Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice: Should You Dump These Fantasy Superstars Part 2

The following pitchers are killing you. I know. If you drafted any of these players at their ADP, you’re definitely unhappy with the return on investment. But my goal is to help you move forward with a clear mind. Here’s how you should handle some of the most underwhelming pitchers in fantasy in 2019.

If you missed out on the underwhelming hitters edition, I got you right here.

Blake Snell, SP, Rays

All is not well with Snell. The reigning Cy Young in the American League is sitting on a brutal 5.01 ERA, and since the beginning of June he’s pitched to a hideous 11.94 ERA that includes a start in which he recorded one out and gave up six earned runs. Despite that unfathomable ERA, in some ways Snell’s been Snell. He’s striking out more than 11 batters per nine over this rough stretch. In other ways, Snell being Snell hasn’t been great. He’s also walked more than six batters per nine in this span, and failed to go deep in games, lasting longer than 4.1 innings just once.  He had been much better prior to this slump, so what’s the real deal moving forward?

Snell’s K/9 is higher than ever, which is fantastic, and his walks haven’t jumped much from his Cy Young campaign. His FIP is 3.47, a much better number that makes sense in the current home run-happy landscape, and his xFIP is even lower (3.19). His BABIP is very high -- .357 – so his ERA spike can be heavily attributed to that. He’s also seen a spike in his HR/9, which has soared to 1.25 from .80 a year ago.  There’s barely any difference in Snell’s velocity in 2019 from last season, his swinging strike rate has gone up, and he’s actually giving up less hard contact than 2018. If you own Snell, you’re absolutely and justifiably frustrated with this past month, but hang in there soldier.

IF YOU HAVE HIM: Keep him.

SHOULD YOU TRADE FOR HIM?: Snell is undoubtedly a buy-low candidate. Ignore the 5.01 ERA, as its inflated, and ERAs have risen across the board. I wouldn’t hate it even if you paid full price to acquire Snell, but if you can snag him for 85-95 cents on the dollar, you’ve won.

Aaron Nola, SP, Phillies

I didn’t see this season for Nola coming. He broke out in 2017, became a bona fide ace last season, and has reverted to the disappointing pitcher we saw in 2016. Even worse, at least in 2016 his peripherals portended a future breakout. Right now, we have a pitcher in his prime pitching to a 4.55 ERA with a 4.40 FIP and 4.18 SIERA if that last stat is more your bag.

Two problems are glaring. First, Nola’s experienced control issues, with his BB/9 jumping to 3.74. Second, opposing hitters are, quite frankly, hitting the goddam cover off the ball when he pitches. Nola’s hard contact rate has climbed to 39%, with a line drive rate that’s risen five points from his peak season a year ago. Despite his strikeout rate hitting a career high, his pitches aren’t confounding hitters these days; per Fangraphs’ pitch values, his curveball is the only offering above average, and the runs above average on that hammer are down by 18 runs. His swinging strike rate has dipped three points, and opposing hitters are making contact on 87.6% of Nola’s pitches in the zone. Nola is too talented to simply be a mediocre-to-bad pitcher, but none of this is encouraging.

IF YOU HAVE HIM: Trade him for multiple, “lesser” arms. He’s probably done damage to you this year, and elite starting pitching is going to cost you dearly in a trade. See if another owner is down to gamble on Nola’s upside, and give you two or three mid-tier pitchers that will boost your counting stats and give you more win opportunities.

SHOULD YOU TRADE FOR HIM?: No, unless the discount is crazy. Nola remains a valuable source of strikeouts, but his 1.45 WHIP is disgusting, and none of his peripherals suggest a turnaround.

Noah Syndergaard, SP, Mets

Syndergaard’s hamstring injury complicates things slightly, but word on the street is he’s pitching Sunday. 2019 has been strange for Thor, as he’s posted a 4.55 ERA – nearly a run and a half higher than his career mark – and he’s striking out 8.81 per nine, the lowest rate he’s ever posted. His ERA is hurt by a spike in home runs, which is affecting pitchers across the sport, elite or not. Otherwise, he’s been strikingly similar to 2018 Syndergaard in a lot of ways. His BB% is literally the same, his K% is off by tenths of a point, and his velocity is unchanged. So what’s driving this downturn?

