Dallas Keuchel Fantasy Value: Why You Should Add Or Trade For Him Immediately

The MLB draft is Monday, which normally means absolutely nothing to fantasy owners outside of hardcore dynasty leagues. This year though, it means a whole lot, because it will lift the invisible lid on the market for SP Dallas Keuchel, and upper-tier closer Craig Kimbrel, both unfathomably still free agents. Here’s how we should be looking ahead at the prospects of Dallas Keuchel.

All ownership percentages are courtesy of Yahoo!

Dallas Keuchel, SP, Free Agent (57% Owned)

First, check your waiver wire. There are many owners who drafted Keuchel and never expected him to actually remain unsigned into June. From the time they drafted him until now, it’s very possible that these owners had to deal with injuries, or saw opportunities on the waiver wire they couldn’t pass up, and simply dropped him. Hard to blame them. This fairly low ownership percentage indicates this happened often, so you need to look at the wire and snap him up if you can.

Now, I’m sure his agent is talking up his status as a former Cy Young winner to prospective teams. That’s less relevant to people like us, and, honestly, I’m not selling you a vision of Keuchel as an earth shattering fantasy signing. He is, however, someone who should be 100% owned in short order. We all love monster strikeout rates, and Keuchel isn’t going to deliver on that front. Keuchel will bring high innings totals, a nice K/BB ratio despite a lack of punchouts, and a helpful ERA.

Keuchel’s 2018 had ups and downs, and was interesting in a lot of ways. He returned to his workhorse ways, logging 204.2 innings, and he posted an 11.3% home run to fly ball rate, down significantly from the previous two seasons to a mark more in line with his Cy Young campaign. His 3.74 ERA wasn’t spectacular, but it was useful, especially in a modern MLB climate in which home runs are spiking along with pitcher ERAs. Keuchel saw his ground ball rate dip significantly from the previous year, and he stranded seven percent fewer baserunners than in 2017, but his FIP and xFIP aligned with his ERA. No one will bounce their grandchildren on their knee and regale them with the tale of Keuchel’s 2018, but there was a lot to like. He also put up useful numbers in a season where he inexplicably lost all effectiveness on his slider, his second-most utilized pitch.

This season, Keuchel’s had nothing but time to fine tune his repertoire, and figure out WTF happened to his slider. He’s also reportedly going to be MLB-ready within a week of signing the dotted line of a contract, so fantasy owners can fire him up right away.

Should Keuchel land with a contender, it wouldn’t surprise me if he was among the league leaders in wins the rest of the way due to his proven ability to pitch deep into games. He would be among my top adds right now if he’s still loitering on the wire, and now is the last chance to strike on a possible buy-low deal. Trade for this man if you can

Raimundo Ortiz