WAR Heroes: 4 Players Who Are More Valuable Than You Think

For the uninitiated, WAR stands for Wins Above Replacement, a sometimes fuzzy method of determining the value of a player’s season to his real life team. This number can be calculated differently by different sources, but ultimately tells you how many wins a player was worth to his team relative to a replacement-level player. WAR is not relevant directly to fantasy baseball, however it’s worth knowing which players teams view as valuable. This knowledge can affect playing time, or afford talented players more time to play through struggles. The next four players have low ADPs and posted a higher WAR than many big name players at their positions.

** All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros**

Christian Vazquez, C/1B, Red Sox (ADP: 193)

Vazquez likely won’t have the best stats of anyone on this list, but he has the highest ADP based on the scarcity of catchers who can produce viable fantasy numbers. Last season Vazquez hit 23 home runs, recorded 72 RBI, and hit .276 over the course of 138 games for the Red Sox. Prior to last season, Vazquez had never appeared in 100 games or hit more than five home runs. That is why Vazquez is still only ninth off the board at the weakest position in fantasy despite relatively strong numbers. But, Vazquez is a WAR hero.

He was worth 3.5 WAR for the Red Sox last season, owing entirely to his 20.8 Defensive rating. Even if Vazquez were to struggle offensively at the beginning of the season, he is going to receive plenty of at-bats to get right because the Red Sox can’t afford to lose his superior defense behind the plate, especially with run prevention at a premium after losing Mookie Betts’ offense. Plate appearances are king at catcher, and Vazquez should be among MLB leaders at the position. And in the off chance his offense was real last season, and represented who he is as a hitter these days, he compares favorably to the No. 1 catcher, J.T. Realmuto, who is going at No. 52 overall. Last year Vazquez slashed .276/.320/.477 with 23 home runs, 72 RBI, 66 runs and four stolen bases. Realmuto slashed .275/.328/.493 with 25 home runs, 83 RBI, 92 runs and nine stolen bases.

So think twice before that glittering catcher is falling in your draft, batting his eyes at you at what looks like a value. The real value’s down here with Vazquez. All you need are plate appearances.

Kolten Wong, 2B, Cardinals (ADP: 234)

Wong has been an MLB regular since 2013, so it’s unlikely he ever breaks out and becomes a major early-round player for fantasy owners. But, his skill set is so well-rounded that in any given season he could be the type of value that really is important to a championship roster. Wong is a stud defensively, so even when he struggles, he sees regular at-bats because the Cardinals need his glove out there. In 2019, however, Wong finally put it together at the plate. He still has very little power; his career high is 12, and he hit only 11 in 148 games. But Wong hit .285 last year and set a career-high in stolen bases with 24. He reached that average with the help of a .321 BABIP, which is a little high but nothing that stands out as unrepeatable.

But Wong’s real gains were on the base paths. He posted a career-best 7.1 BsR, Fangraphs’ metric for added value as a base runner. His previous high was 4.9, set all the way back in 2014. It goes beyond Wong’s success stealing bases, although 24 out of 28 is damn efficient. That rating means he’s taking extra bags, stealing efficiently, and scoring more runs. He’s projected to hit second this year for a strong lineup, so Wong might become a player who flirts with .300, 80+ runs and 25 steals. At No. 236 overall, that would be crazy value even with the lack of power.

David Fletcher, 2B/3B/SS/OF, Angels (ADP: 268)

Fletcher was a valuable player for the Angels last season, finishing the year worth 3.4 WAR and with a 13.6 Defensive rating and a plus UZR at 2B (1.8), SS (2.4), 3B (5.2) and in the OF (2.3). Defensively, Fletcher is a jack-of-all-trades, master of all, and because of that he’s going to play nearly every day even though he’s currently slotted as a bench player for the Angels.

This kind of versatility is invaluable in fantasy leagues, particularly deep ones, and it helps that he actually can hit a bit. His power is nothing, but he hit .290 last season and .275 the year before that, so at this point he’s bankable in the batting average category. That’s supported by his xBA, which came in at .302 and was in the 96th percentile of all MLB hitters. Fletcher also has a bit of base stealing potential. He swiped eight bags last year (caught three times) and he ranked in the 66th percentile of sprint speed. The moderate steals potential makes Fletcher a two-trick pony, with his two tricks being the scarcest commodities in fantasy baseball. Mix in the four-position eligibility, and I’m shocked at this ADP.

Brett Gardner, OF, Yankees (ADP: 278)

Gardner has been discussed here, but it’s worth mentioning him in the context of WAR and why he endures despite the presence of prospect Clint Frazier in the wings, and the emergence of Mike Tauchman last season. Gardner, now 36, has continued to excel defensively which keeps him ahead of the defensively challenged Frazier in the Yankees pecking order, and he’s changed his hitting profile as the Yankees embrace the modern emphasis on home runs. Gardner set his career high for homers last year with 28, and it was the second time in the last three seasons he’s eclipsed 20. And while his stolen base numbers have dropped – 10 in 2019 was the fewest of his career excluding 2012 when he only played 16 games – his sprint speed remained in the 91st percentile last year.  

Gardner’s runs may take a hit with DJ LeMahieu expected to bat leadoff all year, but the move down in the order may give Gardner more of a green light since he won’t be hitting directly in front of the premium power hitters. His current ADP does not give him credit at all for the year he had in 2019, and despite his age it doesn’t look like his skills are eroding.