Ready For Primetime: Gavin Lux's Talent Is Irrepressible

If we’re being honest, everyone’s favorite part of draft season is picking out the young players we think are going to explode, and bragging about our flawless sleeper picks after the fact. More often than not, these players either don’t materialize to the extent we expected, or they blow up a year or two after we took the plunge. So in keeping with this site’s ethos, I’m not guaranteeing success for any of the players in this series. I’m just making the case for players who have a really great chance to be difference makers. Today, we talk about Dodgers IF Gavin Lux.

Lux is a highly touted prospect, just 23 years old as of this writing, and has had two cups of coffee at the MLB level. He is currently not projected to be a starter on Opening Day, the biggest contributor to his ADP of No. 236 overall. Another factor is that he hasn’t hit at the MLB level yet. Lux hit .240 in 2019 in 23 games, and struggled to a .175 average last season in 19 games. The final factor is the Dodgers’ loaded roster, and the pesky competence of super utility man Chris Taylor. The argument for Lux is that his talent is too great to be repressed, and given enough opportunity he will force his way into regular plate appearances.

While he hasn’t shown it quite yet, the sample size is small. At the minor league level, he’s proven. Lux’s power was already evident in High-A, when he hit 11 home runs in 88 games. Per Fangraphs, he has been given a 65/65 Raw Power grade and 60/70 Game Power grade. That’s been clear as he has quickly progressed through the minors, smoking 26 home runs in 2019 between Double-A and Triple-A. He popped 13 dingers at each level, hitting his 13 in Triple-A in just 49 games (.327 ISO) before heading to the big leagues. Obviously, MLB is a different level and not everyone with minor league success translates, but his pedigree dictates he receive a longer leash. Lux also dealt with some poor luck in 2020, posting a tough .195 BABIP. The power is real, as are his on-base skills.

Lux didn’t dip below a .375 OBP at any level in the minors since 2018, topping out at an absurd .478 OBP in Triple-A prior to his call up. Even during his underwhelming debut in 2019, when he hit just .240, he still posted a .305 OBP despite a near-30% strikeout rate. Finally, Lux has elite speed, which is a major key to fantasy value these days. Fangraphs’ Prospect Report gave him a 55/55 Speed rating, and he posted a 28.8 sprint speed in 2019, placing him inside the 90th percentile of MLB. Lux stole 27 bags in 2017 in Single-A, and 11 in High-A before his numbers in that category tapered off. He may not be running wild in this lineup with all the run producers that can drive him home by knocking pitches over the fence, but the skill set is present for him to be a healthy contributor in one of fantasy’s scarcest categories.

Ultimately, the biggest question is can he break into the lineup for regular at-bats? What’s the path. First, he will have to scorch the Earth in Spring Training, because Taylor won’t be easy to overcome. Taylor has been a consistent contributor for L.A.; he was a 3.1 WAR player in 2018, and 1.7 WAR player in 2019 in 124 games. WAR is irrelevant for fantasy, but it informs playing time which is what we’re talking about here. He’s been a steady bat, hitting better than .260 for three of the last four seasons, and shows decent pop (21 HR in 2017). He’s also a versatile player, eligible for three positions in fantasy (SS, 3B, OF), but he is projected to start at 2B, blocking Lux.

One way for Lux to get into a regular role would be to hit enough in Spring Training that Dodgers brass is convinced Taylor is more useful spelling other players around the diamond, or being able to fill in at different positions mid-game. Another way is injury, either to Taylor, or to various other players Taylor is capable of replacing. LF AJ Pollock and 3B Justin Turner are both high-risk players with major durability issues, and Taylor can easily slide into their spots when they miss time. Also, for all his versatility, Taylor is not a superb defensive player. He’s posted negative defensive ratings for three straight seasons, so that won’t be a reason to hold back Lux should the youngster begin outperforming him at the plate. 

Lastly, Taylor is a free agent in 2022. If Lux happens to be tearing the cover off the ball, the Dodgers may be able to use Taylor on the trade market to acquire bullpen help, or whatever other needs may arise during the year. Playing time is no guarantee for Lux, but he’s so talented that the Dodgers should be eager to find at-bats for him. There’s enough health risks on this team that we can assume Taylor will be called upon to fill in all over the place, and any game in which Taylor is doing that, believe Lux will be getting his hacks. He’s the 27th second baseman off the board as of this writing, and I absolutely believe he will blow away that ADP.