Craig Kimbrel Fantasy Value: Beware Of Overpaying

The MLB draft is Monday, which normally means absolutely nothing to fantasy owners outside of hardcore dynasty leagues. This year though, it means a whole lot, because it will lift the invisible lid on the market for SP Dallas Keuchel, and upper-tier closer Craig Kimbrel, both unfathomably still free agents. Here’s how we should be looking ahead at the prospects of  Craig Kimbrel

**Ownership percentages are courtesy of Yahoo.

Kimbrel’s been elite for his entire career. His worst season as far as ERA is concerned came in 2016 for the Red Sox, when he posted a 3.40 mark. He’s posted a sub-2.00 ERA five times in his nine-year career, and been sub-3.00 eight times. He also has a career K/9 of 14.67, and career strand rate of 84.1%. So with all that out of the way, I’m still a tad wary of viewing a Kimbrel acquisition as a remedy for an ailing fantasy reliever core.

Since joining the Red Sox – and excepting 2017, when he was as elite as any elite closer in MLB history – Kimbrel’s been walking batters at an alarming rate. In 2016 he walked more than five batters per nine, and last season he walked 4.48 per nine. Not coincidentally, he also saw his FIP creep up past 3.00 for the first time in his illustrious career. He’s made a career out of using his strikeout stuff to escape jams, but eventually putting runners on base catches up. His extraordinary strand rate can also be viewed negatively; typically I’ll dock pitchers who posted extremely positive strand rates, as that tends to regress to the mean over time a la BABIP. While we’re here, Kimbrel also boasted a .216 BABIP in 2018, a mark that no doubt contributed to his success despite all the walks. Mix in a cratering ground ball rate, and 2018 Kimbrel’s starting to appear like a very good pitcher who benefited from good circumstances more than you’d think.

So does all that mean Kimbrel won’t be good? Hell no. It just means he’s not a lock to be a Top 5 closer once he signs. Unlike Keuchel, who will give you value regardless of what team he joins, Kimbrel could wind up being a dud in certain formats. For instance, Kimbrel could sign with a team like the Yankees, and not be the closer. That would make him someone who isn’t even a must-own in Roto formats that don’t reward holds. He also could join a team that doesn’t offer many save opportunities, but is trying to make a splashy signing. Yes, Kimbrel’s strikeout rate, superb ERA, and excellent WHIP (despite his walks) make him a benefit to own regardless of situation, but his primary value is saves. For Kimbrel to be elite, especially at this stage of the season, save opportunities must be plentiful.

Kimbrel sitting out the 2019 season is the last thing to consider. Yes, he’s no longer attached to draft pick compensation, and therefore will have many more suitors. There’s still no concrete reporting that he’s lowered his asking price like Keuchel has, so the potential is still there that Kimbrel remains a free agent on principle. He’s 77% owned, so peep your waiver wire, but he’s probably not there. As tantalizing as those strikeout numbers are, resist the urge to trade a whole lot for Kimbrel. Ideally, try to move any sell-high candidates on your roster in a Kimbrel deal, or orchestrate a huge trade in which he’s a supporting piece, rather than the focal point.