Bust Warning: Ketel Marte is Living Off The Lie That Was 2019

Ketel Marte is currently the No. 80 overall pick, eligible for three positions, and inside the Top 10 at 2B and inside the Top 15 at SS. That ADP doesn’t seem unreasonable for a player with his versatility who also popped 32 dongs from a middle infield spot along with 10 steals in 2018, but I’m about to throw some cold water on his hype.

As great as 2018 was, I’m wholly unconvinced it was real. Prior to that magical campaign, in which Marte slugged .592 and posted a .264 ISO, his career-high home run total was 14, and he’d never slugged better than .437. He’d never hit more than four home runs in any season at the minors, nor had he hit more than three homers at any level in a single season. In 2020’s COVID-shortened season Marte hit just two home runs in 45 games, losing an incredible 142 points off his ISO. Quite simply, Marte is not a power hitter and at this ADP you’re buying him as such based on a fluky HR total that may or may not have been amped up by juiced baseballs.

In the past, Marte has shown some potential as a base stealer. He stole 23 bases in Double-A in 2014 and 20 in Triple-A in 2015. As a big leaguer he swiped 11 bags in 119 games in 2016 and 10 in 2019, but that is probably a ceiling for him. He has other seasons in the single digits, and his Sprint Speed has dropped into the low-70s since 2019. Marte seems aware of his diminishing quicks, as he attempted just one stolen base last year.

None of this means Marte can’t help your fantasy team. He’s clearly improved as a hitter overall. His .329 average in 2019 did come attached to a high BABIP (.342), but he continued to provide batting average boosts to fantasy teams in 2020 while his power and steals evaporated. Marte hit .287 last season with a maintainable .311 BABIP, healthy 89.2 exit velocity, and fairly even distribution of batted balls. He also doesn’t strike out very  much at all. His 10.8% strikeout rate last year was the best of his career, and placed him in the 99th percentile of MLB. His contact is even more remarkable considering another knock on him for fantasy purposes; dude refuses to walk. While he’s in the top 1% of hitters for limiting strikeouts, he’s in the bottom 3% for taking free passes. That puts a cap on his OBP/OPS potential, making him much more like a store brand Jeff McNeil than a major difference maker.

As a pure hitter, I believe Marte can be a solid contributor to raising your team’s batting average. Beyond that, he doesn’t offer much help elsewhere, and it’s impossible to justify taking him ahead of players like McNeil, Max Muncy or Jose Altuve. Pounce if he falls in your drafts, but at this ADP you can live a little and take some more risk.