successful on all three of his 2020 attempts. If he can deliver even 15 swipes, he can re-establish himself as a locked in top SS.