Fantasy Baseball 2019 Trade Advice: Stars And Breakouts To Sell High On
Knowing when to move a big name and capitalizing on a hot start are necessary components of a fantasy championship season. It can be tough to make roster-altering big moves a month into the season, but this time of year is when you can get the highest value on peaking players, as well as maximize the amount of time you have with the players you’re acquiring. The following stars and breakouts are ripe to be traded to fix whatever holes your roster currently has.
Stars to Trade
Javier Baez, 2B/SS/3B, Cubs: Baez was one of the absolute beasts of fantasy baseball last season, and has been able to repeat most of his success in 2019 despite being labeled a likely bust by many, many fantasy experts. So why am I willing to bet against him despite his apparently proven ability to transcend the warning signs? Basically, because the warning signs are too glaring. Baez’s pretty slash line of .314/.352/.650 has been accompanied by 11 home runs, 30 runs and 26 RBI. A stud. But there are still underlying numbers that make me think a steep crash is inevitable.
First, Baez just doesn’t draw walks. That’s fine when you smash home runs, pile up RBI and score a ton. But when luck leaves, it’s pretty hard to put up those counting stats when you can’t get on base. Last season Baez posted a .347 BABIP, which is pretty high; this year, that BABIP is at an even more unsustainable .376, while his strikeout rate has risen three percentage points. He’s striking out more without substantially raising his walk rate, while getting even luckier when he makes contact. BABIP doesn’t last forever in either direction, so the when the correction comes, it will come very hard. Additionally, Baez’s flaws can also be mitigated by his speed. He isn’t running this year, though, which dings his value. Various projections have him swiping somewhere between 10-13 bases, which is in line with his 2016 and 2017 output. If we see his average plummet due to BABIP regression, and he’s not stealing, Baez will drop swiftly from the elite tier and simply be good at three positions. Trading him now can get you either a steadier, comparable stud player, or allow you to fill several roster holes with good to very good players.
Jose Berrios, SP, Twins: Berrios has been one of breakout stars of 2019, living up to his prodigious potential while feasting upon a sad-sack division of lineups. There’s no question that increased matchups with AL Central lineups will continue to help him, but there are red flags dampening my enthusiasm for Berrios’ start to 2019. Berrios’ strand rate is currently sitting at a ridiculous 86%, which cannot hold. I’m really into Berrios walking 1.55 batters per nine, but the increased strike throwing has also spiked his fly ball rate; Berrios’ ground ball rate has dipped all the way to 33%, which will inevitably lead to him surrendering more homers. He’s also posted a 3.77 FIP, which contrasts with his sparkling 2.91 ERA. FIP is a better indicator of future performance, and his xFIP – a stat that I trust less but still monitor – is actually at 4.26. When these numbers are not in sync, there’s usually a correction coming at some point. Maybe Berrios can outperform these peripherals, but it’s safe to say his value is currently at its peak.
Kenley Jansen, RP, Dodgers: Jansen’s reign atop the closer position is over. He’s definitely the Dodgers’ entrenched closer, and he’ll rack up saves all season. But his ugly 4.67 ERA was portended last season when he finished with a 4.03 FIP, and his current 4.06 FIP shows that the high ERA isn’t a total fluke. Jansen’s xFIP (3.43) is more kind, but again, I don’t lean on that stat as much. Jansen’s major issues through 17.1 innings in 2019 have been home runs (2.08 HR/9), and pitching with runners on base. Jansen is stranding just 56.5% of runners, an abysmal number for any pitcher, and definitely one entrusted to slam the door in save situations.
Jansen’s fastball, a pitch worth 8.8 runs above average just last season, has lost its effectiveness. His velocity hasn’t changed, but his fastball is getting hit. Jansen’s best pitch thus far in 2019 has been his slider, but that’s his least-utilized offering. Jansen will continue to be a roto value because of opportunity, but if you are able to flip him for a lesser-name closer and another useful piece, that’s a road I’d recommend traveling down.
