Deep Sleepers: Edwin Rios Needs A Chance To Mash

Edwin Rios had the look of a potential riser up the ADP charts this Spring as he was penciled in as a starter for the Dodgers, but the re-signing of 3B Justin Turner complicates matters for the young slugger. The unclear path to playing time likely means Rios’ ADP won’t climb much higher than where it currently stands, No. 350 overall, but that keeps him as a supreme bargain for thrifty drafters.

We haven’t seen much of Rios at the MLB level, as he’s only registered 139 career plate appearances, but what we have seen is encouraging. He debuted in 2019 and popped four home runs in just 28 games while slashing .277/.393/.617. Last season he followed that up by doubling the HR total in just four more games, slashing his K% by 16 points and flirting with a .400 ISO. That power is very impressive on paper, and it’s always been there for Rios. Those are not fluke numbers, they’re what to expect from him whenever he plays. He smoked 31 bombs in 2019 at Triple-A prior to his call up and has earned a 70/70 Raw Power grade per Fangraphs’ Prospect Report. While his Barrel % dipped from his rookie campaign, he posted a .639 expected slugging percentage, increased from the prior season.

More impressively, Rios’ power isn’t attached to catastrophic batting average risk like many players who possess his pop. Since rising to Double-A, Rios’ career batting average in the minors was .288, and his OBP never dipped below .340 after his first tour of Double-A. Rios made contact 64.6% of the time in 2020 and posted a 50.8% hard contact rate. Rios is simply an exciting young player who could really help fantasy teams if given the opportunity. Therein lies the biggest hurdle; when will he play?

As covered here when discussing his teammate Gavin Lux’s potential to explode, Rios is blocked by some impressive talent. Max Muncy is penciled in as the team’s primary first baseman, and the Dodgers just re-signed one of the game’s best pure hitters, Justin Turner. Like Lux, Rios is waiting for an injury to re-jigger the positions. Unlike Lux, he’s competing with more formidable challengers. Lux’s direct competition is Chris Taylor. While Taylor is a sturdy veteran, he’s a free agent next season and has a pretty low ceiling. Taylor can also play pretty much every position besides pitcher and catcher, so injuries anywhere likely lead to Taylor filling in, and more playing time at second base for Lux. Rios doesn’t have that luxury. While Muncy can also play multiple positions, he’s not a plus anywhere and the Dodgers are more likely to move Taylor around. Rios also bats left-handed, same as Muncy, so there’s no platoon possibility. This is the biggest reason for Rios’ deep ADP, and why he’s a potential value. It’s rare to find this type of talent so far down the draft board, but there’s serious risk that he’s a wasted roster spot in 2021. Still, this power is worth the attempt, because if Muncy or Turner goes down you likely have found a diamond in the rough.