The 2020 All-Bust Team
I don’t like being negative, but sometimes helping fantasy owners avoid draft pitfalls is just as important as picking the diamonds in the rough. Here, I’ve created a starting lineup of sorts of “busts,” which, to be clear, means that they' won’t provide value on their ADP, not that they suck.
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros
J.T. Realmuto, C, Phillies (ADP: 53)
Realmuto is a solid player, and him leading off this team of potential busts isn’t about his ability. It’s about his overall production at the ADP required to take him. Realmuto’s stats are as steady as you’ll find at the position, and his floor is Top 3 at the position assuming health. The problem is that you need to be flirting with the Top 50 to lock in his .275, low-to-mid-20s home runs, and 75-80 RBI. Yeah, that production is hard to count on at catcher, but it means you have to pass up on guys like Anthony Rizzo, Keston Hiura, Josh Hader, Zack Greinke and Paul Goldschmidt, who are the next five players off the board per ADP. All of those players have higher ceilings than Realmuto. It’s also worth noting that, as mentioned here, a lot of Realmuto’s production was matched by Christian Vazquez, who was a free agent pickup. Yes, Realmuto offers security, but sacrificing upside for security at this point in drafts limits your ceiling too much. At this current price, he’s no value.
DJ LeMahieu, 1B/2B/3B, Yankees (ADP: 61)
LeMahieu, like Realmuto, can be very valuable to fantasy owners. His ADP is pushed up because of his second base eligibility, which is the scarcest position besides catcher. The issue is that even with three-position eligibility, you’re being forced to buy in on LeMahieu following a career-high 26 home runs, when he’d previously never hit more than 15 despite seven seasons with the Colorado Rockies. LeMahieu has always been a batting average booster, and with the Yankees he should crack 100 runs while hitting around .300, or even better. That’s an asset, but if his power reverts to the teens – where it’s been his entire career – you run the risk of being lapped in the HR and RBI categories by owners who took Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (ADP: 63), Eloy Jimenez (ADP: 64) or Matt Olson (ADP: 65). Yes, 2B is shallow, but in the next round you’re able to get Max Muncy, who plays the same three positions.
Ketel Marte, 2B/SS/OF, Diamondbacks (ADP: 44)
Marte’s ADP makes sense if you’re just basing it off last year’s performance. He slashed .329/.389/.592 with 32 home runs, 10 stolen bases, 92 RBI and 97 runs scored. He was a monster, producing a 46 Offensive rating in his 144 games and likely playing a huge role in winning people fantasy titles. But the thing is, Marte had never even shown an inkling of this level of production before, even as a minor league standout. His previous career-high in home runs was 14, which he set in 2018 while playing in nine additional games. Marte posted a career-high .342 BABIP, and one might credit MLB’s “juiced balls” plus batted ball luck for such a quantum leap in power.
I actually will credit his 9.3% barrel percentage. Marte was squaring up the ball like he never has before, and he raised his launch angle to 11.5, up from 5.7 in 2018, and up from his career-average of 5.75. If these are adjustments Marte has made, and he can continue to barrel up pitches like this, then he should justify the ADP. But I’m wary of players whose home run totals jump by 18, and who topped out at six dongs in the minors. There’s a world where Marte comes down to the high-.200s for batting average, and his home run total sinks to the high teens to mid-20s. you won’t be happy with this price tag in that world.
Marcus Semien, SS, Athletics (ADP: 79)
Semien had the best season of his career by far in 2018, hitting .285 with 33 home runs, 10 steals, 92 RBI, and 123 runs. The issue I have, is that he’d never come remotely close to that level of production before; even in 2016, when he slugged 27 home runs, it was saddled by a .238 batting average. Semien made meaningful improvements in his walk and strikeout rate, made significantly more hard contact and, like Marte, doubled up his barrel rate. There’s a real chance these improvements stick, and Semien is just a middle-of-the-order masher now, but 2019 was so far beyond what he’s been in the past that it feels fluky. I cannot see myself pulling the trigger for him 15 spots ahead of Carlos Correa or 28 spots ahead of Tim Anderson.
Yoan Moncada, 2B/3B, White Sox (ADP: 75)
Moncada was an enormous prospect prior to being called up, and last season was his first good season in MLB. His .315 batting average exceeded his previous career high by 80 points, and he set a career-high in home runs with 25. He also stole 10 bases, scored 83 runs and put up 79 RBI in just 132 games. So, fantasy owners are expecting a lot of growth from here, as he’s only 24 years old. While I get it, I have to point out that Moncada’s batting average explosion was propped up by a ridiculous .406 BABIP, and that while his strikeout rate dropped, it was still at 27.5%, and his walk rate dipped three points.
The counter? Moncada smokes the ball, posting a 92.8 mph average exit velocity last season, putting him in the Top 3% of MLB. He made hard contact almost 50% of the time as well, so Moncada profiles as a player who should consistently post high BABIPs. Still, .406 is too high, and he’s very unlikely to be a .300 hitter again. I also am somewhat concerned that he only stole 10 bases despite above-average sprint speed. Moncada should be a good player moving forward, but I’m not prepared to draft him over players like Matt Chapman and Jeff McNeil.
