Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice: Keep Or Trade These 5 Star Players

The following is a list of star players vastly underperforming their draft position. If you’re struggling with what to do with these slumping stars, here’s some help.

Position eligibility is based on Yahoo!.

Jose Ramirez, 2B/3B, Indians: Ramirez is off to one of the most baffling starts I can ever remember a star player having. His slash line of .152/.236/.288 is unthinkable for a player who was one home run shy of the 40/30 club last season, and who was the consensus No. 3 pick in drafts. Through 21 games that hideous slash line has come with a single home run, five RBI, and five stolen bases, which are the lone positive about his 2019 so far. Ramirez did enter the season with a knee injury that looked severe at first, but turned out to be something he could manage. Maybe not?

His plate discipline has waned a bit (9.0%, down from 14.5% last year), and his strikeout rate is up. Neither of those numbers, despite trending in the wrong directions, are horrible though. It’s Ramirez’s waning power that’s a major concern. His 29-home run outburst in 2017 was surprising, and his 39-homer campaign last year was shocking. He seemed to have suddenly established himself as a premier power hitter, despite having never hit more than five homers at any level of the minors. Ramirez’s brutal batting average can largely be attributed to a .167 BABIP; it’s worth noting how unlucky that BABIP is, as he was saddled with a .252 BABIP last season. Ramirez’s batted ball data shows upticks in his hard hit percentage AND his soft contact percentage, with a 9.8% drop in medium contact. Ramirez’s power outage doesn’t look all that shocking when you compare his numbers to his first four MLB seasons or his minor league track record. In fact, the 2017-2018 power spike looks like the outlier. I don’t expect Ramirez to suddenly be a bad player, but a season in which he hits in the high-.280s with 20ish-home run power, rather than flirting with 40 bombs, seems well within the realm of possibility.

Ramirez’s stolen base ability means you should still hang on to him, but if other owners are willing to approach full price, you’d be crazy to not at least field offers and see what he can fetch.

Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Cubs: It’s definitely not fun to be in the Anthony Rizzo business right now, but you’ll want to hold on to him. Rizzo is a career .237 hitter in March and April, although the dire starts do seem to be getting worse. Last season he hit .149 with a single home run in the first month, so this year’s .197/.367/.380 slash line isn’t even rock bottom; after all, it does include three home runs, and there’s still eight days left in the month. The sheer ineptitude of his start last season did impact his final numbers for the first time in his career, but Rizzo still remains one of the most bankable players in fantasy in terms of end-of-year numbers.

He delivered exactly 32 home runs in three of the last five seasons, and 31 in 2015. Rizzo has notched 100+ RBI in each of the last four seasons, and he’s even stolen five or more bases in five of the last six years. By avoiding a one-homer month already, Rizzo is likely to get hot any day now and deliver 30 homers and 100 RBI again in 2019. Just close your eyes, and don’t look until the season has ended.

Joey Votto, 1B, Reds: Votto, unlike Rizzo, is more concerning. For starters, he’s 35 years old, six years older than Rizzo. Next, while he’s consistently hit for power over the last three years, he’s had long power outages in the past. Last year he mustered just 12 home runs in 145 games; he managed just six in an injury-shortened 2016 season (62 games) and 14 homers over 111 games in 2012. Votto is rarely a premier slugger, but you draft him high regardless based on his high batting average and insane OBP skills, bolstered by his legendary plate discipline. The floor for Votto used to be an average in the .300s and an OBP well into the .400s. As he’s aged, that seems to no longer be the case.

Last season Votto hit .284 with a .417 OBP. While those are fine numbers for most, they represented big declines for Votto, especially with basically zero power attached. More alarmingly, he saw his strikeout percentage jump to 16.2%, up from 11.1% in 2017. This year, he’s striking out 27% of the time, while his walks have dipped all the way to 9.5%. These are continuations of the trends that showed up in last year’s tremendously disappointing campaign, and it’s starting to resemble real decline rather than a fluke.

As far as trade value goes, Votto’s definitely not going to fetch a return comparable to other players at his ADP. Still, if you can get a decent return for him, I’d advise it. This is an aging corner infielder who is not going to provide power, the single most important characteristic of corner infielders.

Yasiel Puig, OF, Reds: Puig is all kinds of messed up right now. While the move to Cincinnati figured to be a boost to his career – less distractions, more playing time and such – it seems Puig has been a much worse player post-trade. He’s slashing a disgusting .164/.186/.299 with only two home runs, two stolen bases and nine RBI.

Puig has long been annoying to own. His streakiness can bring great joy or debilitating frustration, and while he typically is good for 20+ home runs and around 15 stolen bases, the journey there is usually choppy. Now, it’s looking like a journey doomed to fail.

Part of Puig’s horrific start can be attributed to a .196 BABIP. That kind of bad luck isn’t going to last, especially when we’re discussing a hitter with Puig’s talent. The plummeting contact numbers are the big concerns regarding this slow start. Puig is perilously close to a 30% strikeout rate, and he’s walking 2.8% of the time, which is just pathetic. He’s become even more aggressive at the plate, swinging at 60.7% of the pitches he’s faced, including a 12% spike in swings outside the strike zone. That’s a surefire way to increase your strikeout rate, and decimate your OBP.

Puig has also become a fly ball-dominant hitter, but it isn’t translating to home runs. I figured this was a fluke, but his hard contact rate has dipped seven points, while his medium contact rate has jumped about an equal amount. Puig is lifting the ball more than ever, but he’s not hitting the ball as hard. That probably has to do with seeing fewer pitches and swinging his way into unfavorable counts.

Matt Carpenter, 1B/2B/3B, Cardinals: Carpenter’s fall from last season is a bit inexplicable. The OBP monster is currently hitting just .213, with a weak .312 OBP. His power has been largely absent too; Carpenter’s hit only three home runs through St. Louis’ first 21 games after socking a career-high 36 bombs last season. My advice? Don’t panic.

Carpenter’s hard hit percentage is down, but it has become medium contact, rather than soft. He’s still hitting the ball with authority, and the below-average .246 BABIP he’s posted thus far explains a lot. Carpenter’s walks are down slightly, but it’s nothing to be concerned with, and his strikeouts are actually slightly lower than a season ago. Finally, Carpenter did this last season too, starting off hitting .177 in March/April before exploding for basically the rest of the season.