Leap to Elite: Adalberto Mondesi's Path To Being An Early First Rounder

Royals SS Adalberto Mondesi’s ADP is currently inside the Top 30, so he’s being drafted as if he’s on the cusp of being elite. But among players within that class, Mondesi probably has the widest range of outcomes. I will probably focus on him a lot throughout the spring because he’s fascinating, but today we will focus on the positives about his game that could make him an early first round pick in 2022.

I won’t beat around the bush…it’s Mondesi’s speed that has us all hot and bothered. He stole 32 bases in 75 games in 2018, 43 in 2019 (102 games) and 24 in just 59 games last season. He did this while posting sub-.300 OBPs in both 2019 and 2020, and walking in fewer than five percent of his at-bats. He posted a Sprint Speed of 30.2 in 2016, and since then hasn’t dipped below 29.1. He’s ranked in the 98th percentile of sprint speed for the last three seasons, and has successfully stolen on 82% of his attempts at the big league level. He has done all this while never appearing in more than 102 games; if we let our imaginations run wild, we are seeing the reincarnation of prime Jose Reyes. I’m fully aware of how much more advanced as a hitter Reyes was than Mondesi, but Mondesi is still only 25 years old and he will be given ample opportunity to work through plate struggles on the rebuilding Royals.

Still, specialists aren’t typically first rounders. He’ll need to do more to be ranked so highly, and he’s thus far underwhelmed as a hitter. I’ll save the many negatives for another time, and hone in on the signs that Mondesi can, in fact, be an impact outside of the base paths.

While he’s failed to hit for much average, he doesn’t walk, and he strikes out too much, Mondesi does hit the ball pretty damn hard. He’s finished two of the past three seasons with an exit velocity of 90 mph, posted a hard hit % of nearly 40% in 2020, and barreled up 7.3% of his batted balls, better than MLB average (6.4%). In 2018, he barreled up 10.4% of his 202 batted balls. Mondesi clocked 13 homers in 85 games at Triple-A in 2017 with a .234 ISO and .539 slugging percentage, and flashed in the big leagues too with 14 home runs in 75 games with a .222 ISO.

He also showed flashes of potential to hit for average in the minors; He batted .305 across 85 games in Triple-A in 2017, and will always have the potential for extremely high BABIPs due to his elite speed. It’s not something I would expect when I spend a high pick on Mondesi, but it’s possible for him to be a benefit in the category, no matter how unlikely.

So the case for Mondesi as a high first-rounder is largely built on the speed. He clearly possesses elite speed and has been given the green light to take off since he arrived in MLB. Given a full season, Mondesi is a near-lock to lead MLB in stolen bases, and do so with a total in the 60s as a floor. That alone gives him close to first round value, without factoring in his power potential. With 20 HRs and 60+ SBs as a possibility, you can deal with his OBP/OPS flaws, and a batting average that’s subpar for his loaded position.