Underdrafted Old Men: 5 Players Over 30 Who Have Fallen Too Far In ADP

We are always searching for breakouts and sleepers throughout the draft, but our search for the sexiest pick often leads us to overlook some older fellas who can really help a team out, especially at their current ADP. Consider these players when you draft, or even pass on early options at these positions and target the old (30 or older) men below.

Madison Bumgarner, SP, Giants (ADP: 114)

Bumgarner, who will turn 31 during the 2020 season, is embarking on his first campaign for a team not named the Giants. He is a pitcher I’ve been down on a bit in recent years, but who I’m now looking at as a bit of a value. Following two seasons full of injury and alarming FIP, Bumgarner returned to the 200-inning club in 2019, providing fantasy owners with a 3.90 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 203 strikeouts. His days of being a fantasy ace are done, but 200-inning starters are not plentiful, and Bumgarner proved he’s still a horse.

There was more to like about his season last year. He struck out 8.8 batters per nine, his best mark since 2016, and reverted to walking fewer than two batters per nine. His control of the strike zone mitigates a strikeout rate that is decent, but well below ace-caliber. It also helps depress his WHIP despite below-average velocity. On that note, his velocity hasn’t changed a bit, but with a healthy spring training Bumgarner was able to provide plus value on his fastball, which he utilized 9% more than he did in 2018. While he doesn’t throw as hard as he used to, or as hard as other No. 1 starters, he did rate in the 87th percentile of fastball spin. Across the board, all four of Bumgarner’s four pitches were plus value, with his curveball checking in at nearly 10 runs above average.

Bumgarner’s 3.90 ERA was identical to his 3.90 FIP, and while xFIP (4.31) and SIERA (4.15) aren’t as favorable, I prefer FIP as an indicator. He’s never pitched to an ERA higher than 3.90 in his career, nor has he posted a FIP higher than 3.95 besides a 10-inning cup of coffee in 2009. He has proven that when healthy, he’s still a rock, and despite changing teams he’s still in a pitcher-friendly park in the NL West. Draft this old man confidently.

Elvis Andrus, SS, Rangers (ADP: 145)

Steals are scarce these days, yet Andrus, 31, provides them every season without much fanfare. He’s going at No. 140 overall, just 19th among shortstops, which is a small price for a player who has delivered 25 or more stolen bases eight times in his 11 seasons, and topped 20 two more times. Andrus finished 2019 inside the Top 5 (31 stolen bases), and slashed .275/313/.393 with 12 home runs in the process. He’s projected to hit second for the Rangers, who finished in the Top 12 as a team in runs scored. Interestingly enough, Andrus has had this success as a base stealer despite well-below average sprint speed for several years. This is a tell that Andrus is fast enough to swipe these bags, but is really reliant on his timing and smarts, not pure speed. That will help him maintain his ability longer than others.

We also know his flaws. Andrus doesn’t have power – his 20 home runs in 2017 were a fluke – and he doesn’t walk, so he’ll take a hit in OBP and OPS leagues. But his steals more than atone for his flaws, and at this ADP he could be a very sneaky value, especially because he offers a reliably high batting average.

Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, White Sox (ADP: 155)

Encarnacion is an old man by baseball standards, but even at 37 years old one thing hasn’t changes; he hits the guts out of the ball. Encarnacion has registered an exit velocity somewhere between 89 and 90 mph every season since 2015, and he’s put up equally consistent home run totals to match. He’s swatted at least 32 dongs in eight straight seasons, and because he’s primarily a DH, his age has not drastically increased his risk of injury. This season, Encarnacion is projected to hit fifth for the White Sox, who added C Yasmani Grandal to the mix, and will enjoy a full season of OFs Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert. He’s shown no erosion in his plate discipline, nor did he show any uptick in his strikeout tendencies. He did show a small drop in his zone contact percentage last season, but his overall contact percentage remained almost identical. Encarnacion is basically a lower-rent version of Nelson Cruz at this point. He’s an aging, but incredibly powerful hitter who is going to deliver big numbers in a good offense once again at a discount. If you miss out on an elite 1B early, you can do much worse than waiting until this ADP and grabbing Encarnacion.

Justin Upton, OF, Angels (ADP: 205)

Upton only made it through 63 games last year in a season marred by injuries. He hit .215, managed just 12 home runs, and saw his strikeout rate rise to 30.5%. Now 32 years old, fantasy owners are starting to see greener grass on the other side. This can be to your benefit.

Prior to 2019, Upton hit 30 or more homers for three straight seasons, and had hit 26 or more in five straight campaigns. He eclipsed 100 RBI twice in those five seasons, but never failed to deliver at least 81. His batting average was prone to peaks and valleys, but he delivered an .808 OPS in 2018, and a .901 OPS in 2017. He’s also been extremely durable prior to last year, appearing in 145 games or more in every season since 2010. That’s nearly a decade of consistent power, RBI and runs scored that we are throwing in the trash because of one injury-marred season. And remember, he’s 32 years old; we just talked about Encarnacion, who is going 57 picks earlier despite being five years older.

Upton had been in the Top 20 of barrels from 2015 to 2018, and inside the Top 50 of average exit velocity four times in that span. 2019 is being treated like the beginning of the end for Upton, when prior to being hurt he hadn’t shown any signs of slowing down. Last season may  have been a bump in the road, in which case you’re getting a shot at 30 homers and 100 RBI after pick No. 200.

Howie Kendrick, 1B/2B/3B, Nationals (ADP: 291)

Kendrick is currently an afterthought, going 35th or later at three positions. It makes some sense; Kendrick has never hit more than 18 home runs in a season, and he’s only appeared in 120 or more games five times since 2006. But Kendrick has hit better than .300 for three consecutive seasons, nearly matched his career-high home run total last year with 17 home runs, and appears primed to see a major increase in playing time.

Washington re-upped Kendrick on a one-year deal for $6.25 million, hardly bench player money. He’s not projected by Roster Resource as a starter, but there are many avenues to playing time for him. He could slide in as a platoon-mate with Eric Thames at first base should the brittle Ryan Zimmerman get injured. He could eat away at playing time from Starlin Castro at 2B, or outplay him and become the starter. He could outplay Carter Kieboom and take over at the hot corner as well, or slide at 3B in should Trea Turner miss time at SS and require Kieboom to move over. The presence of Asdrubal Cabrera dampens the outlook a bit, but Kendrick has been the superior player lately. If he finds a regular role, he’ll vastly outperform this ADP.