Syndergaard has fallen in love with his fastball, which he is throwing 31.7% of the time, up from 20.7% last season. Yeah he brings the heat, but MLB hitters can catch up to it, as evidenced by his fastball coming in at 1.7 runs below average. Contrast that with his changeup, which has been worth 9.4 runs this season. It’s not surprising, given how often he throws the heater, that hitters are getting fooled by the changeup. The Mets just canned their pitching and bullpen coaches, so we’ll see if the new blood deep dives into Syndergaard’s trends and convinces him to re-think how he deploys his awesome arsenal going forward.

IF YOU HAVE HIM: Keep him. His value is too low, and the Mets too toxic, for you to trade him right now. There’s still great upside, and he has some of the best stuff in baseball, so there’s no need to give up on him at this point.

SHOULD YOU TRADE FOR HIM?: No. His insistence on throwing straight heat is unfortunate in this hitting climate, where his fastball is going to create wild exit velocity. His homers are up, and they’ll stay that way if he doesn’t begin incorporating his breaking pitches more. I’m not sure if he’ll do that, so unless he’s very discounted the rest of the season is likely to be flashes of brilliance, but more mild frustration.

Trevor Bauer, SP, Indians

Bauer’s having one strange season. His 3.69 ERA and 9.77 K/9 are very useful in the 2019 harsh-for-pitching environment, as are the 112.1 innings he’s been able to throw already, but there are red flags that the wheels could come off for him. I do not like his 3.69 BB/9 that calls back to the Bauer of 2015-2017, in which he was a middle-of-the-road fantasy starter. I definitely don’t like his 4.27 FIP or his 4.55 xFIP. And I especially dislike that he’s been underwhelming for his draft position despite the excellent luck indicated in his .254 BABIP. Bauer’s 2019 is a close relative of his earlier seasons, and is making 2018 look like a tremendously fun outlier.

Despite Bauer’s excellent strikeout numbers, his swinging strike rate is down from last year, and hard contact against him has risen by five points. Hitters are making more contact against him, and two of his best pitches, his fastball and curveball, have lost effectiveness from last season.

IF YOU HAVE HIM: Trade him. Bauer’s ERA isn’t what you wanted, but it’s decent for this season. He’s walking a tightrope if his peripherals are to be believed, and he gets shoddy run support from the Cleveland lineup. Trade him now while he still has close to his top value.

SHOULD YOU TRADE FOR HIM?: Only if you are in major need of strikeouts or quality starts. You can bank on Bauer to strike out hitters, and pitch a ton of innings. It will get ugly at times though, so if you aren’t getting a discount, he won’t be worth it.

Edwin Diaz, RP, Mets

This offseason the Mets thought so highly of closer Edwin Diaz that they took on 2B Robinson Cano to acquire him. Diaz has rewarded them with a 3.64 ERA and three blown saves out of 19 chances. Diaz was a consensus fourth round pick, and the top closer in most drafts, so he’s absolutely been a fantasy disappointment. He’s been a good pitcher though, and that’s what’s important going forward.

Diaz’s unusually high ERA masks a more palatable 3.12 FIP, and he’s striking out more than 14 batters per nine, while walking just 2.43. He’s managed this despite a .400 BABIP, nearly 100 points higher than his career mark. The Mets have made typically comical headlines lately, but they aren’t among the worst teams in baseball. Even garbage teams can host a top fantasy closer – see Shane Greene’s 21 saves for the Tigers – and Diaz is a far better pitcher. The Mets have enough talent in their lineup and rotation to surge and give Diaz the save opportunities he needs to thrive. His low save total (16) to this point should only encourage you about his outlook.

IF YOU HAVE HIM: Keep him. Closers with sole possession of the save opportunities are extremely scarce, and even if Diaz struggled he’d find it difficult to lose his job in the Mets awful bullpen. He has all the opportunities and he’s arguably the most talented reliever in baseball too.

SHOULD YOU TRADE FOR HIM?: Yes. Like steals, saves are an incredibly valuable commodity these days, and Diaz is going to soak them all up. Go get Edwin Diaz.