Fantasy Baseball 2019 Trade Advice: 5 Big Names To Buy Low On

We’re at the point in the MLB season where big moves are starting to be made in fantasy leagues. The contenders are seeing themselves as such, the struggling teams are thinking about rebuilds, and the in-betweeners need to make their decisions on which path to take sooner rather than later, lest they be charged a premium during the summer for diminishing return. One of the best ways to inject a whole lot of value is to make a move for a big name who is underperforming, and thus frustrating his owner to the point where he’d trade him for less than he’s worth. I’d never advocate making a bum offer! However, you might be able to snag the following players I still believe in if the person who owns him now has lost faith.

Jose Ramirez, 2B/3B, Indians: I wrote about Ramirez recently here, and things haven’t exactly gotten much better. Ramirez is still hitting below .200, and his power has deserted him through the first 46 games of 2019. He was a Top 5 pick everywhere, and those who drafted him are hurting. I remain a believer though.

First, his BABIP is sitting at .213, which is absurdly unlucky considering he posted a .252 BABIP for the entire 2018 campaign. And Ramirez still belted 30 homers and drove in 105 runs, while scoring 110 runs and swiping 34 bases. This is a five-category contributor here who has overcome bad batted ball luck. He’s in the midst of a dreadful slump right now, but it cannot last forever. Now is the time to strike. Second, Ramirez is still contributing in one area that’s very scarce—stolen bases. Ramirez has stolen 12 bags in 2019, and only been caught twice, meaning he’s helping you even in net-stolen base leagues. Ramirez owners might have decided to sink with the ship if they’re being lowballed for their first round pick, but try making a strong, fair offer and there’s a good chance Ramirez will still outperform what you traded away.

Zack Wheeler, SP, Mets: So the Mets have been a trainwreck lately, and Wheeler looks to have regressed from his stellar 2018 second half. His ERA is hovering alarmingly close to 5.00, and he’s only 3-3 in nine starts across 55.2 innings. Peek under the hood, however, and there’s some good stuff in there.

Wheeler’s been unlucky, posting a .355 BABIP along with a career low 67.2% strand rate. Both of those numbers will correct themselves over time. He’s striking out more hitters than ever, topping 10 per nine for the first time in his career, and he’s got a 2.85 FIP, a full two runs lower than his bloated ERA. I do not like his 3.40 walks per nine rate, but I’ll take it if I can continue to expect those high strikeout totals. It’s also important to note that Wheeler’s ground ball rate has risen six percentage points, and he’s kept the home runs that plagued him two years ago in check. Trade for him now, because once he strings together some double-digit strikeout outings, he’s not going to come cheap.

Corey Seager, SS, Dodgers: Seager, in his return from a lost 2018 season, has been a fantasy non-entity in 46 games and 185 plate appearances. His slash line of .230/.319/.373 with four home runs and 19 RBI has left much to be desired, especially at a position that has become pretty loaded. Personally, I’m banking on Seager’s raw talent, plus 13% spike in his fly ball rate to pay off over time. Seager has come back a different hitter; his line drive rate is down seven percentage points and his ground ball rate has declined by 11 points or so. Seager has sold out for the fly ball revolution, but thus far hasn’t seen the expected adjustment in his home run totals. Per Fangraphs, there’s been close to no change at all in how hard he’s hitting the ball, but his home run to fly ball ratio has been chopped in half from 2017, his last full season. The Seager of 2016 and 2017 showed big power, with HR/FB ratios around 16 or 17 percent. If he reverts to that norm, while hitting 13% more fly balls, home runs are going to start happening in bunches. Remember, you’re paying for what he’s going to do. What’s done is done, but you’ll want to have him for the barrage.

Daniel Murphy, 1B/2B, Rockies: Murphy has been among the biggest busts of all in 2019, battling injury and poor performance when in the lineup. Murphy’s struggles appear to be explainable for two simple reasons, one of which is promising, and the other not so much. The bad news is that Murphy’s strikeout rate has leapt up five points. As a high-contact hitter who doesn’t walk a ton, that’s not a trend that’s enjoyable, especially not for a 34-year-old without much power.

On the plus side, Murphy’s posted an abysmal .179 BABIP, which is doubly shocking considering he plays his home games at Coors Field, typically a hitter’s haven. That’s absolutely going to turn around, especially for a hitter who makes contact 88.5% of the time for his career. A surge is coming soon for Murphy, and in the Coors environment a lot of would-be doubles may become home runs. Anyone trading for Murphy will hope so, as he’s dramatically increased his fly balls much like Seager coming off injury.

Madison Bumgarner, SP, Giants: Reports of Bumgarner’s demise were greatly exaggerated, it seems. MadBum, whose last two seasons were shortened thanks to injuries, has thrown 62 innings for the Giants in 2019, and they’ve been much better than his ugly 4.21 ERA indicate. That ERA, and the Giants’ general awfulness – read, potentially low win total – might cause a Bumgarner owner to try and trade him on the strength of his name. They won’t realize that in fact, that they’re trading away a pitcher who is closer to the ace of 2016 than they think.

Bumgarner’s strikeouts are way up (9.29 K/9), and he’s walking fewer than two batters per nine, a staple of his former workhorse days. His 3.54 FIP comfortably outpaces his inflated ERA, his velocity is up, and he’s paying attention to what’s working. Bumgarner’s curveball has mysteriously nosedived in effectiveness, and he’s responded in kind by reducing his usage dramatically. Bumgarner is definitely someone to target, especially because of his propensity to eat innings while pitchers are increasingly being taken out of games early.