Fantasy Baseball 2019: Sleepers Outside the Top 200 ADP

Nothing is more rewarding in fantasy than drafting someone late and having that player be a key part of a great team. Getting great value on any player is awesome, but the joy is doubled when said player was taken really, really late. That’s why I will focus on players outside the Top 200 here. Feel free to jump on these players as your draft wears on, and share my joy during the season when they are killing it for you.

Marco Gonzales, SP, Mariners (ADP: 240): Gonzales may not have the upside to transform into a Top 15-20 type pitcher, but he is the kind of consistent force every fantasy rotation needs to ride out rough times from higher-upside (and higher-variance) players. Last season Gonzales pitched to a mediocre 4.00 ERA, but looking under the hood leads to a pleasing outlook. Gonzales posted a 3.43 FIP in 2018, and alternating between phenomenal months and brutal months before fading in the final stretch. Sure, a steep drop-off at the end of the season isn’t a positive for a starting pitcher, but it was Gonzales’ first full season as a starter; he hurled 166.2 innings last season, jumping up from a previous career-high of 40. Now that he’s got his sea legs, you can expect him to be equipped to handle the load of a 200-inning campaign. The reason I like Gonzales so much is his aversion to free passes. He walked fewer than two batters per nine last season, and his walk rate has dropped precipitously in each of his MLB campaigns. That sparkling control is supplemented by a respectable 7.83 strikeout per nine rate.

His most effective pitch last season, by far, was his curveball, which was worth 4.6 runs per Fangraphs. He also threw above-average fastballs and cutters, but those numbers were only slightly positive. Having a hammer like that means there’s the potential for rising strikeout numbers, which can vault him up the rankings if he can generate more swings and misses without walking more batters. He has the look of a viable No. 3 starter in fantasy, and it’s rare to safely expect that from a player drafted outside the Top 200.

Max Kepler, OF, Twins (ADP: 273): Kepler just inked a new five-year, $35 million deal to remain in Minnesota, a telling sign that the Twins think a breakout is coming. Kepler has shown consistent production in the power department, socking 17, 18 and 20 home runs over the last three seasons, respectively. Those numbers aren’t anything to write home about, but there were subtle things about his 2018 campaign that were easy to overlook that tell me the future is bright. First, was Kepler’s .236 BABIP. While he posted an unimpressive .244 batting average in 2018, he was saddled with terrible luck. That bad luck hid a five-point decrease in his strikeout rate (15.7 percent), and a nearly identical leap forward with his walk rate (11.6 percent). Kepler saw similar, positive changes in his fly ball rate (6.7 percent increase) and ground ball rate (five-point decrease) while making hard contact more often. He was, simply put, the best hitter he’s ever been and it was all masked by horrific batted ball luck. Be grateful, because he’s now a potential Top 30 outfielder going 66th off the board at his position.

Francisco Cervelli, C, Pirates (ADP: 283): There’s absolutely nothing exciting about drafting Cervelli at any point in the draft, but the truth of the matter is that catcher sucks, and Cervelli delivers bankable production at a very cheap draft price. Cervelli is slated to hit in the middle of Pittsburgh’s lineup, after slashing a respectable .259/.378/.431 with 12 home runs and 59 RBI over 104 games. Had Cervelli been a bit healthier, it’s not hard to imagine him hitting about 15-17 home runs, which would have put him in the bottom half of the Top 10 last year. Hitting in the middle of the lineup will give a healthy Cervelli a chance at useful RBI numbers for the position, and there aren’t any up-and-coming youngsters nipping at his heels to steal at bats. There’s no need to get cute and try to dominate the position by reaching for the likes of J.T. Realmuto; if you accidentally wait too long trying to snap up Yasmani Grandal or Buster Posey just wait until the very end and scoop up Cervelli super late.

Jeff McNeil, 2B, Mets (ADP: 306): McNeil is destined to be unheralded and useful. Rumor has it that the Mets are planning to make use of him in the outfield as well as second base, making him a dual-position eligible player who has the chops to hit better than .300. He doesn’t profile as much of a power hitter, which certainly limits his upside, but he rampaged in Triple-A last year, batting .368 in 31 games there with a not-too-shabby 14 dingers. Once called up, McNeil did not miss a beat, slashing .329/.381/.471 in the Mets’ final 63 games. He did enough that the Mets are not only entrusting him with an everyday position, they are working out ways to get him at bats at multiple positions. Lastly, McNeil stole seven bases in that 63-game MLB cameo; at the lower levels of the minors he did show stolen base potential, swiping 16 at High-A in 2015. Don’t count on him to pad that stat, but in the three true outcome era, any contribution to the steals category is welcome and valuable.

Brad Boxberger, RP, Royals (ADP: 290): Boxberger landed in the exact perfect spot to be fantasy relevant. The Royals are likely going to be an absolutely terrible baseball team in 2019, but even those clubs afford their closers the opportunity to save upward of 30 games. Boxberger himself is shaky; he has vicious stuff and will pile up strikeouts – he whiffed almost 12 per nine in 2018 – but he has control issues. Last season’s 13.6 percent walk rate was abominable, and will cause him to not be a closer very long if he repeats that. He has kept it in check before, however, notably in 2015 when he saved 41 games for the Rays. In Kansas City he’ll have to really be bad to lose his gig, as the competition behind him is Wily Peralta, who walked more than six batters per nine last year, and Jake Diekman, who posted a 4.73 ERA last year.