Bust Warning: Trevor Bauer's ADP Does Not Reflect His Inconsistency

Bust articles aren’t the most fun to write, because it’s far more enjoyable to be excited about a player. Also, when you whiff on a bust pick, for some reason it just makes you feel way dumber than missing on a breakout. Still, identifying “busts” is important, because you don’t want to step on a landmine early in a draft. So these Bust Warnings aren’t necessarily predictions; I’ll be happy to have shares of Trevor Bauer on my teams this year. But it’s extremely important to be aware of the red flags attached to a player who is being taken inside the Top 15 and has a ton of narrative steam powering him in early drafts and mocks.

Bauer is clearly super talented. He is a former Top 3 pick in real life, won the Cy Young last season with an ERA of 1.73, and finished sixth in Cy Young voting in 2018 with a 2.21 ERA. He has struck out more than 10 batters per nine for four consecutive seasons, and been a hardy source of innings pitched. At this point you’re likely wondering what is the concern for a player with this draft pedigree coming off a Cy Young? Well, he pitched four full seasons in MLB before he managed to get his ERA below 4.00, and in 2019 he pitched to a 4.48 ERA as well.

Bauer’s two elite seasons were about as good as you can be as a starter, but they are the outliers of his career. While you can bank on him for excellent strikeout totals, he also regularly walks more than three per nine. It’s also worth noting that even at his best, his xFIP doesn’t always agree with the results. In 2018 his 2.21 ERA was accompanied by a 3.14 xFIP, and last season his 1.73 ERA came with a 3.25 xFIP. Those are still quality numbers in the xFIP column, but they’re not Top 15 overall quality.

Bauer’s Cy Young campaign was bolstered by a .215 BABIP, the lowest of his career, and a 90.9% strand rate, which was his highest ever. Neither of those are sustainable, particularly the strand rate for someone who throws as many innings as he does. In fact, it’s worth noting this Cy Young came in a 60-game season. It’s no stretch to imagine those numbers would’ve begun normalizing during the 2020 season, leaving Bauer to look like a high-end starter, but perhaps not a Top 5 one. So making a decision on Bauer comes down to what do you believe about him? Do you believe he’s an inconsistent talent, or do you believe he has figured out how to be elite, and 2019 is an outlier for the new Bauer?

There are some key positives. Bauer had a more varied approach on the mound last season, increasing usage of his cutter and slider by 3% each. Pitch Info valued the cutter at 2.5 runs above average last season, and the slider at 7.6. Bauer also posted a 2.94 SIERA, which was the lowest of his career, and his hard contact % dropped all the way to 25.3%, down 16 points from 2019, and 10 points from 2018. He’s also leaving Great American Ballpark, the No. 1 ballpark in MLB last season for home runs, for Dodger Stadium (9th).

In truth, Bauer is likely a changed player from the 4.30 ERA guy he was from 2014-2017. His underlying stats during his good seasons may not be quite as elite as his traditional ones indicate, but they’re still very good. If your league uses wins, playing for the Dodgers is probably the best possible situation for him, and leaving arguably MLB’s worst pitching park is obviously a plus. Still, his past does linger, and the variance is greater than for some of the pitchers going right after him. I’m not calling for the bust here, but you can go a safer route at pick No. 14 overall. And now you can’t say you weren’t warned.