Whit Merrifield, 2B/OF, Royals (ADP: 48)
Merrifield has been a favorite of mine for several years now, so this brings me no joy. The days of Merrifield being an elite stolen base source may be gone, and if that’s true, he’s not valuable enough in any other categories besides batting average to justify a Top 50 pick. Yes, second base isn’t as chock full of production as other positions, but you can’t overrate scarcity to the point that you draft inferior production just to lock up the position. Merrifield stole 34 bases in 2017, and 45 in 2018. That’s elite. Last season, he hit .302 with 16 homers, 105 runs scored and 74 RBI, but stole only 20 bags.
While that’s a damn good season, we know Merrifield is not going to deliver power or RBI. He hits the ball hard fewer than 40% of the time, so the back-to-back .350+ BABIP seasons are due for regression. And, worst of all, he was caught stealing 10 times last year. That was tenable when he was caught 10 times but was successful on 45 attempts. After being caught on half his attempts, and with mashers behind him (Jorge Soler, Hunter Dozier), Merrifield is a declining asset. Don’t reach here.
Luis Robert, OF, White Sox (ADP: 98)
The ceiling for Robert’s career almost doesn’t exist, but if you want him in 2020 you have to draft him as if he’s done something already. He hasn’t, as I pointed out here, and it could take a bit of time before he grows into his vast potential. The most concerning part of Robert’s profile is his walk rate (4.9% at Triple-A) against a 24.7% strikeout rate against Triple-A pitching. While he should hit for excellent power when he makes contact, and have the freedom to run when he gets on base, his approach could make getting on base with consistency a tall task as he adjusts to big league pitching. I like him this season and love him in keeper formats, but as a redraft option I believe this ADP is a bit high.
Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Yankees (ADP: 54)
I entered this spring expecting to tout Stanton as underrated, but he tweaked his calf already and might not be ready for Opening Day, and it just reminded me of the headache he can be. At his best, and especially in the Yankees’ home run haven, Stanton is a first round talent. He has won an MVP, he’s hit 59 homers in a season, and even in a “down” year in 2018 he hit .266 with 38 bombs, 100 RBI and 102 runs. He’s a monster. He also made it through just 18 games last season. He played in 123 games in 2012, 116 games in 2013, 74 games in 2015 and 119 in 2016. I tend to disregard the injury-prone label in most cases, but for Stanton, it’s earned.
His status for Opening Day must be monitored throughout spring training, but overall Stanton’s become a risky play. He’s 30 years old now, and you’ll be holding your breath any time the guy is in the outfield, which may be often if he’s active and Aaron Judge and Aaron Hicks are not. Outfield is deep, and you can get similar power from a guy like Eugenio Suarez a round or so later.
Yu Darvish, SP, Cubs (ADP: 69)
Darvish’s stock is high this spring thanks largely to a big drop in his walk rate in 2018 and a return to his low-WHIP ways (1.10). The question is, did Darvish figure out his problems, or are we overrating a hot stretch that masked who he is in 2020. Darvish was one of MLB’s best pitchers in the second half, pitching to a 2.76 ERA over 81.2 innings. He posted a 5.01 ERA over the previous 97 innings, and had continued a trend that was established in 2018 injury-shortened campaign.
I’ve been hard on Darvish, and while I am warming up on him again, as his strikeout numbers are consistent and his walk rate is in line with successful 2016 and 2017 campaigns, I am concerned about his durability. Darvish has only hit 200 innings once, way back in 2013, and he’s failed to hit 150 innings four times since 2014; he missed 2015 entirely due to Tommy John surgery recovery. I also do not like the 4.18 FIP he posted in 2019 despite some excellent strikeout and walk rates. I’d prefer the innings that will be eaten by Trevor Bauer (ADP: 80), the elite ceiling of Corey Kluber (ADP: 96), or the high floor of Jose Berrios (ADP: 84) to Darvish’s volatility.
Raisel Iglesias, RP, Reds (ADP: 137)
Drafting closers has become very risky business, and stability is a selling point for Iglesias, who is closing for a team on the come-up. The problem is that Iglesias wasn’t very good in 2019 – 4.16 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, six blown saves – and the Reds have quietly amassed a stockpile of big arms who can replace him in a hurry.
Michael Lorenzen notched seven saves last season, Amir Garrett whiffed 12.54 batters per nine with a 3.21 ERA and averaged 96 mph on his fastball, Pedro Strop has back-to-back seasons with double-digit saves, and Robert Stephenson looms as well. With their eyes on the postseason, Iglesias will not be afforded as long a leash, especially since he has the ability to pitch multiple innings, and could be better deployed in that capacity with a bullpen this deep. He’s been shaky for two seasons, and 2020 is the year he loses his grip.