Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice: Should You Dump These Fantasy Superstars Part 1

The following hitters are killing you. I know. If you drafted any of these players at their ADP, you’re definitely unhappy with the return on investment. But my goal is to help you move forward with a clear mind. Here’s how you should handle some of the most underwhelming hitters in fantasy in 2019.

Jose Ramirez, 2B/3B, Indians

I know I’ve talked a ton about Jose Ramirez this season, but his abysmal production through 76 painful games is simply one of the most stupefying bombs I’ve ever seen in more than a decade of playing fantasy baseball. Ramirez, who broke out in 2017 with a 29-homwe run, 17-stolen base campaign, and became a superstar in 2018 by hitting 39 bombs and stealing 34 bases, has been a zero-WAR player in 2019. ZERO!!!! What the hell is going on?

Last month I advocated for adding him largely based on his .213 BABIP, compounded by a 252 BABIP last year in which he still managed to produce at a Mike Trout level. While his overall numbers remain trash, there have been signs of life. Since June 9, Ramirez has hit .269 and slugged a much healthier .423, a figure that includes a double, two triples and a home run amount his 14 hits in that span. He’s also hit with runners on, notching 8 RBIs and continuing to steal bases (3). That latter part is the most important aspect of Ramirez’s season; while he’s been a true fantasy tragedy almost across the board in 2019, he has stolen 18 bases, third most in MLB, as of this writing. As irritating as this will be to hear for Ramirez owners -- ::raises hand:: -- Ramirez’s season has been unbelievably unlucky. He has hit more fly balls in 2019 than he ever has in his career, only to see his HR/FB ratio drop 12 points from last year, all while posting a near-identical hard contact rate. His BABIP has remained low, something that simply must change at some point and has shown improvement lately. While his 39 homers last season are probably not the norm, his total of five this season is equally ridiculous.

IF YOU HAVE HIM: Keep him.

SHOULD YOU TRADE FOR HIM?: Yes, but don’t pay full price. The steals are reliable, but his peak power is looking like a fluke. 80-85 cents on the dollar should do.

Bryce Harper, OF, Phillies

Harper’s got even more eyeballs on him than ever before thanks to his record-breaking contract, and thus far he’s been underwhelming. So far he’s slashed .248/.364/.461 in Year 1 for Philadelphia, with 13 home runs, 52 RBIs and four stolen bases. These are okay numbers for a major league outfielder, but you’d struggle to find anyone happy to pay $330 million over 13 years for that level of production. Most will point to the stress in Year 1 of playing under such a mammoth contract, playing for not the Nationals for the first time in his career, and bad luck for the sub-standard start to the season. Despite his incredible talent, I’m a little more worried.

His .248 average is not shocking. He hit .249 over 159 games last season, and he batted .243 in 2016 across 147 games. Yes, at his best, Harper is capable of MVP numbers (he did win an MVP), but more often than not, he’s going to be somewhere in the range of .240-.275. That’s okay when he’s delivering all-world OBP numbers like in 2018, when he reached base at a .393 clip. It’s also acceptable when he’s swatting 35+ bombs. This year, Harper has only hit 13 home runs, and is being considered as an option to plug Philly’s hole as the lineup’s leadoff hitter. Leadoff hitters do not make $330 million.

Harper’s also striking out more often than ever. He’s being set down on strikes close to 30% of the time, and he’s also chasing pitches outside the zone four percent more than a year ago, which has led to a drop in his walk rate.  If Harper’s not going to hit for average, he simply cannot afford to walk less and be less disciplined if he plans on remaining elite. Harper can’t blame BABIP either, as his BABIP is a healthy .324, his highest mark since 2017. Unlike Ramirez, Harper has merely been disappointing, rather than unplayable. On the other hand, there is less clarity on a path to being elite again; Harper hasn’t looked like an MVP since 2017, and this might just be who he is now.

IF YOU HAVE HIM: Keep him.

SHOULD YOU TRADE FOR HIM?: Yes, but manage expectations. A power spike is probably coming, especially in the hitter haven he’s playing in, but his batting average is just the reality at this point. Moving forward, Harper should be viewed as a trusty source of power, RBIs and runs, although his RBIs are going to take a hit too if he thrives atop the Phillies’ lineup. Many owners drafted Harper in the first or second round. You should be paying the price of a third or fourth rounder.

Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Cardinals

Goldschmidt, long a pillar of fantasy consistency, is experiencing some alarming outages. He’s long been a lock for a strong batting average, good to great power, and stolen bases, which are especially valuable at a corner infield position usually reserved for mashers. Instead, this year, he’s batted just .256 across 77 games, hit a lukewarm 14 home runs, and, most depressingly, hasn’t stolen a single base and has only attempted one. Goldschmidt’s BABIP is down, but not tremendously so, and his walk and strikeout percentages have remained stable. The stolen base drought was predictable; he’s a 31-year old first baseman whose steals have dropped by half in each of the last two seasons. It’s difficult to know why he’s lagging in all other areas.

The main culprit seems to be a change in the type of contact he’s making. His hard contact percentage is up to 51.7%, a career high, but he’s also seen a spike in ground ball rate. So rather than that hard contact leading to more power, his fly ball rate is identical and his line drive rate has fallen five points,. He’s hitting the ball hard, but it’s on the ground, where it can do the least damage. He has also left Chase Field, which has become less of a hitter’s haven recently, but still is more conducive to power than Busch Stadium.

IF YOU HAVE HIM: Trade him. Power has become a more readily available statistic, and Goldschmidt’s has eroded this season to a point where he’s not a major asset at 1B with his diminished speed.

SHOULD YOU TRADE FOR HIM?: No. He hasn’t been bad enough that the price has dropped significantly enough to justify what he’ll cost. Goldy owners are likely going to want strong starting pitching in return for a premier bat, and right now Goldy isn’t quite as premier as he used to be.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B, Blue Jays

Someone has to say it…Vlad Jr. hasn’t been very good or fun to own. In the 48 games since his much-anticipated call-up, Vlad Jr. has slashed .246/.315/.410 with seven home runs and 20 RBIs. We all know that he projects as an out-of-this-world hitter, but teams potentially trading for him are having to give up a treasure trove of assets, and if he keeps up his current pace those acquiring him will have a tough decision to make in keeper leagues.

Plate discipline isn’t Vlad Jr.’s forte, nor was it his father’s, but MLB pitching hasn’t been so easy for him to adjust to. He’s striking out in nearly 20% of his at-bats, and while he hits the ball very hard, so far nearly 50% of his contact has resulted in ground balls. Without any speed to speak of, and suspect plate discipline, Vlad Jr.’s only route to the fantasy excellence we expected is to start hitting fly balls.

IF YOU HAVE HIM: Trade him if you have a chance at a fantasy title. Vlad Jr. is going to be a star, but he’s only 20 years old. He remains raw, and chances are a team looking toward the future will give you multiple pieces you can use in the 2019 fantasy hunt. Otherwise, hold on to him. He’s going to be great.

SHOULD YOU TRADE FOR HIM?” The inverse is true. If you are trying to build for next year and beyond, absolutely. We’d all like to see him walk more, but ultimately his power numbers will show up if he keeps making hard contact in half his at-bats.