Fantasy Baseball 2019 Waiver Wire Advice: King Felix Hernandez Belongs Back On Fantasy Teams
Felix Hernandez has been objectively horrendous for two seasons, and showed signs of decline three years ago, so it feels weird to be writing about why you should add him to your fantasy team. Especially after writing this about Homer Bailey. I’m hangin’ in there with Homer by the way.
Hernandez has been in our lives for a while. King Felix debuted in 2005, and so he’s in his 15th MLB season. That’s another way of saying there’s a ton of wear and tear on his arm. However, despite that mileage, it’s worth remembering that Hernandez isn’t old. He pitched like an aging ace entering his twilight, but he’s actually only 33 years old. To me, that means there’s room for a final act in which he reinvents himself and returns to fantasy relevance. Quickly peeking at what he’s done so far, that reinvention is underway.
Hernandez has made five starts in 2019, going 1-2 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.22 WHIP across 25.1 innings. These numbers are fine. They’re also leaps and bounds better than what he’s done since 2017, and for a pitcher of his pedigree, that quantum leap forward is worth paying attention to. He’s actually slightly underperforming his FIP (3.72), and he’s kept his decent strikeout rate (7.46 per nine) intact while dramatically reducing his walks by more than two batters per nine. Hernandez has also raised his groundball rate by six points, all while dealing with a .321 BABIP, the highest it’s been since 2007. Long story short, he’s pitching pretty well. Here’s how he appears to be doing it.
First, he’s getting ahead. His first pitch strike rate of 74.1% is by far the best of his long career, and it’s indicative of a former strikeout beast becoming more willing to allow contact to avoid free passes. Second, he’s turned to his curveball more than he has in the past, and subsequently relied less on his changeup.
That’s a smart move by Hernandez, because his changeup was pretty much a neutral pitch last season, while his underutilized curve was worth 7.2 runs above average. Recognizing this, he’s dropped that hammer more, and it’s been worth 3.1 runs, whereas his changeup has become a liability (-1.8 runs).
Hernandez’s days as an ace are long gone, and his new mini-renaissance isn’t the type I typically hype up. He’s not showing a new spike in strikeouts, which I lean toward, and his WHIP is a tad high for what I aim for. With that said though, I’m in love with his low walk rate, and I’m encouraged by his recognition of what’s working, and quickly adapting to maximize the remaining fuel in his tank. Moving forward, with this approach, I can see Hernandez settling into a mid-rotation role for fantasy teams in which he piles up innings, quality starts, and posts a win total in the low teens. Pitching’s become scarce, so that level of production has a place on any team.