MLB Hot Stove 2018: Beware Buying High on Wade Davis

 The MLB hot stove season has simmered very slowly this year, with most major free agents still hanging around waiting for offers, or letting teams that have made offers twist in the wind. Not closer Wade Davis though.

Davis, one of the most prolific closers of the past half-decade, received an unexpected three-year, $52 million offer from the Rockies and leapt on it. It’s expensive to snag big-name relievers these days, and even pricier if you’re luring them to Coors Field. There’s no doubt that Colorado needed to shore up their bullpen – last season their bullpen posted a collective 4.40 ERA and 1.35 WHIP – but this Davis deal may represent a tipping point in relief pitcher contracts.

Let’s start with the good. Davis has recorded 59 saves over the past two seasons, recorded an ERA no higher than 2.30 for four consecutive seasons, and prior to 2017, he posted a sub-.200 ERA for three straight years. He’s been reliably dominant for quite some time, and despite Coors Field’s reputation, Greg Holland was able to rack up 41 saves in 2017. For both the Rockies and fantasy owners, Davis likely won’t struggle for saves. But…I see warning signs that Davis may be about to slip from the elite tier of relievers and I wouldn’t be willing anymore to spend a pick in the Top 5 rounds on him.

Davis’ 2.30 ERA was his highest since 2013, and even though it is stellar, it was nearly identical to his 2.29 FIP the previous season. If you know me, you know I take FIP seriously; in 2016 Davis outpitched his 2.29 FIP (1.87 ERA), and the same thing happened last year. Davis’ 2017 FIP was 3.38, much higher than the 2.30 ERA. If his ERA climbs into the 3.00 range, you’re looking at a disappointing player for where he’ll probably be drafted.

Next, he’s becoming a more extreme pitcher. Davis’ strikeout rate climbed to 12.12 in 2017, the second-highest mark of his career, but he was also walking 4.3 batters per nine innings. Last year he was very lucky, pitching to a .262 BABIP, but with that walk rate he could easily see his ERA balloon with a bit of bad luck. Oh yeah, and he’ll play half his games in high altitude now, so it’s almost a guarantee there’s going to be some regression in that BABIP.

Davis’ ground ball rate dropped eight points from 2016, and he surrendered six home runs after giving up three in the previous three years combined. That’s more alarming when you account for Davis introducing a new sinker, which he threw 3.2 percent of the time. Sinkers tend to induce ground balls, but instead Davis’ ground ball rate fell off a cliff once he began using it. The pitch was worth 0.2 runs above average per Fangraphs – a.k.a. an utterly average offering – but it means he used his four-seamer and cutter less, both of which were excellent pitches. Davis should probably ditch the sinker if it’s not going to dramatically increase ground balls, because the last thing a hurler needs when heading to the high altitude is to trend toward becoming a fly ball pitcher. Especially when said pitcher had an unusually low BABIP.

So, while I think Davis will be a fine fantasy closer, I’m bracing myself for a drop-off from his usual production. He’ll still be valuable, because saves are saves and he’s going to get lots of opportunities. But I also believe a number of closers – who will also get plenty of saves by the way – will surpass him in the ERA and WHIP categories. His move to Colorado also makes him a threat to experience an ERA spike, and continue his new home run habit. Just be careful out there drafters!