Deep Sleepers: Joc Pederson's Power Potential Is Unmatched After Pick 300
It isn’t easy to find value past pick No. 300, but believe me, it’s there. Sometimes players in this range explode and become true difference makers. Other times, they simply become roster-deepening assets, or sweeteners for trades. Regardless, they’re valuable and consistently litter playoff and championship fantasy teams. Today, we talk about Joc Pederson, currently being drafted No. 306 overall.
Pederson’s primary value as a major leaguer has been power. He’s popped 25 or more home runs four times since 2014 in his career, largely as a platoon player hitting against right-handed pitching. His best season was in 2019, when he appeared in 149 games and slashed .249/.339/.538 with 36 home runs. Last season, however, was a nuclear meltdown for him. His batting average, never a strength, plummeted to .190 and he only hit seven homers across 43 games and 138 plate appearances. His strikeout rate jumped three points to 24.6%, his ISO dropped to .207, and he posted a sub-.300 OBP for the first time in his career. The cratering of his performance was enough to persuade the Dodgers to let him go this offseason, and he’s now a member of the Chicago Cubs.
The fact that the Cubs were the team to swoop in is encouraging. They lost Kyle Schwarber this offseason, and Pederson has an extremely similar skill set. Compare these two players’ 2019 campaigns:
Avg. OBP SLG HR BB% K%
Pederson .249 .339 .538 36 9.7% 21.6%
Schwarber .250 .339 .531 38 11.5% 25.6%
Like Pederson, Schwarber battled through a nightmarish COVID-shortened 2020 season and slashed .188/.308/.393, leading to the Cubs letting him go. Yet, for some reason, Schwarber is going, on average, 99 picks ahead of Pederson. Batting average is a consistent problem for Joc, one that no one should anticipate will improve dramatically, and absolutely limits his ceiling. But while he’s capable of dips into the low-.200s, he’s hovered very close to .250 for three of the past five seasons, which is not bad at all if his tater total is in the 30s. Players with Joc’s profile usually walk a bit more than he does, but Pederson’s K% was between 19-21% for three straight years, a very respectable rate. Prior to last season’s horror show, Pederson consistently flirted with 80% contact rates, whereas Schwarber lived in the low 70s.
Pederson also has never had a job to his own, due to the Dodgers’ perpetually loaded roster. He has always been a platoon option, but he’s only had 345 career at bats vs. left-handers. His career numbers vs. lefties are not good -- .191/.266/.310 in 385 plate appearances – but he did bat .333 in nine at-bats last season vs. southpaws. It’s not impossible for him to improve vs. same-handed pitchers, and he’s likely to see opportunities to do so in Chicago, as the projected bench bats for the Cubs are David Bote, Idemaro Vargas and Jake Marisnick.
The flaws are very easy to point out. He won’t hit for average. His consistently crappy BABIP is not a good bet to positively regress, despite a 92.9 average exit velocity, because he pulls nearly half of his batted balls. He does not run despite stealing 30 bags multiple times in the minors. But look at the outfielders and first basemen being drafted at this point. The next three outfielders are Brandon Belt, an OBP specialist, Jo Adell, a prospect who will begin the season in the minors, and Adam Duvall. The next three first basemen are Belt, Jeimer Candelario and Joey Votto. Nobody in the range has 35+ home run potential, and you’re not just dreaming on that pop. Pederson literally hit 36 homers just two years ago, and if anything, he’s probably going to increase his playing time in 2021. Pederson probably won’t be a league-winner, but he’s someone to target if you prioritize stolen bases early and you find yourself seeking dongs as your draft winds down.