Fantasy Baseball 2019: 5 Potential Busts With Big Names

Every season, several big names shock us with down years. While many are surprised when these stars go dormant, there are often signs of their impending doom. This season, these guys are showing some signs that despite their lofty status, they might not deliver on their current ADP.

All ADP date is courtesy of FantasyPros.com.

Clayton Kershaw, SP, Dodgers (ADP: 30): Kershaw has been a stalwart for years atop the pitching rankings, so it really pains me to include him in a list of potential big-name busts. Sadly, however, we have to acknowledge that injuries are piling up for Kershaw, and it’s begun to affect his previously otherworldly production. Kershaw’s failed to throw 200 innings in four of the last five seasons, and his strikeouts per nine dropped to 8.59 in 2018, after resting consistently above 10 the two prior seasons. He’s missed time with back issues the past two years, and if that isn’t scary enough, he’s already struggling to pitch in Spring Training, delaying his spring debut because of dreaded shoulder issues. At age 30, these are scary times.

Now, don’t confuse this for me saying Kershaw is going to drop off a cliff. Even a bit diminished, Kershaw remains elite when he takes the mound. His ERA was 2.73, which is high for him, but still would rank 7th in MLB among qualified starters if he had recorded two more outs and actually qualified. His walks per nine have been rising, but they are still elite. This is still an excellent pitcher, but at this point you must build some missed time into your expectations, and that’s not what you want to worry about when you are making a pick in the first three rounds. With pitchers like Luis Severino and Noah Syndergaard being drafted after him, Kershaw is no longer providing the separation from the pack necessary to draft him this high. Lay off in Round 3, hope other owners are having the same concerns you are, and see if you’re lucky enough to have him drop another round or two.

Kris Bryant, 3B/OF, Cubs (ADP: 31): Bryant is an excellent ball player, and he could be elite this year. He was a fairly massive disappointment in 2018 though, and there wasn’t any glaring sign of bad luck to point to for it. Bryant slashed .272/.374/.460 with 13 home runs (WTF?!) and 52 RBI. Bryant hasn’t necessarily been considered an elite power hitter, but you’d expect him to be around 28-35 homers. Bryant battled injury and only played in 102 games, but a five-point drop in home run to fly ball ratio, without a drop in BABIP, is frightening. In fact, Bryant posted a .342 BABIP last season, which makes his lower-than-usual batting average more concerning. He averaged a home run every 21 plate appearances over his first three MLB campaigns, but homered just once every 35 plate appearances last season. It’s worrisome.

It's very possible that it was simply a down year for Bryant, and that he’ll be just fine in 2019. I haven’t lost faith in him. But he’s currently being drafted ahead of some big names at both positions he’s eligible for; at third base he’s ahead of Matt Carpenter by 30 spots, and at OF Whit Merrifield, Juan Soto, Khris Davis and Starling Marte can all be had after Bryant.

Craig Kimbrel, RP, Free Agent (ADP: 61): Kimbrel’s biggest issue is obvious—the man doesn’t have a team. If the reports are to be believed, he is seeking $100 million for six years, an absurd request based on the current market. It’s unlikely he approaches those figures, and he’s indicated he might be willing to miss regular season games until his demands are met. That leaves you spending a Top 6 pick on someone you’ll have to slot into an NA spot, or even worse, taking up a valuable bench spot. But there’s more to Kimbrel’s bust potential than just not having a team. His gaudy save numbers and reputation precede him, but there’s a reason teams aren’t caving to him like they’ve done with Manny Machado, and are about to do with Bryce Harper.

Kimbrel, 30, was wild last season. He walked about 4.5 batters per nine, and it’s the second time in three years he’s walked at least that many. His 2.74 ERA overperformed compared to his 3.13 FIP; that FIP isn’t particularly alarming, but it’s nothing teams are eager to shell out nearly $17 million a year for, especially with an alarming trend of putting men on base. Kimbrel’s sparkling 2017 campaign also masked sub-optimal strand rates of 70.9 percent in 2016 and 83 percent in 2018. These aren’t bad numbers, but they are warning signs of decline. His velocity also dipped slightly, and while he clearly still has elite fastball velocity, the value of the pitch per Fangraphs was in line with 2016 rather than 2017. It seems like Kimbrel’s 2017 was a bit of an outlier for what he is now, and you’re still paying a 2017 price. Throw in the fact that we don’t know when he’ll be on a team, and that he’d previously been closing for the Red Sox, who offer tons of save opportunities, and Kimbrel becomes a terrible value at this ADP.

Dee Gordon, 2B/OF, Mariners (ADP: 100): Dee Gordon is a player I will be avoiding this year. The reason to draft Gordon is stolen bases, except, he’s no guarantee to offer you the boost in that category to justify the catastrophic effect he has on other categories. Gordon stole exactly 30 bases in 2016 and 2018, a fine total to be sure, but not enough to make him worth going in the Top 100 on its face. Of course, Gordon is capable of much more. In the past, he’s registered stolen base totals of 64 (2014), 58 (2015), 60 (2017), but the flaws in his game are the reason those numbers aren’t a floor.

Last season Gordon posted an abysmal .288 OBP, and a horrific .637 OPS. He’s got no power – his whopping four home runs last season tied a career-high – and he doesn’t put himself in the best position to utilize his speed because he refuses to take pitches. Gordon posted a 1.5 percent walk rate in 2018, so he was unable to supplement his mediocre .268 batting average in any way. In the past, Gordon has been much better in the batting average category, likely because his speed enables him to post higher-than-normal BABIP figures. Still, his utter lack of walks means he needs very high BABIP numbers to be useful anywhere but steals, and even with a solid BABIP last season (.304) he was a sinkhole. This ADP is way too high. If you want a player who has high steals upside and burns you everywhere else, Royals OF Billy Hamilton is going 66 picks later.

Carlos Martinez, SP, Cardinals (ADP: 134): Martinez is the 34th starting pitcher off the board, but he could potentially damage your team even at this reasonable ADP. He’s never been a marksman, but Martinez’s 4.55 walks per nine will be disastrous unless he gets them under control. The pleasant 3.11 ERA he posted was a mirage, as he registered a 3.53 FIP and even scarier 4.42 xFIP; typically, I prefer FIP as it’s more based in actual outcomes, but this xFIP falls more in line with a pitcher who is walking this many batters. In addition to the career-high walk rate, he saw his strikeout rate dip too, and he dealt with injuries. An abnormally low home run to fly ball ratio (4.9 percent) saved him.

Martinez’s injuries limited him to just 118.2 innings in 2018, and he’s already in question for Opening Day this year because of shoulder troubles. He was shut down and has recently received platelet-rich plasma injections. J.A. Happ, Chris Archer and Dallas Kuechel are just some of the names immediately after Martinez in consensus ADP, and they are far safer bets, while also possessing similar upside.