2020 Bounce Back Values: The Funeral For Jose Altuve Is Premature

Jose Altuve is currently the 93rd overall pick in fantasy, and the 12th-ranked player at one of the weaker positions in fantasy baseball. It’s been a swift, brutally hard fall from grace for Altuve, an accused cheater who was very recently an easy first round pick. Is this the new reality for one of baseball’s stalwart elite hitters, or have we gotten carried away with narrative and a super weird shortened 2020 season?

Bad news first: Altuve was absolutely horrendous last year. He slashed .219/.286/.344 with five home runs, 18 RBI and only two stolen bases in 48 games. He was dogged by questions about the Astros’ cheating scandal and it was public knowledge that the media assault was affecting him mentally. He’s also going to turn 31 this season, an age in which skills begin to erode for certain types of players, particularly players who derive a lot of value from their legs. The two steals were a career-low, but also a continuation of his descent in the category since 2018. The signs of decline are evident, but is the steep drop justified?

First, while 2020 was an abject disaster, 2019 represented the best power season of Altuve’s career. He mashed 31 taters in only 124 games, posted a career-best .252 ISO  and .550 SLG while continuing to hit for average (.298). As a hitter, he’s yet to show that he has lost his pure hitting skills. 2020’s average dip was accompanied by a career-low .250 BABIP, and the season was so short he did not have the opportunity to let it correct. While his K% was a career-worst 18.6%, he was still in the 78th percentile of Whiff % and his contact rate was still 80.2%, down six tenths of a point from 2019. His exit velocity wasn’t anything to write home about – 86.7 mph – but that’s not noticeably different from any other season. Quite simply, he was a very similar player in 2020 to most of his prior campaigns, except he wasn’t barreling up as many balls and his BABIP slipped.

Speaking of Altuve’s BABIP, some may point to the gradual decline in stolen bases and equate that with diminishing speed, which in turn becomes weaker BABIP numbers. They’d be wrong. While Altuve’s stolen base numbers have been terrible for two straight seasons – and it’d be foolish to draft him expecting the steals to return – it’s not due to a lack of speed. Altuve ranked in the 89th percentile with a 28.4 Sprint Speed. For context, he posted a 28.3 Sprint Speed in 2017, when he swiped 32 bags. Altuve’s base stealing seems to be getting worse, but he’s as fast as he’s ever been.

At the end of it all, Altuve’s a batting average bonus whose power has a moderately high ceiling, but also a low floor. After hitting 24 home runs in 2016 and 2017, he fell to 13 in 2018 before rebounding to hit 31 in 2019.  You’ll draft him this year hoping for 25, but prepared for 15. He won’t steal a bunch, but neither will Ketel Marte, whom you need to draft almost 20 picks earlier and who carries just as much bust risk. His first round ceiling is gone without the expectation of major stolen base contributions, but the upside of a .330 batting average, plus major runs and RBI opportunities in a good Houston offense make him a potential huge value at this ADP.