5 Young Prospects Who Could Be League Changers
It pays to plan ahead. Sometimes you find sleepers at the end of the draft who become stars. Other times, you have to be proactive and draft tomorrow’s stars right now, even if they won’t pay dividends on Opening Day. Below are five prospects with limited or no MLB exposure who could make waves in 2020. Just not necessarily right away.
Aristides Aquino, OF, Reds (ADP: 201)
Aquino has gotten a lot of bad press this spring and has been a major faller in ADP. He is currently projected to begin the season in Triple-A, and his terrible spring training performance thus far has increased that likelihood. Still, flaws and all, it’s hard to ignore the fact that he crushed 19 home runs last season in 56 games, and also stole seven bases. Aquino’s power is devastating; he’s posted two separate 20 or more home run seasons in the minors, and two others in which he hit more than 14. In 2014 at Single-A, he stole 21 bases in 71 games.
We know about his issues. Aquino strikes out a lot, does not walk much (7.1% walk rate) and posted a terrible 65.7% contact rate. Even worse, he made contact outside the zone just 54.8% of the time, and swung at pitches outside the zone at a 41.2% clip. That unquestionably needs to be sorted out. But, Aquino also posted a strong 89.7 mph exit velocity, an 18.1 degree launch angle that’s seven points better than MLB average and ranked in the 89th percentile of sprint speed. He also barreled the ball 13.6% of the time, more than doubling the league average. The upside here is Joey Gallo-esque with speed, and we saw the extremes in 2019. Starting the season in Triple-A could do him wonders, but the Reds look like a potential contender in 2020, and they will need the kind of impact his bat is capable of providing. This bump in the road is not only a good thing for his career, it creates value for fantasy owners trying to find a nice stash.
Jo Adell, OF, Angels (ADP: 234)
Adell is possibly the No. 1 prospect in baseball right now, and is widely expected to break into the bigs this season at age 20. Like Aquino, there are some clear issues present that might become easy to overlook when the whole package is evident. Adell posted a 32.6% strikeout rate in 27 games at Triple-A last season, painting a portrait of a 20-year-old who has to adjust to a higher level of pitching. That’s likely to be expected whenever he makes his MLB debut too, as he’s had a strikeout rate in the mid-20s to mid 30s since leaving Single-A. Adell also has thunderous power in his bat (60-grade power per Baseball Savant), and excellent speed, making him an across-the-board contributor for fantasy owners. We may have to wait for him to get to the Show if he starts off the season at Triple-A slowly, but 30-year-old Brian Goodwin is no major impediment in RF. We will see Adell sooner rather than later.
Clint Frazier, OF, Yankees (ADP: 370)
The rash of injuries that has bent the Yankees over this spring has been depressing for most who follow the team, but not for Clint Frazier. For Frazier, this is his chance to stake his claim for a regular role on a team with World Series aspirations. Frazier, now 25, was a major prospect when he was acquired for RP Andrew Miller, who was at the time one of the elite relievers in baseball. He has flashed major talent since then, but a combination of attitude, reprehensible defense, and veteran blockades in the OF have prevented him from having any kind of lasting impact. This year, thanks to injuries to Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Hicks, Frazier is expected to open the year as the starting RF.
So what do we like? He barreled the ball 10.7% of the time last year, a healthy 4.5% better than league average, and he had a high launch angle which takes advantage of Yankee Stadium’s homer friendliness. He hit 12 homers in 69 games last year, and that’s with a fairly low 34.5% hard contact rate.
There’s quite a bit we don’t like as well. He failed to crack a 70% contact rate last year, and he does not walk (6.5% walk rate), while striking out way too much (28.5%). The signs are there that he may never be a major fantasy asset, but he’s never been given enough of an extended look at the big league level to be sure. He’s posted more passable walk rates in the past in the minors, and he is still only 25 with fewer than 500 MLB plate appearances. Given his talent, there is the possibility of a breakout season where he forces the team to find him at bats. Right now, even with that opportunity presented, you still don’t have to pay much to find out.
Brendan Rodgers, 2B/SS, Rockies (ADP: 539)
Usually a major hitting prospect in Colorado would have everyone drooling, but Rodgers, the top prospect in the Rockies’ system, is basically free. He was terrible in a cup of coffee last year with the big club, slashing .224/.272/.250 across 25 games (81 plate appearances). He showed none of the power and speed he was displaying at Double-A in 2018, when he hit 17 home runs and stole 12 bases, or in Triple-A when he batted .350 with nine bombs over 37 games. That talent does not go away just because he struggled a bit in his first taste of major league action, and he could very easily rake early this year and force his way past Ryan McMahon or Daniel Murphy. Unlike many top prospects who are threatened by service time manipulation, Rodgers has already debuted, so if he’s crushing it expect the team to get him up ASAP. He’s a former No. 3 overall pick, they’re not going to let averageish veterans block his path.
Brent Honeywell Jr., SP, Rays (ADP: 677)
Honeywell is a potential future ace, and at some point this season he’s likely to make a big impact on the Rays’ rotation. He had Tommy John surgery in 2018, then had to miss all of 2019 with another injury to the same elbow. But, that’s the bad news. He’s continuing rehab at this point, and when he’s ready to pitch, he’s shown he has a bright future.
Honeywell was 12-8 with a 3.64 ERA in 2017 at Triple-A, with a 2.84 FIP and 11.06 K/9. He’s always displayed awesome command, never walking more than two batters per nine at any level, and consistently striking out more than 10 per nine. He doesn’t have incredible velocity, but he can hit mid-90s with his fastball, and surgically control his other pitches, notably a screwball. Honeywell’s path to the Rays’ rotation is clear provided he can get healthy, as they’re currently projected to rely on two “openers” (Yonny Chirinos, Ryan Yarbrough) with regularity. Honeywell is obviously not in demand, but if your league has an NA spot he could be a game-changer – or a juicy trade sweetener – down the line.