Breakouts On Borrowed Time
Paul DeJong, 2B, Cardinals: DeJong’s power is real, but his lofty ranking as of this writing is based on his .336 batting average, a mark that will come down as time wears on. Baseball seasons are marathons, and the .371 BABIP he’s posted this far is like a runner sprinting over the course of his first few miles. DeJong has cut his strikeout rate by close to nine points and is walking slightly more, so I don’t expect him to suddenly become a bad hitter. However, he’s probably home run upside in the high 20s, which is phenomenal when you hit .330, and merely good when you hit .280, which is where DeJong is going to be the rest of the way. Selling him now as a 25-year-old breakout will bring back major value. If other owners don’t bite though, happily keep him. This is not someone who is destined to have a crash landing.
Tim Anderson, SS, White Sox: Anderson’s recent notoriety for bat flipping is the best possible development for his fantasy owners, because his profile’s been raised. Anderson owners are having a blast; he’s currently slashing .339/.365/.529 with six home runs and 12 stolen bases. That’s a roto league dream. This production isn’t entirely shocking, as he did finish 2018 with 20 home runs and 26 stolen bases. It’s just that he hit .240 last year, and posted a fairly ugly .281 OBP for someone with such high-end counting stats. Anderson was a first round pick in 2013, and he has great tools, so no one is surprised to see him play well. It’s just that, well, there’s no way he’s going to keep playing this well.
That batting average is propped up by a ridiculous .389 BABIP that is deeply unsustainable. He’s made a dent in his strikeout rate, dropping it a few points to 19.8%, but his utter lack of plate discipline foreshadows a gnarly batting average crash when his BABIP luck runs out. Any player putting up a career-high average with a walk rate of 3.2% is the human embodiment of a red flag. The pop and steals will be there, and will be appealing especially in roto formats regardless of his batting average and OBP/OPS. But if you trade him right this second, you’re selling a breakout superstar, not a nice counting stats boost.
Christian Walker, 1B, Diamondbacks: Walker, unlike the previous two entries in this section, is not someone whose floor allows you to bide time and/or wait for the perfect offer. While he’s undoubtedly been one of the most fun players to own in 2019, reality will be a bitter pill when he turns back into a pumpkin. Walker is currently hitting .306, and has swatted seven home runs, accumulated 16 RBI, scored 20 runs and even stolen three bases. There’s a high likelihood all of this is gonna go south.
I’ll note up front that he has taken the promising steps of significantly lowering his strikeout rate and simultaneously doubling his walk rate. If you disagree with my outlook for Walker, that right there is your best basis for believing in this breakout. I’m less enthused, mostly because he is rocking an insane .405 BABIP at the moment. Walker hasn’t ever spent an extended period of time in the big leagues, but he’s never hit better than .250 in his brief stints, and has mostly hovered below the Mendoza line. He’s shown legitimate power in the minors since 2015, so that could continue to be a plus, but he was mostly around the .260s in the batting average category in Triple-A, so there’s no reason to view him as a .300 hitter vs. MLB pitching. He has also been strikeout prone in Double-A and Triple-A, and he whiffed 41.5 of the time in 2018 in 37 MLB games. Walker’s going to become a one-trick pony soon, and without any track record at the big league level, other fantasy owners aren’t going to trust him once he hits a slump. He could easily morph into the terrible version of Jay Bruce, and while you can get value now, it’s conceivable that he’ll be on your waiver wire in a month.
Martin Perez, SP/RP, Twins: Perez, 28, is having a moment in Minnesota. He’s currently 5-0 with a 2.83 ERA and 3.12 FIP. It’s been a long journey for Perez to fantasy relevance, and I honestly can’t believe he still gets MLB work with his track record, but here we are. And I’m going to tell you, despite my favorite stat backing up his ERA, I’m all the way out on this. FIP’s less reliable sibling xFIP agrees with me, as Perez’s sits at 4.43, much more in line with his past.
While Perez has increased his strikeouts a bunch, he’s still walking 3.5 batters per nine, and his ground ball rate has sunk from 50.8% last year to 39.5% in 2019. More fly balls is bad for Perez, who has managed to post a 4.7% home run to fly ball rate. For his career, his HR/FB ratio is 11.3%, and it ballooned to 18.2% last season for him. There’s definitely something to pitchers leaving Texas and improving, but we are talking about a guy who hasn’t been below a 4.38 ERA since 2014. Five whole years ago. Perez’s WHIP is still subpar (1.26), and his durability remains a question. Perhaps he’s evolved into an okay streaming SP, but rely on him for more than that at your own great peril.