Fantasy Baseball 2019: Deep Sleepers Outside Top 300 ADP

The only thing more satisfying than nailing it after targeting and drafting a sleeper, is nailing it after targeting and drafting a deep sleeper. These players below are buried on preseason ranking lists, all of them falling outside the Top 300 ADP. I believe each of these guys has a chance to be impactful fantasy assets, so if you see them available late, don’t hesitate. Grab the upside.

Jose Martinez, 1B/OF, Cardinals (ADP: 350): Martinez is a man adrift. Everyone loves his talent at the plate, but his shaky defense, and an underrated roster around him, have squeezed him out of valuable playing time. Martinez seemed like a possible breakout candidate until St. Louis traded for superstar first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, pushing Martinez to the bench. Now, his path to playing time will have to go through the outfield, where Harrison Bader seems to hold more favor with decision makers, and Dexter Fowler is far superior defensively. Still, Martinez’s ability is undeniable.

Martinez slashed .305/.364/.457 with 17 home runs over the course of 590 plate appearances. He’s never hit for a ton of power, but his 80.3 percent contact rate in 2018, and sub-20 percent strikeout rate, make for an intriguing source of RBI if given the opportunity. Matt Carpenter and Goldschmidt are on-base monsters near the top of the lineup, and Rosterresource.com currently projects Fowler to hit fifth regularly. Fowler was a big ticket addition two years ago, but he’s been a massive disappointment, and is extremely unpopular with fans. It’s no stretch to envision Martinez overtaking him and playing in right field regularly, even if he’s a minus glove. St. Louis could also decide to move Martinez to an AL contender at some point, freeing him up soak up everyday at bats as a DH. Right now, this is tremendous value for a talent like Martinez, and at this point in drafts it’s impossible for him to be a drain on your team.

Greg Bird, 1B, Yankees (ADP: 362): Few players were as big a bust as Greg Bird last season, appearing in just 82 games and posting a futile .199 batting average. He was unusable for fantasy owners, and eventually lost his job to 28-year-old Luke Voit, who had just 124 at-bats entering the year. So where’s the upside?

Well, the Yankees didn’t add anyone this offseason besides DJ LeMahieu, who is only a first baseman in theory, and are entering 2019 with Voit as the presumed starter. Voit was a hell of a midseason add last year, but he’s never come close to playing a full season in the majors as a regular. Bird is still a player the Yankees have been extremely high on, with major power potential in lefty-friendly Yankee Stadium. At worst, Bird is probably going to start the season as the better half of a platoon at first with Voit, with the opportunity to carve out an everyday role if he lives up to his promise.

Vince Velasquez, SP, Phillies (ADP: 405): Velasquez posted some ugly numbers in 2018, such as a 4.85 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and 16 home runs surrendered in 146.2 innings. You’d think he outright sucked, but the truth is more complex. Velasquez was more inconsistent than bad last season; his numbers were tanked by three starts in which he surrendered six or more runs, and by an inability to pitch deep in games. Velasquez only lasted six innings or more in 12 of his 30 starts, and maxed out at seven innings, once. Still just 26 years old, Velasquez has plenty of time to mature and learn to pitch longer, and there are encouraging signs of him growing. He posted a 3.62 walk-per-nine, the lowest of his MLB career, and his FIP of 3.75 was more than a full run lower than his ERA. He also significantly improved on his home run rate, so even though 16 dingers is a bit rough, he’s getting better. But what I like most about Velasquez is his ability to miss bats. He has posted an 8.5 strikeout per nine ratio or better in each of his MLB seasons, and he was better than 10 per nine in 2016, when he threw 131 innings. The ugly ERA is scaring away potential owners, but buried under there is a possible Top 30 starter with a few breaks and good run support.

Joe Jimenez, RP, Tigers (ADP: 467): Jimenez is probably my favorite deep sleeper of 2019. In my opinion, spending your last pick on him is netting yourself a solid closer. Detroit will enter the season with Shane Greene – he of the 5.12 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 1.71 home run per nine – as their ninth inning man. Detroit doesn’t figure to win a whole lot of games, but even awful teams give their closer a chance to save 30-plus games. If Greene pitches like he did last year, he’ll blow some opportunities early and roll out a red carpet for the superior Jimenez.

Jimenez threw a career-high 62.2 innings last season, pitching to a deceiving 4.31 ERA. His FIP (2.90) was much lower, and his 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings are tantalizing as a late-inning arm. His walks aren’t spectacular, but he’s shown he can keep the ball in the park and miss bats. That’s what you want from a closer, and Shane Greene has proven repeatedly he can’t really do those things.

Willie Calhoun, OF, Rangers (ADP: NA): Like Jose Martinez, Calhoun doesn’t have a clear path to regular playing time. The outfield is occupied by Nomar Mazzara, Joey Gallo and Delino DeShields Jr., and second base, where he played in the minors, is manned by Rougned Odor. Calhoun’s predicament was earned too; he largely failed in his first major MLB exposure, slashing .222/.269/.333 with just two home runs in a 35-game stint.

Don’t freak out. Calhoun isn’t your typical prospect carved from stone, but he has a long track record of raking in the minors, and it’s way too early to quit on a guy this talented. He can literally be taken with your last pick right now, and this is a player who smacked 27 homers in Double-A, then 31 homers in Triple-A in 2017. He struck out in 22 percent of his at bats last year, but that is atypical for Calhoun, who was usually around 10 percent throughout his rise through the minors. Given a full season, we’ll see the true Calhoun, who will hit for average and good power. He doesn’t even have an ADP right now, so spend your final pick on a guy with way more upside than should be available this late in the draft.