Fantasy Baseball 2019: 5 Great Early Values Based on ADP
The time to start preparing in earnest for your fantasy baseball drafts is here! I’m all about identifying the undervalued, targeting the undervalued, and winning. So let’s start with some players who jumped out at me as being underdrafted; these aren’t mind-boggling bargains, but they are the type of mid-draft gets that can wind up winning your league for you.
ADP data is courtesy of FantasyPros.com.
Michael Conforto, OF, Mets (ADP: 100): Conforto is the main reason the Mets’ brass don’t feel like they need to spend big bucks on Bryce Harper or Manny Machado. The Mets have chosen to bolster their bullpen this year, fill in some holes with cheap veterans, and take on 2B Robinson Cano’s salary (a chunk of it at least) as their “big” offseason addition to the offense. Cano remains a solid hitter at age 35, but his days of being a team-changing stick in the middle of the order are past. With OF Yoenis Cespedes likely to miss the majority of 2019 with heel injuries, something is telling the Mets that they’ll be okay. The only logical answer to that is Conforto.
Conforto was awesome in 2017, exploding for 27 home runs and slashing .279/.384/.555 in just 109 games before suffering a season-ending injury that plagued him into the early part of 2018. His follow-up year was a mixed bag; Conforto smacked a career-high 28 home runs, but it took him 153 games to get there, and he was brutally inconsistent until September. He found his old form as the season wound down, however, belting nine home runs after the calendar turned to September 1, driving in nearly 30 runs and hitting .286. This was the star the Mets felt they had unearthed in 2017, and upon whom they’re hanging their 2019 season on. At his best, Conforto is a superstar. He has had stretches in which he was tough to differentiate from his fellow New York star outfielder Aaron Judge, who is being drafted inside the Top 20. Health is a concern for any Met, but consider the names going directly ahead of him and behind him at the position. Wil Myers is being picked directly in front of him, while A.J. Pollock and Joey Gallo are going off right after him. Two of those players have far lengthier injury records, and Joey Gallo is a one-trick pony who is borderline unplayable for weeks at a time in points formats. It’s rare to find someone who can hit the highs of a Top 20 player at this point in the draft, so don’t get cute and pass on this potential.
Max Muncy, 1B/2B/3B, Dodgers (ADP: 113): People who were fortunate enough to pick up Muncy last season probably did well. He clobbered 35 home runs, posted a .391 OBP and slugged his way to a .973 OPS. Despite this, he’s the 14th first baseman, 14th second baseman, and 16th third baseman off the board and being drafted 109th overall. That’s not a lot of respect for a guy who performed as an elite power hitter, is eligible to play three positions, and will hit in the middle of what projects to be a top National League lineup. If you’re waiting for me to explain why he isn’t more sought after, don’t hold your breath. I don’t get it.
Maybe some are skeptical of Muncy breaking out at age 28, or that he flashed this kind of power way back in Single-A in the Athletics’ organization, and hadn’t reached double-digit homers again until 2017 in Triple-A. There could definitely be some regression in Muncy’s home runs, but I’m honestly more interested in his on-base skills. Even if Muncy drops to the high-20s in the home run category, he’s going to post elite OBP/OPS numbers at all three of the positions he’s eligible thanks to his 16.4 percent walk rate. Essentially, I’m looking at an OPS stud with 30+ home run potential, as well as 100-RBI opportunity thanks to being surrounded with good hitters. Lastly, despite his gaudy strikeout rate last season (27.2 percent), he managed a respectable .263 batting average without an absurd BABIP (.299) leading me to believe he’ll crash through the floor. Don’t be afraid to believe the hype.
Yasmani Grandal, C, Brewers (ADP: 137): Grandal signed with Milwaukee this year on a weird, one-year, $18.25 million contract. That’s good work if you can get it, but Grandal was a plus bat at an extraordinarily weak position and he’s deserving of more. Grandal has a bad rap because he can be streaky, and he’s been benched in multiple postseasons. I get it, he’s no Johnny Bench. But fantasy owners should not care about what happened in October, they need to care about what they can expect from him over the course of a 162-game regular season. By that standard, he’s remarkably similar to J.T. Realmuto, the top catcher off the board and a player going 82 spots ahead of him.
Last season Grandal slashed .241/.349./.466 with 24 home runs and 68 RBI, numbers that aren’t spectacular, but are very useful at a terrible position. Grandal hit three more home runs than Realmuto, was within six RBI, within 10 points of Realmuto’s OPS, and walked twice as much. That production is strikingly similar, and makes Grandal SIGNIFICANTLY more valuable in terms of cost, since the dearth of production at catcher inflates the price of Realmuto.
Nick Pivetta, SP, Phillies (ADP: 171): Pitching is where value is REALLY valuable. Finding elite starting pitching late, allowing you to pay for elite hitting production that sets you apart is the straightest path to victory. And right now I’m not seeing more of a discrepancy between the consensus and my own valuation than on Nick Pivetta. Last season he posted an ugly 4.77 ERA in 164 innings, one year after putting up a hideous 6.01 ERA over the course of 133 innings. That is 297 innings worth of bad output. I’m looking past all that.
Three things stood out about Pivetta’s 2018 season—his FIP (3.78), his strikeout rate (10.32 per nine) and his walk rate (2.8 per nine), which isn’t spectacular, but very solid in comparison to how many strikeouts he’s generating. Those numbers at age 26 look like a pitcher about to break out, especially when he has drastically underperformed his FIP in back-to-back campaigns. On top of the promising outlook, the Phillies have made upgrades to the lineup, adding Andrew McCutchen, Jean Segura and J.T. Realmuto to provide major run support to the pitching staff. Assuming health, Pivetta should win around 15 games on a team like this that has the look of a World Series contender, and has the upside to finish with Top 20 stats. Your league won’t see it coming.
Kirby Yates, RP, Padres (ADP: 128): Any relief pitcher who accumulates saves has value in fantasy, but saves aren’t the end-all, be-all. Having multiple Fernando Rodneys can sink you in multiple categories like WHIP and ERA, while also creating risk that the RPs you’re depending on get demoted, leaving you to rot. Yates, while closing for a team that you might not expect to offer a ton of save opportunities, is a tremendous value right now.
To start, Yates isn’t just a nominal closer. He’s a good pitcher, as evidenced by his 2.13 ERA, consistent 2.54 FIP, and his strikeout-per-nine rate that flirted with 13. He was able to harness his stuff as well, posting a sparkling 0.92 WHIP. Yates notched just 12 saves, but he wasn’t the closer for most of the season; when he assumed the role, he slammed the door in all but one of his chances. Next, Yates isn’t immediately threatened. Craig Stammen is next in line, and while he’s a fine reliever who had a very nice 2018, he’s a 34-year-old middle reliever. They aren’t going to be eager to cast Yates aside to install Stammen, or fellow setup man Matt Strahm. Unless Yates gets tossed into trade talks around the deadline, he’s one of the safest closers in MLB. Lastly, the Padres aren’t great, but they also aren’t expected to be a trash fire like the Marlins or Tigers. This roster is populated with honest-to-God big leaguers, and they’ll be fairly competitive. A full season of Yates could yield around 35-40 saves with positive contributions across all pitching categories. You can’t ask much more from players drafted after Pick No. 120.