Every Team's Most Interesting Player: Arizona Diamondbacks, Ketel Marte

This is the first in a series of articles about the most interesting player for fantasy owners on each team heading into the 2020 season. We are going alphabetically, so today we’re going to talk about Ketel Marte of the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Marte was one of 2019’s biggest breakout stars, and while it was not shocking to see him be a valuable fantasy asset, the way he went about it was unexpected. Marte, who was a major prospect primarily because of his slick glove, finished the 2019 campaign with a .329/.389/.592 slash line as well as 32 home runs, 92 RBI, 97 runs and 10 stolen bases. He was an afterthought entering the season, but is now the No. 44 player off the board per FantasyPros’ ADP data. Based off those stats, he should clearly be a priority for fantasy owners, especially since in some formats he’s eligible at three position. To me, however, his candidacy as a Top 50 player is very much in question.

First, where the hell did all those home runs come from?

2019 was a ridiculous season for homers; there was a massive, sport-wide power spike that led to speculation that MLB actually juiced the baseballs to improve offense. That still doesn’t explain the jump Marte made. The most home runs Marte had ever slugged at the minor league level was six, which he did in 70 games in Triple-A. Marte has been in MLB for five seasons, and had never hit more than 14 home runs in any season; in his first three seasons he didn’t even exceed five, although he never played in more than 119 games in that span. As a minor leaguer he had zero track record of being a power hitter, and he failed to resister in that department in four straight MLB seasons to begin his career.

Marte was more aggressive at the plate than he had been in the past, swinging at two percent more pitches than in 2018, and three percent more pitches outside the zone. His contact percentage was essentially the same despite being more free swinging; Marte’s biggest improvement was a five percent dip in soft contact. Marte experienced a six-point jump in hard contact; that explains a leap in his home run total, but doesn’t explain the Olympic distance from 14 to 32 dongs in nine fewer games. Marte’s walk rate and strikeout rate are pretty much unchanged, but his BABIP leapt from .282 to .342. Marte seems to have become a better hitter, but this drastic rise in home runs is probably a fluke. Will the rest of his game help justify the inflated ADP?

Before we anoint Marte as a “batting average guy” because he hit .329 last year, I’ll call attention a second time to that .342 BABIP. Even for a player who was hitting the ball hard 41% of the time, that’s high and likely to come down. Prior to 2019, Marte had hit better than .260 just once, his rookie year when he appeared in just 57 games. He did hit for average in the minors, but until last year he hadn’t proven he could do it in the bigs. It is possible this aspect of his breakout was real, but we can’t take it as gospel until we see more.

Lastly, Marte’s speed hasn’t translated into a major fantasy asset. He’s had multiple 20+-steal seasons at the minor league level, but has yet to swipe even 12 bags as a big leaguer. If we build in a sharp decline in home runs, and a dip in batting average, Marte will need steals to remain viable at his ADP. While it’s possible for him to get into the 20s based on his minor league track record, that skill hasn’t shown up in five seasons.

While Marte has a fine glove, that’s not relevant to fantasy owners. He should score a ton of runs atop Arizona’s lineup, but he is a glaring recession candidate fantasy owners should be wary of, and avoid inside the Top 50. Let someone else make that mistake.