Underdrafted Old Men 2021: 5 Players Over 30 Who Have Fallen Too Far In ADP

We are always searching for breakouts and sleepers throughout the draft, but our search for the sexiest pick often leads us to overlook some older fellas who can really help a team out, especially at their current ADP. Consider these players when you draft, or even pass on early options at these positions and target the old (30 or older) men below.

All ADP data courtesy of FantasyPros.

Zack Greinke, SP, Astros (ADP: 99)

Greinke, at age 37, is going three picks after Jesus Luzardo, who hasn’t logged 60 innings in an MLB season yet, and three picks ahead of Dylan Bundy, who has a career ERA of 4.54. This is a clear case of age bias, as Greinke has not shown signs of the fall-off that this ADP seems to be predicting. Greinke hasn’t had a down season since 2016, when he pitched to a 4.37 ERA in 158.2 innings. He threw 200+ innings for the next three seasons, never posting an ERA higher than 3.21, and never eclipsing a 2.00 BB/9. Maybe he’s being discounted because of the 4.03 ERA he put up in the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign across 67 innings, but that would be extremely foolish of fantasy owners.

To start, Greinke’s FIP was 2.80, and his xFIP was 3.51, both significantly better than the ERA he finished with and more predictive of what’s to come. He dealt with poor luck, posting a .321 BABIP, and posted a lower average exit velocity (86.8) than in any of the prior three seasons. His control remains superb, and his 1.13 WHIP – yes, his highest since 2016 – still is elite. While he lost two miles per hour on his fastball, his hard contact rate was barely affected, an Greinke has never been a pitcher who relies on his heat to succeed. He appeared to lose pitch value across the board, but that does not factor in the abbreviated spring training, nor the shortened season. Simply put, outside of his age, there aren’t any signs that Greinke was a meaningfully different, or worse, pitcher in 2020 besides a bloated ERA. He is the ace of Houston’s staff, and backed by a still-strong lineup, Greinke should be a good bet for 15+ wins over a full season. This ADP will likely rise as we get closer to real drafts, but if you are drafting early Greinke looks like a great buy.

Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Yankees (ADP: 107)

Stanton’s ADP demise is understandable. He played just 18 games in 2019, and 23 games in 2020, which is bad even for a massively shortened season. But, he’s only 31 years old, his home park is a home run haven, and he’s been really good in his microscopic sample sizes. In 2019 he was slashing .288/.403/.492, and last year he was at /250/.387/.500. He had smoked four home runs in 23 games, driven in 11 runs and scored 12. He even lowered his K% a bit, and had returned for the postseason where he swatted six homers in seven games. We are talking about a former MVP here with legendary (not an exaggeration) power in the tail end of his prime years.

The Yankees have a deep roster that affords them the ability to primarily DH Stanton, which is helpful in limiting his exposure to injury. Obviously, this isn’t foolproof; he’s been hurt in back-to-back seasons. But he played in 159 and 158 games, respectively, in 2017 and 2018 and returned wonderful fantasy production. Stanton is one of the few players in fantasy who carries legitimate 50+-HR potential, and as a career .268 hitter he won’t tank your batting average to do it. After pick 100, you just don’t find upside like this even if it’s attached to major injury risk.

Josh Donaldson, 3B, Twins (ADP: 178)

Donaldson, age 35, is quite the roll of the dice. When he plays, he is a fantastic source of power. Since 2015, he has hit at least 33 home runs in seasons where he played at least 100 games. The issue is that when he doesn’t play 100 games, he’s playing 25-50, and that equals a bust. And he’s been injury plagued in two of the last three seasons. I’m including Donaldson here, however, because his skills don’t appear to have eroded. Last season was a crazy one, and he hit just .222, but he a) suffered from a .231 BABIP and b) still smacked six dongs in 28 games.

Donaldson’s K% was identical to 2019, when he hit 37 home runs and batted .259, and his walk rate went up two points to 17.6%. Donaldson continued to be a high-OBP hitter (.373) in 2020, averaged 92.8 exit velocity, and maintained his low soft contact percentage. His ground ball rate was up in 2020, but that can be partially attributed to battling injury, and the overall small sample. It’s hard to ding players too much who didn’t meet expectations in 2020, because they weren’t given anything close to a full season to make the adjustments we expect. So when there aren’t any glaring changes to their profile, and there’s a long track record of success, it doesn’t make much sense to abandon these guys completely.

Chris Sale, SP, Red Sox (ADP: 206):

Sale is coming off Tommy John surgery, so there is going to be some care exercised at the outset when he returns. However, with his return pegged for midsummer, Sale could deliver a major boost for fantasy postseason pushes.  He’s been elite his entire career, and even in 2019 as he battled the arm issues that led to his surgery, he was whiffing 13.32 batters per nine and walking only 2.26. His ugly 4.40 ERA was masking a 3.39 FIP and sparkling 2.93 xFIP. This is a dude who was pitching at an elite level with, in his words “a hole in my arm.”

Maybe he won’t be the ace Chris Sale who signed a $145 million contract right away, but upon his return he will instantly become a source of strikeouts and low WHIP. At pick No. 204, he is well worth a stash.

Justin Turner, 3B, Free Agent (ADP: 213)

Turner, 36, doesn’t have the power profile of Donaldson, but he has been one of MLB’s best pure hitters since 2013. Not kidding, it’s been that long. Turner has dipped below .280 once since 2013, and it was when he hit .275 in 2016. His power has come and gone, but he can be relied upon for elite batting average, and he has the ability to flirt with 30 bombs. Currently a free agent, Turner could turn into a good source of runs and RBI depending where he lands, and he’s an elite source of OBP in those formats. Clearly, the knock is health; Turner is old (for an athlete) and he hasn’t played more than 135 games since 2016, but you can make up the production for one or two IL stints. What Turner gives you when he’s on the field is production that is as solid as a rock.