Fantasy Baseball Advice: 5 Relievers To Trade For Or Pick Up For Saves
Being ahead of the curve is super important. No one is a mind reader, but as we approach the All-Star break, it’s clear that a small grouping of teams will be open for business regarding trades. The defending champion Red Sox are currently second in MLB in the ignominious blown saves category, a fatal flaw for a team hoping to repeat. So it only makes sense to make some speculative trades or adds in the hopes of landing a player who can wind up in Boston, or with some other contender and soak up save opportunities.
After mining through the bottom-feeders, these relievers are the likeliest candidates to attract Boston’s interest.
THE CLOSERS
Will Smith, Giants (85% Owned): Smith is someone you’ll need to trade for, as he was the presumed closer this spring and has been lights out for the Giants this year. San Francisco has blown a league-low four saves in 2019, and zero were blown by Smith. He has posted a sparkling 2.16 ERA and his FIP is even better (2.04). He’s striking out close to 14 batters per nine, and accumulated 21 saves already. Smith’s transition to closer has been seamless, and he’s built on a foundation of excellence when he was a setup man in Milwaukee. Madison Bumgarner generates a ton of trade speculation for the last-place Giants, but Smith, realistically, is the guy most likely to be on the move for a strong prospect haul. Boston’s closer situation is abysmal, and with Craig Kimbrel off the market – WHOOPS! Amiright? – their playoff hopes could be doomed by an inability to hold leads. Smith should be their top priority ahead of the trade deadline.
As far as fantasy goes, Smith is an excellent example of how great pitchers can rack up saves, even on bad teams. Smith gets all the opportunities unless he’s getting a day off, and he’s saved 21 of San Francisco’s 37 wins. Should he land in Boston with one of MLB’s better offenses, he can be an elite reliever the rest of the way. Get him before a trade gets done.
Ian Kennedy, Royals (52% Owned): At no point this spring did I think I’d be writing a single word about Ian Kennedy, but here we are. Once a highly touted starting prospect, Kennedy has successfully transitioned into the bullpen, where he’s serving capably as a closer for the Royals. Kennedy’s ERA is a serviceable 3.27 at the time of this writing, his FIP backs up the success (2.21), and he’s rocking a tasty 6.67 K/BB ratio. Kennedy has nothing like Smith’s track record in relief, but these early results are very encouraging. His 52% ownership suggests people aren’t believers just yet, or they think Kansas City will ship him somewhere for prospects and he’ll lose his status. But not if he lands in Beantown, where he immediately becomes their best option to close games. Kennedy should cost less in future assets than Smith, so the Red Sox may aim a little lower to preserve their farm.
Sergio Romo, Marlins (46% Owned): Romo, unlike Smith and Kennedy, is not having a particularly good season. At 36 years old, with a 4.35 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and just 15 total saves in 2019, he’s not an attractive trade piece or fantasy add. Still, despite the ugly numbers, Romo has only blown one actual save chance in 2019 out of 16 chances. Also, his age and inflated ERA might scare off potential suitors, leaving him all year with the lion’s share of save opportunities in Miami. Cringe all you want, but Smith is showing that having the role to yourself on a bad team is better than sharing the job on a contender. If Romo landed in Boston, he’s a fair bet to assume the job at first. Despite some subpar stats, he has 124 career saves, has closed for a playoff team, and is not named Matt Barnes, Brandon Workman or Ryan Brasier.
READY TO STEP UP
Seth Lugo, Mets (10% Owned): Edwin Diaz was the Mets’ prized acquisition this offseason, but Lugo has shockingly been their most reliable bullpen arm. He’s not going to get save opportunities in Queens, but if they continue to lose in painful fashion, and drop further out of the wildcard race, it’s not hard to imagine contenders lighting up the Wilpons’ phones about Lugo. The 29-year-old reliever is versatile, capable of serving as a starter, or deploying his career-high 11.93 K/9 rate at the back end of the bullpen. Lugo has posted a respectable 3.60 ERA with a nearly identical FIP, and his strikeout spike hasn’t been accompanied by any noticeable rise in walk rate. Were he to join the Red Sox bullpen, it’d be hard for them to not immediately put him in the ninth inning. It helps that he did notch three saves in 2018, so he’s not completely unfamiliar with the role. It’s probably unlikely, but for fun purposes this is my favorite add on the list.
Raisel Iglesias, Reds (78% Owned): Iglesias is still heavily owned, but he’s been bad this season and has lost his job – maybe temporarily – as the Reds’ closer. He’s lost the role for good reason; a 4.41 ERA isn’t going to cut it as a door-slammer, nor is a 1.47 WHIP. But, it’s possible that Iglesias needs a change of scenery. He notched 30 saves last season for Cincinnati, and even though his 2018 FIP (4.23) portended this downfall, he remains a healthy source of strikeouts and his home run to fly ball ratio is actually down from the previous campaign. His walks have risen to 4.41 per nine, which is unacceptable, but he’s also suffered from an uncharacteristically high BABIP (.333). I do not love Iglesias going forward, but his killer stuff is going to appeal to contenders. I can see him earning saves again by the time the deadline passes, or even if he remains in Cincy and simply improves.